October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why are they pointless?  6 to 10 day outlooks are actually somewhat accurate these days.

Also updates every day!
@Sonny Summers

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Why are they pointless?  6 to 10 day outlooks are actually somewhat accurate these days.

They change all time, but they are a great tool.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Let's look at some AQI's around the region!!  This time I tried to get a coastal location and a location further inland from said coastal spot.

Vancouver BC - 160

Abbotsford - 326

Bellingham - 157

Maple Falls - 470

Mount Vernon - 158

Lake Stevens - 187

Everett - 72

Gold Bar -  220

Port Angeles - 48

Seattle North - 108

Seattle Downtown - 95

Seattle South - 153

Bellevue - 154

Snoqualmie - 301

Tacoma - 103 

Bonney Lake - 152

Aberdeen - 59

Chehalis - 91

Longview- 71

Battle Ground - 204

Vancouver - 166

Camas - 179

Wenatchee - 162

Yakima - 56

Kennewick - 62

Walla Walla - 52

Spokane Downtown - 102

Spokane North - 126

Spokane East - 106 

Portland North - 156

Portland Downtown - 130

Gresham - 153

Hillsboro - 105

Astoria - 58

Salem - 149

Eugene -  158

Oakridge - 440

Bend - 114

Medford - 48

 

This is among the worst I've ever seen it.

We need that wind shift!

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Sonny Summers said:

They change all time, but they are a great tool.

Except for the weekends when there is no human input for the outlooks.

[TacomaWx]

65/44 here today. 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Except for the weekends when there is no human input for the outlooks.

Unless there is a major storm that is forecasted within the outlook during the weekends.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I love thinking about this kind of stuff.

And these fringe hypotheticals aren't dumb. In fact, humans have used them to solve larger problems since the beginning of reason.

Solve one problem for fun, apply your discoveries to other problems. Simple and entertaining.

There used to be a model called the NGM (nested grid model), and it was fun to look at, because terrain was not factored into the model.  One thing I remember is it often showed straight northerly gradients in the Puget Sound area instead of easterly.  That alone would make it a much snowier and colder place.

[NWbyNW]

Here is the ground smoke levels in Washington right now.  By 5pm Wednesday is should be a little less dense, especially in Whatcom County.

CURRENT

WEDNESDAY BY 5PM

 

Oregon, the smoke will blanket the western half of the state, but it isn't nearly as thick as Washington.  The smoke will also get heavier along the Oregon coast.  I'm not sure why that is.

WEDNESDAY by 5pm

[Tyler Mode]

70 today, forecast was 70.  The forecast for tomorrow was around 80, but now is around 75.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Here is the ground smoke levels in Washington right now.  By 5pm Wednesday is should be a little less dense, especially in Whatcom County.

CURRENT

WEDNESDAY BY 5PM

 

Oregon, the smoke will blanket the western half of the state, but it isn't nearly as thick as Washington.  The smoke will also get heavier along the Oregon coast.  I'm not sure why that is.

WEDNESDAY by 5pm

Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire?

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Unless there is a major storm that is forecasted within the outlook during the weekends.

True, but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

True, but that seems to be the exception rather than the norm.

Yeah, it does not happen very often.

[snow_wizard]

The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning.  Could be a long wait for the first freeze.

[Dave]

While it has been abnormally warm lately, the high temps at the airport don't always paint an accurate depiction of the weather. I live in an area with an immense amount of mature trees. Not much sunlight gets through this time of year. My highs have been consistently 5 degrees lower than the untreed airport for the last two weeks. I haven't hit 80 even once. It is 68 here now and 73 at EUG. Looking forward to the rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

What about the GLAAM? Imagine how cool its ensembles would have been. Dang.

[NWbyNW]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire?

Possibly, but I think it's pretty accurate. This is only showing the ground level, not the column smoke.  Believe it or not, that fire isn't producing much compared to others in the region and it's smoke has mostly been going upward and northward.  It also seems to produce smoke columns roughly twice a day then go through a more dormant stage. That will change here in the coming days, but for right now, I'd say it looks pretty accurate.  Conditions closest to the fire are horrible though. 

[NWbyNW]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning.  Could be a long wait for the first freeze.

Saw that coming from a mile away.  The models from 10-12 days away never pan through.  I only start believing them about 3-4 days out. 

[NWbyNW]

6 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Looks like the current map is under doing smoke in Clark county from the Nakia Creek fire?

Just as a follow up, I wanted to show you the Nakia Creek Fire's smoke column!  It doesn't appear throughout much of the day, but when it does produce smoke, you can definitely see it.  The other fires for the most part are producing columns the entire day. Here are two pictures from within the past 24hrs at the peak moments of the Nakia Creek Fire going mad. 

[Iceresistance]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning.  Could be a long wait for the first freeze.

Just checked the Teleconnections, still shows a pattern change to favor Western CONUS cold blasts with the PNA rapidly turning negative.

[Phishy Wx]

thinking tomorrow will be the last 70+ day in my area until April/May ish (hopefully). Thursday will be close (69 is forecast) but I think this is it, FINALLY.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's worse outside now for sure. Coughing and almost choking outside immediately. Sort of like 2020.

[Meatyorologist]

Headaches are returning. Summer 2022 keeps rolling on.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The chances for any continental cold in the near future appear to be waning.  Could be a long wait for the first freeze.

No biggie. I want rain far more than cold at this stage.

[Meatyorologist]

Glad we will stop testing what is thermodynamically possible this time of year.

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

thinking tomorrow will be the last 70+ day in my area until April/May ish (hopefully). Thursday will be close (69 is forecast) but I think this is it, FINALLY.

Also me when the 100°F days are finally done.

[Kayla]

31 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Let's look at some AQI's around the region!!  This time I tried to get a coastal location and a location further inland from said coastal spot.

Vancouver BC - 160

Abbotsford - 326

Bellingham - 157

Maple Falls - 470

Mount Vernon - 158

Lake Stevens - 187

Everett - 72

Gold Bar -  220

Port Angeles - 48

Seattle North - 108

Seattle Downtown - 95

Seattle South - 153

Bellevue - 154

Snoqualmie - 301

Tacoma - 103 

Bonney Lake - 152

Aberdeen - 59

Chehalis - 91

Longview- 71

Battle Ground - 204

Vancouver - 166

Camas - 179

Wenatchee - 162

Yakima - 56

Kennewick - 62

Walla Walla - 52

Spokane Downtown - 102

Spokane North - 126

Spokane East - 106 

Portland North - 156

Portland Downtown - 130

Gresham - 153

Hillsboro - 105

Astoria - 58

Salem - 149

Eugene -  158

Oakridge - 440

Bend - 114

Medford - 48

 

This is among the worst I've ever seen it.

Bozeman - 13... I can't believe how bad it is out there still. Just horrible.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Sonny Summers said:

Ellensburg would be like Great Falls or Cut Bank. Spokane would be like Havre or Glasgow.

Those places would still be influenced by the Pacific to a greater extent than MT. But it would certainly create interesting weather.

[Meatyorologist]

Wow, I can not properly convey just how awful the smoke is in the NE corner of the city compared to downtown. It's not great in the city, but completely unbearable up here.

LET IT RAIN

[Deweydog]

Pretty decent improvement here in the last couple hours. 

[Sonny Summers]

I just got Rick Rolled, analog?

[Cloud]

SEA with 68 today. One last shot at near 70 tomorrow before we won’t see it again until spring. 

[MossMan]

Accumulation is increasing on the patio furniture! 

[MossMan]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow, I can not properly convey just how awful the smoke is in the NE corner of the city compared to downtown. It's not great in the city, but completely unbearable up here.

LET IT RAIN

It’s horrible! My lungs are angry. 

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Pretty decent improvement here in the last couple hours. 

Trend north!!! 

[NWbyNW]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Accumulation is increasing on the patio furniture! 

I brought in and cleaned all my outdoor furniture this morning.  After the last big ash fall a week or so ago, I cleaned it and put it back out.  This time I cleaned it and wrapped it up.  I think we're done for the year.  

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Saw that coming from a mile away.  The models from 10-12 days away never pan through.  I only start believing them about 3-4 days out. 

Freezes in October are pretty common in the outlying areas so I figured we would come up with something good enough for that to happen at least.  As I've said before 1988 was pretty abysmal in the early going so I'm still optimistic about the winter.  Just hoped to see an early appetizer.

[NWbyNW]

Had a low of 47F this morning.  Currently 61F.  We topped out at 63F today.

Forecast is showing me something I haven't seen since June. 

[MossMan]

I just saw Chris’s food post on FB…Looks sooo good! I think we should have an emergency meeting at his house right now to discuss the big change coming! 

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

No biggie. I want rain far more than cold at this stage.

A lot of people feel that way, but I want cold.  At least it will be pretty cool coming up.

[LowerGarfield]

41 AQI here. Don't hate too much.