NEJeremy Posted January 6, 2016 Report Share Posted January 6, 2016 Getting rain in January sucks. Getting rain at night in January is even worse, but that's what we're looking at tomorrow night here. 80% chance of rain and a low of 33. Then of course the extreme cold comes and no snow for a week it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Went and got the kids from church. I don't remember ever seeing fog this thick in town. When I went in the country it was basically 0 visibility. I see Kearney is reporting 0 visibility. Crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 0.7" of snow this evening and still coming down. Nice little coating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Beautiful day today, although, it did not seem as cold because of no wind. It could be zero outside and still feel nice. Its all about the WCF. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 00z GFS stil advertising an active pattern near the Lakes and has 3 Clippers every 1-2 days...starting next Mon/Tue...not to shabby...it's going to get active around these parts. Given the pattern and the way the blocking HP south of Greenland is shaping up, some of those can slow/dig and turn into a juicy system. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 The trend in the models has been favoring a deeper -NAO/-AO regime. Both the GFS/EURO are agreeing quite well on this pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Next big storm on the horizon that correlates with both the LRC/30-day cycle is showing signs of potential on the 15th/16th. Both GFS/GGEM are showing 2 pieces of energy that should phase in the central states during this period. Right now, not much of a storm, but I will be looking for it over the coming days. This was a very dynamic storm in December that tracked out of SE CO and headed up towards the western Lakes. With tons of blocking in toe, get ready to rock and roll! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010700/gfs_mslp_wind_us_36.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 GFS is very active! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 And just think a couple days ago it virtually had nothing and everyone was jumping ship! Edit: Almost everyone....the die hards still had faith. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 12Z GFS is disgustingly cold. Not very active too for at least these parts. If this comes true, I'll be begging for May before the end of January is done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 12Z GFS is disgustingly cold. Not very active too for at least these parts. If this comes true, I'll be begging for May before the end of January is done.First artic shot sunday through early next week has modified significantly on every model http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010712/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 I guess relative to how it's been this winter, the cold will seem brutal. Looks very run-of-the-mill, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Here it is Jan 7 and it has been raining here today. I'm in the land that winter forgot.... Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 band of 35-45dbz moving north over eastern nebraska/western ia is snow. Rain is changing to snow here in north lincoln. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 giant snow flakes here coming down really hard. Picture doesn't do it justicehttp://i1228.photobucket.com/albums/ee442/jcwxguy1/Mobile%20Uploads/Screenshot_2016-01-07-14-10-32.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 7, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 giant snow flakes here coming down really hard I guess you could post in the 1/8 - 1/9 storm thread...seems like this system became more complicated than earlier projections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 Mammoth snowflakes in Lincoln right now. It's like baseball's flying around. Each time one hits my windshield it looks like it got pelted with a snowball. Unreal! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 7, 2016 Report Share Posted January 7, 2016 33 and rain here!!! Waste of a system. Darn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Fun set of years for when the January AO dropped below -5. They are 1963, 1966, 1977, 1985, and 2010. All averaged negative for the remainder of the winter. (2009-2010 (Record negative winter) and 1977 (-7.433 value on Jan 15, 1977 was the record negative day for any winter) GREAT set of years. Combined they produce a 500 mb map just like the Euro and the JMA. Better late than never folks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingyball Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm excited I might see a real winter in Columbus Ohio now, 2009-2010 in North Texas is the closest I've been so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Today was absolutely gorgeous. Sunny skies and temps were in the upper 30s to around 40F. Felt like early Spring. Also felt so nice being outside. Incredible for January standards. I actually still have patches of snow here and there. Okay.....mother nature is probably teasing us right now and saying, you just wait and see what I have to offer. Get ready!!!!!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Nice vigorous wave showing up this coming Tuesday near the Lakes. This one has some potential to lay down a 3-6" band. I think models are under playing this one. There will be some high ratio snows from this system coming down out of Manitoba. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 8, 2016 Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 Nice vigorous wave showing up this coming Tuesday near the Lakes. This one has some potential to lay down a 3-6" band. I think models are under playing this one. There will be some high ratio snows from this system coming down out of Manitoba.That wave might be the big player for snow here in SW Michigan. That might be the big lake effect event for this area for the winter we shall see. I always take the conservative approach 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 8, 2016 That wave might be the big player for snow here in SW Michigan. That might be the big lake effect event for this area for the winter we shall see. I always take the conservative approach This is the LES event I was looking for in your region post-Clipper set-up. I think you'll cash in on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Another mild day today. Amazing! Topped off at 41F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 A damp and foggy day here today. Now the low has passed and a west breeze has started. 0.09" of rain total. 2" of ice on the ground still. High 39°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 @ Niko Amazing thing over here is 8 foot high piles in parking lots that are like rocks! Or they will be as soon as that arctic air shows up for a day or so. Never in all my life do I remember Sneet piles like this. Warm rain ain't even touching 'em. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS shows a storm around the 15th-16th, we may finally have a decent snowstorm that isn't a snow/sleet mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 @ Niko Amazing thing over here is 8 foot high piles in parking lots that are like rocks! Or they will be as soon as that arctic air shows up for a day or so. Never in all my life do I remember Sneet piles like this. Warm rain ain't even touching 'em. I walked over a small pile today and I almost wiped out on it. Very slick, icy. Once there's a little snow over the ice that will give back the traction. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 GFS shows a storm around the 15th-16th, we may finally have a decent snowstorm that isn't a snow/sleet mix.thats a nice storm right now still too early to get my hopes up though. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone notice how active the GFS is?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Anyone notice how active the GFS is??Yeah, for the East Coast... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Yeah, for the East Coast...Has over 12 inches of snow for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 How's this working out for you Maxim? I'm sure once we get into January, this thread will start to get some play. Once they start realizing that the pattern change to cold and snowy will never happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Started a thread for the Clipper on Mon/Tue... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Parts of E NE/IA/S MN and N/C WI have some decent snow cover going... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201601/nsm_depth_2016010905_National.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 I still have most of my snow Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 Parts of E NE/IA/S MN and N/C WI have some decent snow cover going... http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201601/nsm_depth_2016010905_National.jpgI have maybe 3-4", definitely not 10"+. I have had snow on the ground since the 24th though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 I have maybe 3-4", definitely not 10"+. I have had snow on the ground since the 24th though!Your going to keep that snow around for quite a while, esp if that system next week can dump more snow out your way. It beats the bare ground you've seen the last 2 Winters! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 9, 2016 Report Share Posted January 9, 2016 How's this working out for you Maxim?Cold? Yeah, it's coming, we all know that. Not really sure about that "snowy pattern" though. And besides, who would even want a cold and dry pattern? I sure as hell wouldn't. What about your absurd calls about December being the exact opposite of the CFS forecast? LOL... I think you even mentioned it would end up being a December 2009 redux or something stupid like that. I've been much more accurate than you thus far, mainly because your cold and snow bias ends up clouding your judgement, so don't even try to incite an argument here buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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