October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I think it'll be both 

I remember 2006 it was a very wet start to the month of November with flooding and ending with an Arctic outbreak and snow. 

That entire winter was amazing! Flooding to massive snow and cold in November, massive windstorm in December, very nice arctic blast/snow in January, and more snow in February! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

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Day 4

[Skagit Weather]

38 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least the GFS is finally wet! lol 

It takes forever to get there though. The next week is still relatively dry in Washington (of course still way wetter than anything we've seen so far).

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Day 5

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM 10 Day GIF

Yea, let's do exactly this all winter.

[smerfylicious]

Good news everyone! My AQI dropped today from 350 to currently 273! Feels nice to breathe clean air again

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Day 6

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Day 7

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Day 8

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00z GEFS was a bit wet!

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Day 10

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00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

What happened to day 9?

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

What happened to day 9?

Just seeing if y'all were awake.

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Off-topic

Explosion?

A few minutes ago out here near west Gresham I just heard a tremendous explosion. So LOUD! It even created a percussion blast and shook my house. Such force! I've never heard anything like that even an M-1000, or exploding targets/tannerite. Any ideas?

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Off-topic

Explosion?

A few minutes ago out here near west Gresham I just heard a tremendous explosion. So LOUD! It even created a percussion blast and shook my house. Such force! I've never heard anything like that even an M-1000, or exploding targets/tannerite. Any ideas?

Maybe someone Is celebrating the pattern change?

The only other thing I can think of is a blown transformer 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Maybe someone Is celebrating the pattern change?

The only other thing I can think of is a blown transformer 

Dude. A blown transformer has never sounded like that. I heard the blast, the sound expanding, and then two-three seconds later the percussion wave slammed into my house. I cannot imagine what caused that. Bolide meteor exploding? Massive propane tank? Meth house explosion? I dunno.

[Phil]

Snowing in Indiana.  

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Snowing in Indiana.  

 

Hell yes!!

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00z CMCE slightly damp

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We got a night shift going!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

We got a night shift going!!

I ain't gonna be able to sleep after that explosion.

6z GFS in 1 hour 24 minutes

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My Brother and I have blown up massive exploding targets while target shooting and you could feel the percussion blast hit us after, but nothing compares to this.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEFS was a bit wet!

Like a 4y/o with a cold.

Looks drippy

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00z EPS

[Jbolin]

4 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

Off-topic

Explosion?

A few minutes ago out here near west Gresham I just heard a tremendous explosion. So LOUD! It even created a percussion blast and shook my house. Such force! I've never heard anything like that even an M-1000, or exploding targets/tannerite. Any ideas?

#1 Do you see an orange glow in the sky? 

#2 Are any of your windows cracked?

#3 Do you hear any EMS/ESU sirens?

#Have you lost power, even briefly?

 

Side note: Tannerite is capable of producing shockwaves that can and do cause destruction but most (targets) rarely exceed 2 lbs. Plus anyone stupid enough to be within 100ft of an exploding (target) could be subjected to upwards of 20psi. (Resulting in moderate/severe internal organ damage/falure, internal bleeding, deafness, shrapnel, etc).

Furthermore, to produce a shockwave that large, we'd be talking about at least 100lbs, if not more and your domicile and nearby structures would be "f*****d"

Secondly, there is the possibility of a close-cap "burnout" of certain meteors in where, the outer layer "flash melts" instantly and results in an immediate explosion reverberating the highest levels of our atmosphere. (Similar to the Chelyabinsk meteor Feb 2013)

(However, Chelyabinsk was a very close example of what we'd likely experience in an E.L.E.)

Third would be an LPG/LNG explosion underground resulting in an up/out blast with psi values on the order of (3) with psi of (5) severely damaging sturdy concrete structures (so I highly doubt it was this).

I can't genuinely think of any other "natural/manmade" possibilities.

[Gradient Keeper]

12 minutes ago, JBolin said:

#1 Do you see an orange glow in the sky? 

#2 Are any of your windows cracked?

#3 Do you hear any EMS/ESU sirens?

#Have you lost power, even briefly?

 

Side note: Tannerite is capable of producing shockwaves that can and do cause destruction but most (targets) rarely exceed 2 lbs. Plus anyone stupid enough to be within 100ft of an exploding (target) could be subjected to upwards of 20psi. (Resulting in moderate/severe internal organ damage/falure, internal bleeding, deafness, shrapnel, etc).

Furthermore, to produce a shockwave that large, we'd be talking about at least 100lbs, if not more and your domicile and nearby structures would be "f*****d"

Secondly, there is the possibility of a close-cap "burnout" of certain meteors in where, the outer layer "flash melts" instantly and results in an immediate explosion reverberating the highest levels of our atmosphere.

Third would be an LPG/LNG explosion underground resulting in an up/out blast with psi values on the order of (3) with psi of (5) severely damaging sturdy concrete structures (so I highly doubt it was this).

I can't genuinely think of any other "natural/manmade" possibilities.

All of my vertical blinds were shut. The answer is NO to all of those. I heard no jet before it, so would we then rule out military and sonic boom. Meteor hmmm...

[Sonny Summers]

21 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z EPS

That will get the stupid fires out

[Jbolin]

12 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

All of my vertical blinds were shut. The answer is NO to all of those. I heard no jet before it, so would we then rule out military and sonic boom. Meteor hmmm...

Yes, as it's illegal for ANY aircraft including military to go supersonic below FL-60T as the restricted/controlled airspace extends from the surface to FL-60T.

There are some "exceptions" that allow for TFR's that permit supersonic speed, i.e. national security issues, unresponsive aircraft and external domestic threats.

The last time the FAA allowed unrestricted access for supersonic flight below the aforementioned FL's was 9/11/2001

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, JBolin said:

Yes, as it's illegal for ANY aircraft including military to go supersonic below FL-60T as the restricted/controlled airspace extends from the surface to FL-60T.

There are some "exceptions" that allow for TFR's that permit supersonic speed, i.e. national security issues, unresponsive aircraft and external domestic threats.

The last time the FAA allowed unrestricted access for supersonic flight below the aforementioned FL's was 9/11/2001

Interesting. I've heard several sonic booms in my life, it was never anything like this. I could hear the explosion very deep, low rumble, huge boom several miles away and 3 maybe 4 seconds later the percussion wave hit the back of my house west facing enough to shake it a little. I hope this morning there will be some answers.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

All of my vertical blinds were shut. The answer is NO to all of those. I heard no jet before it, so would we then rule out military and sonic boom. Meteor hmmm...

This is the "likely" culprit Rob. It was a bolide consisting primarly of (Mg/Fe)

Delayed sound noted 16.32sec after entry. It's very possible due to its path (NE to SW) directly over the Gorge, the sound was magnified by the topography. 

[Gradient Keeper]

8 minutes ago, JBolin said:

This is the "likely" culprit Rob. It was a bolide consisting primarly of (Mg/Fe)

Delayed sound noted noted 16.32sec after entry. It's very possible due to its path (NE to SW) directly over the Gorge, the sound was magnified by the topography. 

I dunno this happened 10/19 like 12:10 AM?

[Jbolin]

18 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I dunno this happened 10/19 like 12:10 AM?

That is the report time from the PR, the actual notation from the Meteor network was 10-19-22 12:03:55 a.m.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

That is the report time from the PR, the actual notation from the Meteor network was 10-19-22 12:03:55 a.m.

Interesting. I figured there would have been a ton of reports of a fireball, a flash, something. Thanks for all of the info.

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Interesting. I figured there would have been a ton of reports of a fireball, a flash, something. Thanks for all of the info.

A lot folks inside, sleeping, etc. 

Who knows but you're welcome 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS still looks good. Gonna hit the hay.

[Requiem]

Interesting that EURO has been persistent in showing a weak but fast moving and rapidly intensifying low hit the Oregon coast somewhere N of Tillamook-- obviously too early but worth keeping an eye on.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

Interesting. I figured there would have been a ton of reports of a fireball, a flash, something. Thanks for all of the info.

People on next door are reporting a bomb thrown from a car. 

[Jbolin]

25 minutes ago, The Blob said:

People on next door are reporting a bomb thrown from a car. 

People on Nextdoor "speculating" is like a six y/o telling me he has proof dinosaurs exsist because he watched Jurrasic Park.