October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

6 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

It takes forever to get there though. The next week is still relatively dry in Washington (of course still way wetter than anything we've seen so far).

Exactly. It always gets pushed out. Friday night once looked really wet for all. So did Sunday night. Now, it’s the middle of next week. It eventually will be, but we need it yesterday. Actually, we need it six weeks ago. 

[TT-SEA]

The 00Z ECMWF was not exactly crazy wet.   There is a big pattern change coming and the air will be clean again and the fires should be out... but not sure about making up rainfall deficits yet.    Although the 00Z EPS and control run hinted at flat ridging and some sort of AR event for SW BC and western WA after day 10 which would quickly make up for lost ground.

[The Blob]

[The Blob]

29 minutes ago, JBolin said:

People on Nextdoor "speculating" is like a six y/o telling me he has proof dinosaurs exsist because he watched Jurrasic Park.

There was also a video from someone's door bell . But I feel most of nextdoor is where all the Karen's congregate. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, The Blob said:

This smoke situation is going out with a miserable bang.     The I-5 corridor is trapped in hell right now... there is not enough east wind to mix things up but there is also very little onshore flow either with warm air aloft preventing ventilation upward.  Just a stew of thick smoke accumulating from all the new fire starts over the weekend.

Good news is that the smoke is going to be thoroughly scoured out by tomorrow well before the rain event arrives on Friday.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

1 hour ago, The Blob said:

People on next door are reporting a bomb thrown from a car. 

Oh, it sure the heck sounded like a bomb. I still cannot believe it. I can still hear that "rumble" as the percussion blast wave moved outward from the explosion then hit my house and all others around here too. If it wasn't a bomb thrown from car which would be very strange, could a butane oil explosion be that powerful? I hope there is more reported this morning on it. Thanks!

12z ECMWF in 4 hours 45 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF was not exactly crazy wet.   There is a big pattern change coming and the air will be clean again and the fires should be out... but not sure about making up rainfall deficits yet.    Although the 00Z EPS and control run hinted at flat ridging and some sort of AR event for SW BC and western WA after day 10 which would quickly make up for lost ground.

The Op runs after Day 6 aren't handling things well, especially precip. Look how wet all three ensemble camps are. If they are right it starts raining Friday and doesn't stop into the first week of November. Maybe even longer.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The Op runs after Day 6 aren't handling things well, especially precip. Look how wet all three ensemble camps are. If they are right it starts raining Friday and doesn't stop into the first week of November. Maybe even longer.

Its definitely going to be wetter... but I don't think its going to be just constant rain for 2+ weeks.  The ensembles tend to blend everything together while the operational runs give a better picture of the details and timing.     If we get into a flat ridging situation in the 10-15 day period then we might have some serious rain... which would make sense given that last 4 months of almost totally dry weather and also its the time of the year for AR events.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its definitely going to be wetter... but I don't think its going to be just constant rain for 2+ weeks.  The ensembles tend to blend everything together while the operational runs give a better picture of the details and timing.     If we get into a flat ridging situation in the 10-15 day period then we might have some serious rain... which would make sense given that last 4 months of almost totally dry weather and also its the time of the year for AR events.

Yeah, I'm sure there will be some lulls, but not for long. Maybe if we're lucky one completely dry day in between systems. What a contrast and the fact we're even saying this is a very nice change.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

Snowing in Indiana.  

 

Not that unusual. Or at least, it didn’t used to be. Lived in northern Illinois as a kid and remember it snowing in October a few times. Not as common as in Colorado, of course, but it still can happen.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Yeah, I'm sure there will be some lulls, but not for long. Maybe if we're lucky one completely dry day in between systems. What a contrast and the fact we're even saying this is a very nice change.

For the Seattle area... most of Saturday and Sunday looks fairly dry at this point.    

But we are definitely getting to the point in the year when it normally rains on most days with just short breaks in between.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

AQI 175 this morning.

Fun fact I just learned: When it’s this smoky, any tea tastes like a cup of lapsang souchong tea (and vice versa).

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the Seattle area... most of Saturday and Sunday looks fairly dry at this point.    

But we are definitely getting to the point in the year when it normally rains on most days with just short breaks in between.  

Dry weather sucks.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Dry weather sucks.

Balance is nice.    Too much wet or dry sucks.

Soon you will be loving that dry east wind.   

[Skagit Weather]

AQI is currently somewhere between 250 and 300 outside right now. I've seen it above 400 here so not quite the worst I've ever recorded, but this morning is going to be really unpleasant out there.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

AQI is currently somewhere between 250 and 300 outside right now. I've seen it above 400 here so not quite the worst I've ever recorded, but this morning is going to be really unpleasant out there.

Looks like your area starts to get cleared out somewhat this afternoon.   Have to wait until tomorrow down here.  

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like your area starts to get cleared out somewhat this afternoon.   Have to wait until tomorrow down here.  

Could you post the current map of what it looks like right now? 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Could you post the current map of what it looks like right now? 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Added a new shivering reaction gif in preparation for the coming winter. 

A pre-Christmas arctic blast with 9 inches of snow and single digit temps is all but certain now. You're welcome.

The forum needs to have a smoke and/or fire react in preparation for the coming summer.

[LowerGarfield]

Currently 42F and cool outside. Heater season will probably start this weekend.

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Added a new shivering reaction gif in preparation for the coming winter. 

A pre-Christmas arctic blast with 9 inches of snow and single digit temps is all but certain now. You're welcome.

I've already accepted that last Christmas was the pinnacle of Christmas weather, but that doesn't mean we can't do it again this year!

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 hours ago, JBolin said:

Yes, as it's illegal for ANY aircraft including military to go supersonic below FL-60T as the restricted/controlled airspace extends from the surface to FL-60T.

There are some "exceptions" that allow for TFR's that permit supersonic speed, i.e. national security issues, unresponsive aircraft and external domestic threats.

The last time the FAA allowed unrestricted access for supersonic flight below the aforementioned FL's was 9/11/2001

There has been at least one "authorized" supersonic flight (in the name of national security) since 9/11 and it was in 2010 right here in the PNW:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/fighter-jets-scramble-sonic-booms-rattle-puget-sound-area/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ddeVc7CnTg

 

I found an article back when it happened that gave a specific time line, and I want to say the got "on scene" in something like 12 or 16 minutes after wheels up.  This article says "before 2pm" which would be less than 22 minutes.  I have no idea how to calculate the speed curve for that, but the average is between 480 mph and 645mph.  I think the F-15C tops out at around 1,800-1,900mph.  I'm guessing they got pretty close to that before they put on the brakes.

I remember witness accounts saying that the take off profile was completely different.  Usually they take off and fly runway heading for a few miles before turning.  On this day, they were turning north before the gear was even stowed and flew over Vancouver at pretty low level in full burner.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I've already accepted that last Christmas was the pinnacle of Christmas weather, but that doesn't mean we can't do it again this year!

Last Christmas was a pretty special one all right.

[Kayla]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Last Christmas was a pretty special one all right.

Gorgeous!

[Phil]

This would be early/interesting.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see Tim is in the denial stage. 

[selkirks]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Last Christmas was a pretty special one all right.

The air is so clear!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phil said:

This would be early/interesting.

 

Nino incoming... something different! 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I see Tim is in the denial stage. 

Isn’t he always? Moss growing weather inbound!!!

[Phil]

EPS weeklies hint at a retrograding GOA ridge/-EPO in late November/early December.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I see Tim is in the denial stage. 

Silly comment.   

Looks like more normal weather ahead and its beyond overdue.   I am really tired of smoke.   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Isn’t he always? Moss growing weather inbound!!!

Warm season is over... we always have wet weather from November - March.    We got more than our money's worth this warm season.    Way too much of a good thing.     

Side note... we are going to be in Florida for almost half of November.    

[TT-SEA]

The smoke is ridiculously thick east of 405 this morning.   Looks like thick fog on the traffic cams.   This is very similar to the worst of the smoke in September 2020.    Absolutely disgusting.  

[Jbolin]

25 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

There has been at least one "authorized" supersonic flight (in the name of national security) since 9/11 and it was in 2010 right here in the PNW:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/fighter-jets-scramble-sonic-booms-rattle-puget-sound-area/

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ddeVc7CnTg

 

I found an article back when it happened that gave a specific time line, and I want to say the got "on scene" in something like 12 or 16 minutes after wheels up.  This article says "before 2pm" which would be less than 22 minutes.  I have no idea how to calculate the speed curve for that, but the average is between 480 mph and 645mph.  I think the F-15C tops out at around 1,800-1,900mph.  I'm guessing they got pretty close to that before they put on the brakes.

I remember witness accounts saying that the take off profile was completely different.  Usually they take off and fly runway heading for a few miles before turning.  On this day, they were turning north before the gear was even stowed and flew over Vancouver at pretty low level in full burner.

 

 

IIRC that "scramble" was due to a private pilot violating the TFR in place within Class-B airspace because of the President's visit. 

Needless to say, both of those pilots got an a** chewing after their return. 

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Last Christmas was a pretty special one all right.

It was perfection! 

[Chewbacca Defense]

13 minutes ago, JBolin said:

IIRC that "scramble" was due to a private pilot violating the TFR in place within Class-B airspace because of the President's visit. 

Needless to say, both of those pilots got an a** chewing after their return. 

Yeah it was a seaplane pilot who had been on a fishing trip off the grid in Eastern Washington and didn't bother/probably wasn't able to check the TFRs before flying back in. 

 

When you say "both pilots" who are you referring to?  I believe the F-15 pilots had authorization to step on the loud pedal.

[Jbolin]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah it was a seaplane pilot who had been on a fishing trip off the grid in Eastern Washington and didn't bother/probably wasn't able to check the TFRs before flying back in. 

 

When you say "both pilots" who are you referring to?  I believe the F-15 pilots had authorization to step on the loud pedal.

They "did" between Mt. St. Helen's and Mt. Rainier. NO authorization north or south of those two points.

It was later verified by the USAF, both pilots had been vernally reprimanded for violating FAA rules outside a posted TFR.

I.E. they continued to go supersonic beyond their approved area/s.

[Skagit Weather]

45 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Last Christmas was a pretty special one all right.

Christmas 2021 up near Bellingham:

 

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

They "did" between Mt. St. Helen's and Mt. Rainier. NO authorization north or south of those two points.

It was later verified by the USAF, both pilots had been vernally reprimanded for violating FAA rules outside a posted TFR.

Ah....I was not aware of that.  You ever find anything about how fast they got? 

 

Growing up in Georgia, the local news crew did a special feature when the ANG unit in Atlanta became the first ANG unit to get the F15.  The reporter went for a ride and they had a camera pointed out the back for a high performance take off.  You saw the ground moving past as they released the brakes and rolled down the runway, then everything tilted a bit as they rotated, then the next thing you know the camera is looking straight down at the runway numbers which get really small really quick.  I had it saved on VHS but the tape eventually died.