January 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know it will snow at my house as well.

 

Not exactly a big deal though.   

 

I think about 10" would make it a decent month. Thats not asking for to much. I had 10" of snow in December 2012 and 16.5" of snow in February 2012.

[TT-SEA]

I think about 10" would make it a decent month. Thats not asking for to much. I had 10" of snow in December 2012 and 16.5" of snow in February 2012.

 

I would be surprised if I don't get a foot of snow next month.    Might miss most of it in Hawaii though.    Not that it would bother me.      

[Jesse]

Something about how I will definitely see snow next month.

 

Something about how I don't care about it anyway, attempting to make everyone else without that kind of guarantee feel badly.

[TT-SEA]

Something about how I will definitely see snow next month.

 

Something about how I don't care about it anyway, attempting to make everyone else without that kind of guarantee feel badly.

 

 

I just don't get real excited about snow starting in February.   

 

By the middle of March its downright annoying.

 

Compare that to my attitude in late November and December when I am totally jacked up about even a small possibility of snow and model ride with the best.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty close to snow next Friday evening with a low offshore... ample moisture... and a low offshore on the 00Z GFS.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_171_precip_p06.gif

 

Something to watch at least.    Despite my lack of excitement... my kids would still LOVE some snow.  

[GobBluth]

Ridge is just way too close to the coast again. Rinse, repeat.

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z  keeps the ridge a little to close to us but still looks chilly out to hour 190ish...  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yawn

[Guest Monty67]

00z is probably a more realistic solution when compared with early today when sub500 thickness was crossing the border into whatcom county.

[Jesse]

Yawn

 

That wasn't in the thesaurus.

 

Way to think outside the box!

[Canadian guy]

Ensembles are good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ensembles are fantastic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ensembles are good!

 

 

The ensembles are fantastic.

Yes they are. Several more members near -10c.

[snow_wizard]

Very nice ensemble tonight.  Many members drop below -10.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Very nice ensemble tonight.  Many members drop below -10.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

I am loving the consistent improvements!!

[snow_wizard]

The GEM is a thing of beauty tonight also.

[GobBluth]

The GEM is a thing of beauty tonight also.

Serious precip with 850s under 0 - mountains could be in catch-up mode next weekend.

[whitechristmas]

Yes they are. Several more members near -10c.

 

But...will they stay that way?? YES PLEASE!!

[westiztehbest]

The GEM is a thing of beauty tonight also.

I like the position of the low.

 

 

Heights get lower for Super Sunday and beyond.

 

 

[Deweydog]

Insomniac special!  The 6z gets chilly.  Too bad the long days of February will keep highs in the 20's as opposed to teens.

[Brennan]

Insomniac special!  The 6z gets chilly.  Too bad the long days of February will keep highs in the 20's as opposed to teens.

SUPER insomniac special. Not only does the 6z get chilly, it gets WARM! ... In the EAST! 

 

but on the real. EPIC 6z. I’ll go to sleep happy and not look at any models until I catch wind there is another epic model run, and forget everything in between. 

 

Jesse probably thinks I’m drunk... At least that’s what he said he thought I was in most of my posts in a PM he sent me.

[Phil]

Significant snowfall totals were reported from Houston TX, through Louisiana down to the Gulf coast of Mississippi..LOL

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/01/screenhunter_305-jan-24-05-41.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the 06z goes a little crazy. The ensembles continue to improve however.

[luvssnow_spokane]

DID you See that!!!????  NO really.... Did you see that.. What you say?...   The 06z!!!????  omG! Merry Christmas to us a month later!!     ----  Where the hell is the Gorton the Fisherman!?

[Skagit Weather]

06z still dry as a bone though. It would be interesting to see the mood on here if we had another great arctic blast with no precipitation.

[westcoastexpat]

 

Finally a mountain snow maker

[AnthonyC]

I'm really liking the improvements on the GEM and GFS.  The EURO is still a mess.

 

Just getting a more consolidated flow could do wonders for us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z still dry as a bone though. It would be interesting to see the mood on here if we had another great arctic blast with no precipitation.

 

It would be disappointing, but I don't think we'd have much right to complain.

 

I doubt we are going to get a major blast though. I think some cold maritime is more likely. I really like where the ensembles have been going.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This video was shot by Tyler Mode yesterday at Crown Point...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=-Zo6CBG5dTM

[TT-SEA]

It would be disappointing, but I don't think we'd have much right to complain.

 

I doubt we are going to get a major blast though. I think some cold maritime is more likely. I really like where the ensembles have been going.

 

 

My thought as well.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing how varied the temps were in the Puget Sound lowlands today. 43-29 here while SEA checked in with 55-34. This has consistently been one of the colder spots this winter. My January average is below 40 now.

 

Me bets the fog will be much more stubborn over the weekend than the past couple of days.

 

 

Does not look like it.    Basically clear most everywhere already this morning... even for you.  

 

Might be the opposite of yesterday at your location today... with sunshine all day long.

 

Tomorrow could be a little more foggy but we are getting close to transitioning out of the inversion season anyways.       

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 27 up here this morning.

[AnthonyC]

Does not look like it.    Basically clear most everywhere already this morning... even for you.  

 

Might be the opposite of yesterday at your location today... with sunshine all day long.

 

Tomorrow could be a little more foggy but we are getting close to transitioning out of the inversion season anyways.       

 

I've seen essentially NO fog from this entire pattern...the offshore flow has been strong enough to keep it away.  Another beautiful day.

[Jesse]

I think some sort of arctic intrusion is certainly possible. Lots of cold air over the NH to work with, and what appears to be a large scale retrogression of the pattern than has dominated North America the last 3-4 weeks.

 

If things stay amplified enough, a tap into some arctic air sometime over the next 2-3 weeks is not out of the question IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a lot of mid-20s in the Willamette Valley this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like EUG is running a -0.9 departure for January.

 

PDX +0.4

SLE +0.1

 

So essentially average temps this month in the Willamette Valley.

[westcoastexpat]

I think some sort of arctic intrusion is certainly possible. Lots of cold air over the NH to work with, and what appears to be a large scale retrogression of the pattern than has dominated North America the last 3-4 weeks.

 

I think that based on the reasonable range (<10 days out), there will be a return to more seasonable weather (rainier, cooler upper layers, mountain snows). At this stage a full-on arctic outbreak is not in the cards, but I think modified, transient arctic air is certainly likely. I don't think a large scale synoptic snow storm dropping 4"+ is all that likely but I would be surprised if most places didn't pick up at least some snow in February.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think some sort of arctic intrusion is certainly possible. Lots of cold air over the NH to work with, and what appears to be a large scale retrogression of the pattern than has dominated North America the last 3-4 weeks.

 

If things stay amplified enough, a tap into some arctic air sometime over the next 2-3 weeks is not out of the question IMO.

 

I've been hurt to many times to start getting to excited yet.

 

Going to be a FANTASTIC day again! 

[Jesse]

Looks like EUG is running a -0.9 departure for January.

 

PDX +0.4

SLE +0.1

 

So essentially average temps this month in the Willamette Valley.

Springlike!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE pulled off a 56/28 yesterday which ends up being a daily departure of 0.