TT-SEA Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I knew there would be a rain shadow, but this is one of the larger and more distinct ones you'll see. Yeah... its even reached out here at times. It was dry most of the morning. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 57 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Yes, Costco is on board. Your Wife is ready for it… 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Eujunga said: EUG has a well-deserved reputation for being colder at night than just about anywhere in the area, especially in the kind of clear, calm pattern we had for most of October. My October average low to date is 49.4. Jim doesn't live at SEA. Pretty sure his October average low to date is quite a bit colder than that. But by all means carry on with your narrative. Been a pretty warm month for the whole region, microclimates that do and don’t favor radiational cooling aside. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 57 here with breezy SW winds. Got down to 49 this morning. Rain shadow has been quite strong here just 0.02” since midnight and 1.28” MTD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Eventually the rain shadow will give and we should get a decent soaking before the month ends…taking us well out of contention for driest October I’ve recorded. We also won’t be getting our warmest October on record…should finish roughly 0.5-0.7 degrees cooler than 2014. The first half of this month was much warmer than the first half of 2014 but 2014 was consistently warmer overall than 2022. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2.01", still coming down hard. 1 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 37 minutes ago, Eujunga said: Seems like a lot of arguments on here start when people extrapolate that the weather in their backyard applies to the region as a whole, or when they cherry-pick isolated data points to support a narrative (I'm guilty of this at times). That's when I like to look at the ACIS maps to get a more accurate overall picture of the region. In this case, they verify that the nights this October have overall been on the warm side, and that it has in fact been drier than normal in most of Oregon and Washington (thus supporting my heat/drought narrative). Yeah, there's definitely a wide range of microclimates on here. I mean in my backyard, the average temperature this month will end up being cooler than 2014, 2015, and 2016. Even the average high will end up below October 2014, mostly because when it was 88F in Seattle the other day it was only 74F here. And after the rain today/tomorrow I'll end up above average on rainfall for the month. So based on my station this October will look slightly wetter than average with a close to average mean temperature and a warmer than average high temperature. But of course, that is not really representative of most of the area. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 18z looks good! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 18z is a big improvement. 5 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Up to .51” on the day. raining and 49. 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: 18z is a big improvement. This block in Alaska is huge! Hoping that's a consistent feature this winter 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 As my other esteemed colleagues mentioned the 18z is up to its usual drunken antics which I wholeheartedly approve of by the way. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 18z has a high in the mid 30s for KSEA on the 7th. 7 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 18z has a high in the mid 30s for KSEA on the 7th. Drops Vancouver BC into the mid-teens too! 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 thinking by this time next week we'll have something fun to follow on this side of the state 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 IF, and I'm saying it's a huge IF, but IF the 18z GEFS were to unexpectedly and miraculously follow the op run, I am going to need adult diapers this evening. I still think Halloween 00z runs are going to be bonkers! C'MON!!!! 00z GFS in 5 hours 1 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Sub 500dm 1000-500mb thickness values into interior BC this run. That is a big deal in the heart of winter. I've seen worse airmasses do good work. 4 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 And a high around freezing with brilliantly clear skies on the 8th?! 1 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 18z GFS first 10 days: 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 18z GFS smashes 11/8's daily min/max by 10F, the current record holder being a high of 43F on 11/8/1973. 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 I know it's one run but it's definitely fun to look at 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Eujunga said: Drunkle hitting the Finlandia! that should get these pesky green leaves outta here lol 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Druncle made an appearance on SNL last night, so it's definitely coming 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 That would be something special if it happened considering how long the last few months have gone. Seems likely there will be some chilly weather coming up but if I had to guess it’ll probably be some days in the upper 30s low 40s at best…maybe some CZ/Foothill snows just based on climo. Would be cool if the 18z verified tho! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 After looking more closely at the 18z. 1 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 The package is delivered on the 18z GFS. Very cold! 1 8 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 6 Model comparison, 18z Op, GEFS 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Even SEA will miss its warmest October on record by just a hair. Both of you guys routinely overstate the north south temp gradient in the region, just in inverse ways. Just to get your goat on my part. Seriously though using SEA for average min this month is very unrepresentative of what the mins have been up here on a broader scale. If not for the lows being within reason this month would have shattered 2014s record. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Pretty sure the 18z would be historic cold for so early. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 7 - GFS, GEFS. I don't think the ensembles get there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 7 - GFS, GEFS. I don't think the ensembles get there. ALL COMES DOWN TO THE NEXT FEW FRAMES!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 The good news is all of the models show very cold air reaching southern BC. The million dollar question is does it get over the border. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The good news is all of the models show very cold air reaching southern BC. The million dollar question is does it get over the border. I'll wager a 82% chance it does not. 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: I'll wager a 82% chance it does not. 00z ECMWF in 6 hours 33 minutes The problem with the GEFS at this range is that at the end of the day all the members are based on the GFS. So they will waffle around as much as the OP does this far out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 Just now, RentonHillTC said: The problem with the GEFS at this range is that at the end of the day all the members are based on the GFS. So they will waffle around as much as the OP does this far out. Wafflez! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close. The general pattern looks similar to me just a lot less amplified because it's an ensemble mean. It's definitely not as great as the operational, but not that bad in my opinion. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 8 - GFS, GEFS. Not even close. That's actually quite good for an ensemble mean 8 days out. Pretty clear most members are in agreement with the operational. 4 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 OP and control def on the low end but they are a) in agreement and b) not crazy far off from the bulk of other members 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted October 30, 2022 Report Share Posted October 30, 2022 34 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: After looking more closely at the 18z. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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