April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah once we get past the early weak system, the other systems on the models look like more normal spring storms. Days of mild drizzle and light rain. Good grass growin weather. 

[Thunder98]

Looks very zonal at the very beginning of May. Never seen a map like this that is all white.

 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Looks very zonal at the very beginning of May. Never seen a map like this that is all white.

 

That probably means there is lots of spread amongst the members and it all just averages out to a flat pattern with normal 500mb heights.    Likely won't end up looking like that in reality.  

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Bring on the downvotes but this sounds good.  I am ready to do some serious gardening.  

#readyforwarm

Hoping that Wednesday can work out.    We won't be home tomorrow when its nice.  

Here is the 12Z GFS for Wednesday afternoon:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wednesday is the one day this month I hope turns out nice. I’m going to have like 2-3 hours to spend in Eugene that evening with my wife without the kids... Looks like the rain will be moving in though.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS also shows Thursday being pretty nice up here...  but I am sure the ECMWF will say otherwise.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rob brought up something interesting. Not out of the realm of possibility PDX could challenge their wettest April of all time. They are over half way there... I think it’s a long shot but definitely worth tracking. They would need 2.30” the rest of the way. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Rob brought up something interesting. Not out of the realm of possibility PDX could challenge their wettest April of all time. They are over half way there... I think it’s a long shot but definitely worth tracking. They would need 2.30” the rest of the way. 

Ironically... we running drier than normal for April up here so far.     SEA is at -0.41 through yesterday.   Won't take much to get up normal though.   The Monday system will probably do it.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5.73” so far this month here. About 2” above normal month to date.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ironically... we running drier than normal for April up here so far.     SEA is at -0.41 through yesterday.   Won't take much to get up normal though.   The Monday system will probably do it.  

Looks pretty likely this month will end colder and wetter than normal. 1.76” so far here this month. 

[Phil]

52 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That probably means there is lots of spread amongst the members and it all just averages out to a flat pattern with normal 500mb heights.    Likely won't end up looking like that in reality.  

This.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ironically... we running drier than normal for April up here so far.     SEA is at -0.41 through yesterday.   Won't take much to get up normal though.   The Monday system will probably do it.  

BLI is below average for the calendar year. By a large amount. Lol

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

BLI is below average for the calendar year. By a large amount. Lol

Yeah... the focus has been farther south since their ridiculously wet period earlier in the rainy season.  

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the focus has been farther south since their ridiculously wet period earlier in the rainy season.  

You dropped well into the 20s last night? How did the frogs handle it? 

[Phil]

Cousin of the 8-9 rule?

2022, 2011, 1999, 1988, 1966, 1955, 1911. similar warm season patterns during all of these years.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sounds like there’s some localized thunder snow up in the port angeles area this morning. 44 here and cloudy…showers moving in from the south. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

You dropped well into the 20s last night? How did the frogs handle it? 

Actually not up here.   Low was 33 and there was just a touch of frost on the roof.   The valley is almost always colder on clear nights.      Regardless... the frogs don't care.    They will be singing all week with the occasional rain.  

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Cousin of the 8-9 rule?

2022, 2011, 1999, 1988, 1966, 1955, 1911. similar warm season patterns during all of these years.

I would personally pay a nice sum of money to follow the summer of 1911 up here.   

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would personally pay a nice sum of money to follow the summer of 1911 up here.   

11/11/1911 had some interesting weather in some places outside the PNW.

[Anti Marine Layer]

28 minutes ago, Phil said:

You dropped well into the 20s last night? How did the frogs handle it? 

Ask Kermit.

[TT-SEA]

I see the NB station dropped to 29 last night in the valley... that is the first temp in the 20s there since March 10th.    And probably the last time until next fall.  

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I see the NB station dropped to 29 last night in the valley... that is the first temp in the 20s there since March 10th.    And probably the last time until next fall.  

I have an unused high quality Davis temp/humidity sensor and console if you want it. It’s a tragedy you don’t have a backyard weather station at your location.

[TT-SEA]

Nice morning here with plenty of sun.   We are heading up to Bellingham soon... so will miss the cold rain later today.    Tomorrow looks spectacular here and up in Bellingham.     Nice timing at least for Easter festivities.  

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That probably means there is lots of spread amongst the members and it all just averages out to a flat pattern with normal 500mb heights.    Likely won't end up looking like that in reality.  

Yeah... pretty much every ensemble mean shows a pretty strong dry signal starting around 4/24 or so. Particularly in the southern PNW.

Might not be real warm in OR/WA, but CA/SW will probably roast.

[TT-SEA]

Not a bad ECMWF run considering we are still in a troughy pattern all this coming week.

There is some decent weather shown every afternoon from Tuesday - Saturday.    Monday is the only really rainy day.   Might be able to get some work done in the garden.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

11/11/1911 had some interesting weather in some places outside the PNW.

The PNW as well. Big arctic event from the same airmass that hit the rest of the country.

1911 was probably the shortest snow-free season on record for most of the Western Lowlands. Last measurable snow occurred in mid April and the first measurable snow the following winter was on November 9. So just a bit less than 7 months.

Edited April 16, 2022 by BLI snowman

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The PNW as well. Big arctic event from the same airmass that hit the rest of the country.

1911 was probably the shortest snow-free season on record for most of the Western Lowlands. Last measurable snow occurred in mid April and the first measurable snow the following winter was on November 9. So just a bit less than 7 months.

29/13 day at Snoqualmie Falls on 11/11/1911 with snow on the ground.

 

[High Desert Mat?]

On 4/15/2022 at 11:25 AM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Redmond, OR tied a record low this morning: 17 set in 1955. 

Looks like Baker City tied their record low of 17 from 2013. 

McMinnville, OR hit 27, broke their record of 28 from 1924. 

 

Woke up to about 2” of snow this morning and 27 degrees. Was light at first then picked up mid morning. Mostly melted now and 35*. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Light rain and 43 here. Could get our 6th sub 50 day of the month possibly today. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Wow heavy ice pellets radar didn’t look that impressive 5 minutes ago

[Blizzard777]

Currently in a snow shower and 51° on 217 Near Washington Square just crazy

[Deweydog]

Some angry looking clouds out there!

[Cloud]

Some localized thundersnow off of 101 this morning. Amazing videos. This reminds me couple years ago on my way to work between Bellevue and Kirkland with a sudden outburst of heavy snow that covered the freeway quickly. Elsewhere, it was bare. 

[snow_wizard]

Another flat out cold day.  After a brief spike to 48 the temp has fallen back to 45 after a low of 32.

[TacomaWaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another flat out cold day.  After a brief spike to 48 the temp has fallen back to 45 after a low of 32.

39 here. 

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Looks very zonal at the very beginning of May. Never seen a map like this that is all white.

 

The EPS shows the EPO going minus late month.  Probably pretty dry.

[Meatyorologist]

Awesome day for cloud watching

[snow_wizard]

BTW...models show a rapid clear out and probably another freeze for many places tonight.

[Omegaraptor]

28 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Currently in a snow shower and 51° on 217 Near Washington Square just crazy

I live pretty close by. 51 and snow is a pretty incredible lapse rate. Didn’t see snow or even graupel here.

[Blizzard777]

17 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I live pretty close by. 51 and snow is a pretty incredible lapse rate. Didn’t see snow or even graupel here.

 Couldn’t believe it at first. First thought was graupel but then rolled down window and looks up.   Sure enough….flakes floating down and also Snowflakes on my sweater.  I was in traffic jam at the time.  Probably 2 miles north of the mall