PNW September 2022 Wx Obs/Disc

[Meatyorologist]

11 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Wishcasting

Day 10-16 GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, Rainfall totals, Snowfall totals.

HERE WE GO! The first real deal big league trough of the Fall season way out in la-la land! Models have begun to show the infamous wishcasting/eye candy type stuff in the Day 10-16 time frame and that will only become more common throughout the Fall and Winter months. I often wonder why any model extends out that far as the degree of accuracy is nearly non-existent. BUT dang it isn't it fun to look at! YEAH it is. This isn't to be taken seriously it's more of a "What IF?" post, plus it's boring right now. I think you figured that out though. C'MON!!!!

 

 

Welcome back!

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That’s because arctic amplification ceases during the spring/summer. In a month or two those anomalies will spike again.

Makes sense.  Unless the Arctic is cold this winter.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

@snow_wizard here is another one.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

All in all I like the amount of blue on the globe right now.  It isn't exactly "on fire" like some are saying.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very warm day. Pulled the animals off the lower pasture for about 9 months and the scotch broom exploded... ugh 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Anyone watching Ian?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/25/ian-could-become-major-hurricane-targets-florida-what-we-know/8113790001/

Universities already evacuated - gonna be bad.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very warm day. Pulled the animals off the lower pasture for about 9 months and the scotch broom exploded... ugh 

Is that your land?  Looks real nice.

[Blizzard777]

16 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Just watched it again and noticed that there was a big party in your neighborhood tonight!

Lol, I wasn’t invited  but I enjoyed listening to the music and fun

[Blizzard777]

16 hours ago, Doiinko said:

That's an amazing sunset!

It was crazy the way it played out….with the setup I knew it was going to be a fun one but didn’t go down to the waterfront to experience.  Missed opportunity but I did enjoy from my yard.  

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Anyone watching Ian?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/25/ian-could-become-major-hurricane-targets-florida-what-we-know/8113790001/

Universities already evacuated - gonna be bad.

The G and H storms must have been duds.  Never heard anything about those.  I've been watching the models on this one for a while.

[NWbyNW]

69F degrees with blue sky and thick, heavy smoke towards the east and Cascade's.  Hate seeing the smoke keep coming back here.

We need rain so bad.  The forecasts keep teasing us by saying there will be rain at the end of next week, then when it doesn't come, they do the same tease over and over.  We've had ONE measurable rainfall day at my house since July. Everything is green, but the ground is SO dry. 

[YahRaEl]

76° high so far here in Belltown Seattle 

[FroYoBro]

Almost tacked on another 90 here in Tigard. 88 for a high. 

[Phil]

EPS is an ocean of warmth. Especially western Canada.

[Phil]

Dehydration.

[TT-SEA]

Glad I didn't stay home watching Seattle's miserable sports teams today!   82 degrees and sunny here on Lake Tapps.   A perfect summer day.  

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Anyone watching Ian?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#09L

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/09/25/ian-could-become-major-hurricane-targets-florida-what-we-know/8113790001/

Universities already evacuated - gonna be bad.

Extrap pressure already down to near 990mb this evening. My Dad lives in Sarasota and this’ll be a pretty close call for them.

[Phil]

And here we go. Big tower going up right over the LLC.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Dehydration.

We are going to flip the script big time this winter. As in very cold in W Canada and wet zonal flow SLAMMIN' the west coast. MBG. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are going to flip the script big time this winter. As in very cold in W Canada and wet zonal flow SLAMMIN' the west coast. MBG. 

I don’t think so. Though anything is possible.

Most of the indicators for a strong cold season NPAC jet are quite anemic/inverted in tendency. Hard to say if/when that will change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice arctic blast in lala land. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think so.

What do you think?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t think so.

Hmmmm. I'm dreaming of a January 1953 redux. 

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice arctic blast in lala land. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highs barely crack 50 in the Willamette Valley at the end of the run. 25 degrees cooler than the 12z. 

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

What do you think?

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

My suspicion is either we go with a poleward+zonal outcome like 1999/00 or a blocked up GOA/AK (which could be a cold/dry outcome).

The low frequency circulation does not resemble wet/stormy winters on the West Coast, but there’s a first time for everything so who knows.

Not exactly a typical year…3rd year niña and a massive load of stratospheric H2O will make for an interesting case study.

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

What hemlock looper moths plus the accumulated stress of summer after summer of heat and drought will do. This is what Stanley Park now looks like. Everything is fine, anyone saying the world is burning is engaged in baseless accusations.

[TT-SEA]

80 at SEA today.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I've seen 1956/57 come up as an analog a few times, what do you think about that as one?

I don’t think that’s a great analog. Much narrower z-cell background in addition to -QBO/solar min.

There are more viable (and more recent) analogs for seasonal scale stuff, IMO. But again, anything is possible. I don’t have the answers.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

The video I tried to attach doesn't play as a video for me. In case others are having issues, I uploaded it to YouTube.

 

[Phil]

The GEFS keeps trending more splitty in the long range, which has been the theme for the last several months.

In general the northern jet has been both weaker and farther to the north overall.

[TacomaWx]

75/51 today. Think there’s a bit of smoke in the air this evening too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

[T-Town]

26 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

75/51 today. Think there’s a bit of smoke in the air this evening too.

Yeah pretty hazy. I don’t smell smoke though. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

77/53˚F for the day today. No smoke noted.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So pleasant this evening. Praying for rain, but enjoying the moment. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Seems as if there's another red flag warning in effect for the Washington Cascades.

 

[bainbridgekid]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

80 at SEA today.

Decent chance they get three straight 80 degree days. Can’t imagine that’s happened often this late in the year before but I’m not sure how to efficiently look up that stat.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Having Phil OUT on this winter is the first positive sign we have had in weeks. 

Never said I was out on the winter. Just that I don’t think there’ll be a very strong jet or wet regime in general.

Which if anything could increase the odds for continental cold and lowland snowfall. Not sure how that qualifies as me being “out” on winter.

[snow_wizard]

OK...let's lock in the 18z GFS.  Kind of fun.