TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Tuesday afternoon: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_nam/images_d2/slp.84.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Well... it shows a massive erosion for the entire west. It can't be totally wrong. UT, ID, MT, CA, OR, and WA... all warming up significantly as the flow turns. And that is a brand new run. This is a very deep cold layer. No way a weak ULL erodes all this lower level cold air that quickly. Canadian did pretty well with our last inversion back over the Thanksgiving weekend and it seems to have a good handle on the low level temps for this upcoming week IMO. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 This is a very deep cold layer. No way a weak ULL erodes all this lower level cold air that quickly. Canadian did pretty well with our last inversion back over the Thanksgiving weekend and it seems to have a good handle on the low level temps for this upcoming week IMO. I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area. Yeah...it's a tough call at this point, but we all know how terrible the models do in these types of setups. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 FWIW, 06z 2.5km Canadian shows 2-3" of snowfall for PDX metro on Sunday.... 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parksvillewx Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 24.8F here this AM. My coldest low since Feb 2014. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 11 here right now.....Wife is in Spokane to go shopping. Woke up at 5, left at 5:30... She reported: 1-Davenport -4-Reardan 2-Airway Heights 3- Downtown Spokane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Inversion is stagnating as well. Actually snowing at Snoqualmie Pass from the low clouds that worked their way up along I-90 from Ellensburg. And some low fog this morning from Olympia to SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 I am sure the models scour too quickly as usual... but there is no way the cold pool just stays in place when its showing such a massive warm-up across such a large area.It's important to note that map was at 925mb which is like 2500'? The free air up there will likely mix out, while the lowest levels in the basin and the valleys will stay much cooler and take longer to scour. Not ideal for snow though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's important to note that map was at 925mb which is like 2500'? The free air up there will likely mix out, while the lowest levels in the basin and the valleys will stay much cooler and take longer to scour. Not ideal for snow though.A dusting to 2" of snow following by Sleet and ZR problems coming..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sprinkles/light ice pellets tomorrow afternoon. Prepare now. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sprinkles/light ice pellets tomorrow afternoon. Prepare now.Sounds devastating, good thing you have a generator so you can still watch the Hawks game when the power grid gets wiped out. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Sounds devastating, good thing you have a generator so you can still watch the Hawks game when the power grid gets wiped out. Don't think I want to watch the Hawks game tomorrow. Might be our first blow-out loss in a long time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 12Z GFS has the light precip tomorrow evening and then a little more on Tuesday and then goes back to dry for the rest of the week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 12Z GFS has the light precip tomorrow evening and then a little more on Tuesday and then goes back to dry for the rest of the week.Yeah. Jet looks more suppressed...Watch for any southwestward digging arctic troughs in Canada 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 WRF shows a huge warm up across the west as by Monday... but more accurately shows the cold air in the Gorge hanging tough. Now: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/slp.03.0000.gif Monday morning:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/xslp.51.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.nLL8jIuyoM.png Still... I think Monday is going to feel pretty warm around the Seattle area compared to recent days. Dewpoints above freezing and temps in the upper 40s. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Don't think I want to watch the Hawks game tomorrow. Might be our first blow-out loss in a long time.Yeah, it could be as ugly as that map you posted earlier! Just hope we can make it through the game without any major injuries. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Yeah, it could be as ugly as that map you posted earlier! Just hope we can make it through the game without any major injuries. Just play all back-ups and concede a 50-point loss and try to go into the playoffs a little more rested. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 *********HUGE WARM UP WATCH ISSUED********* Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Definite digging trough southwest towards us arctic air steadily progressing south-southwest through BC/AB. That weak low offshore may not stop it, so it could slide down over us, or at least into eastern Washington for backdoor arctic air. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010212/gfs_T850_namer_32.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 22º dp 11º in the West Hills with very gusty winds. I've been getting wind chill values in the low single digits all night and this morning. Be lucky to get out of the 20's today. Fair to say this is more than just "fake cold" at this point.But did you hear it might warm up eventually? Don't you even think about enjoying this!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 26.4, colder than I expected. We can go ahead and call this a modified blast(low-level). East wind is insane this morning 40-50mph gusts right now no question. It is raging much stronger than anything Friday. The gusts are so loud. I'm a little concerned about my fir and elm tree as well about power outages. Cold air continues to deepen in and up over the Gorge.Three Corner Rock at 3450' is now down to 11 degrees. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TRKW1&table=1&banner=off I also see east wind has developed again up at Larch Mt. 1150'http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=TR951&table=1&banner=off 6z GFSWow. Potential Snow/Ice Storm for PDX at day 10. Also accompanying this is a likely major downslope/east wind storm with a OTH-GEG downslope gradient of 24-25mb shown. A backdoor arctic blast moves into eastern Washington thanks to a mega-strong 1058mb arctic high dropping into Montana. Since this is the first run of any kind to show this we'll consider it an outlier, but let's keep an eye on any chance of this most exciting possibility.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_40.pngHaha makes sense if that were to happen, it's after I leave! Can't check the models at the moment but hopefully Salt Lake can get in on the action. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GFS was a bit close to giving us a cold northeast blast.... close but nope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Heading to Bend for a snowshoe trip today. Should be absolutely gorgeous over there. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Heading to Bend for a snowshoe trip today. Should be absolutely gorgeous over there.Around Devils or Sparks Lake would be awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 NWS Seattle should really be posting some frost accumulation advisories! Getting thick on my deck rail! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8 That is exactly what the WRF shows late this week and next weekend. Looks like Canadian would be similar. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canadian guy Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Definite digging trough southwest towards us arctic air steadily progressing south-southwest through BC/AB. That weak low offshore may not stop it, so it could slide down over us, or at least into eastern Washington for backdoor arctic air. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010212/gfs_T850_namer_32.pngThat trough has definitely been trending to the south west over the last few gfs runs. Still very far out though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 That trough has definitely been trending to the south west over the last few gfs runs. Still very far out though.Yes it has you're right. It's a nice trend let's keep it going.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 If anything we may see another Columbia Basin cold pool developing after day 6-8 Next Saturday... its back. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/xslp.168.0000.gif.pagespeed.ic.PCWcdk8woj.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 NWS Seattle should really be posting some frost accumulation advisories! Getting thick on my deck rail!Why in the hell would you want to cause region wide panic?... Just plain silly!! 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Highs/Lows past 8 days 3 mi S of Rexburg, ID 4,860 ft Jan 2: /-15Jan 1: 12/-16Dec 31: 7/-14Dec 30: 13/-8Dec 29: 12/-9Dec 28: 12/-7Dec 27: 8/-17Dec 26: 10/-5Dec 25: 16/5 Ready for spring. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 WRF actually showing some light snow accumulation here for Monday morning. Trace to 2" on the 4Km. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 What Tim is saying about the ULL makes sense if you think about it. There is no way these week systems would be able to break through the ridge if the ULL wasn't opening the door. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 12z GEM also shows a cold pool developing by day 7 and at day 9-10 gives PDX a possible Ice/Snow storm(if cold enough air is pulls west over PDX) shows very strong east winds, so maybe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 What Tim is saying about the ULL makes sense if you think about it. There is no way these week systems would be able to break through the ridge if the ULL wasn't opening the door.That ULL is saving PDX from an ice storm next week if you ask me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Kind of interesting not seeing any moderating or mixing at 850/925mb south of the ULL in extreme southern/southeast Oregon. Could it be so weak that it's not going to scour anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 Kind of interesting not seeing any moderating or mixing at 850/925mb south of the ULL in extreme southern/southeast Oregon. Could it be so weak that it's not going to scour anything.It's a cold system. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 2, 2016 Report Share Posted January 2, 2016 It's a cold system.It's the arctic blast originating from Mexico dream scenario of mine.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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