Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Thank you! Wow... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: KGEG? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Randyc321 said: Here in reality....47 right now here on Bainbridge, .22 for the day, but it fell before daylight. Actually feels a bit chilly outside. It’s been a wet day in this part of reality too. Well over an inch on the day. Looks like PDX should crack 3” for the month. 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: It’s been a wet day in this part of reality too. Well over an inch on the day. Looks like PDX should crack 3” for the month. I just passed 5" for the month. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: KGEG? What city is that? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 The run to run change on the ensemble is quite impressive. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. so basically a winter version of an unprecedented summer heatwave no one said was possible, until it happened? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. First time for everything I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: What city is that? Spokane 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: so basically a winter version of an unprecedented summer heatwave no one said was possible, until it happened? 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: First time for everything I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. Much much rarer to pull off anomalous cold then anomalous warmth nowadays. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. Although if 108 degrees could take place , then so could this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Spokane 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Much much rarer to pull off anomalous cold then anomalous warmth nowadays. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: King Euro gunna be like the GFS is on ACID..... ......and I want SOME I want some DMT 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: HOLY SHIITT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. I think we have gone against climo a few times the past couple of years. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Got dayum... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Phishy Wx said: HOLY SHIITT I’m sorry. Does that say -19?! 1 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 minute ago, kokaneekidz said: Although if 108 degrees could take place , then so could this. We would need a February 1989 blast temps or colder out of this to even come close to how anomalous that 108 was. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Dude got into the ((((((Deemsters))))))) divine moments of truth 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 This would be a few days earlier than 1955 which would be quite impressive, although October 1935 was very extreme and a couple of weeks earlier. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Block actually makes a bit of sense on the 00z. Might this actually happen? The details may come together. 6 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: We would need a February 1989 blast temps or colder out of this to even come close to how anomalous that 108 was. November 85 was a never forgettable occasion. Yet the Temps were just garden variety 20s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Block actually makes a bit of sense on the 00z. Might this actually happen? The details may come together. The 00z brings record cold temps to the area but 850mb temps don't actually get that cold in Portland. Just very cold low levels and deep snowcover I guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Temps have fallen through the 40s here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: First time for everything I'm pretty sure last summer went against climo. Our climate has changed. The old rules don’t apply. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I think we have gone against climo a few times the past couple of years. 90% of time it’s warmer than normal. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 don't wanna get too confident yet but dang 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, TacomaWx said: 90% of time it’s warmer than normal. Extremes usually go both ways. Would make sense to get the ball bounce cold this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Things I might need to do this weekend. 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: Things I might need to do this weekend. From jetski to John Deere.. this guy gets it! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 Wasn't just about everyone skeptical of the idea of lowland snow in mid-April when the models were showing it, and then possibly the most impressive April cold snap/snow event since the ultra-blocky 1930s unfolded? Nothing is off the table. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 I like where the Euro has this. A bit concerned about the NW lobe bombing out a bit too far west, but we'll see. 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: November cold history is DOMINATED by either backdoor setups or quasi-progressive clippers. This would be somewhat off the charts just from a 500mb perspective. Late October 2003 was another longwave behemoth but it was a much more traditional retrogression pattern. With a lack of moisture. Just lip cracking dry a** weather 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 1, 2022 Report Share Posted November 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Pulled this from cliff masses blog. For some of y’all who are wondering why there’s skepticism…1 the gfs has known issues overdoing snow/cold. 2 is this graph showing snowfalls over the period of record (1945-2016). There’s almost nothing in the first 1/3 of November historically. Something modeled like the gfs is showing completely goes against climo. That graphic comes from the wrcc site. Lots of great stats in there! FWIW 1971 had 2 inches on Oct. 27th and 1.4 inches on Nov 11, 1955 and 4.6 inches on Nov 17, also 1955. https://wrcc.dri.edu/Climsum.html 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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