October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GEM Day 1-10, 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

That's a lot closer to the Euros recent runs.  A lot closer

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Very. I'm putting together the GIF as we speak. Hey, Timmy!

00z ECMWF in 1 hour 7 minutes

Hello Rob

[Kolk1604]

Total Rain and Snow ending Dec 2nd from Today's weeklies (Control) 

Not much snow, but a lot of Rain! 

 

[TT-SEA]

The GFS is not really that wet over the next 10 days... but normal amounts of rain will seem very unusual at this point.

[Snownerd3000]

So excited for winter weather and nerding out over model runs and fantasy land snow maps.

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Total Rain and Snow ending Dec 2nd from Today's weeklies (Control) 

Not much snow, but a lot of Rain! 

 

Woah there! That's far far out.

[Phishy Wx]

you guys better not have prematurely spiked the the ball

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thursday might not crack 60F. Pretty strong PSCZ signature too as winds turn to a ripping NW'ly in advance of this upcoming trough, and the end to one torrid hellish nightmare of a summer.

Of course the average high on Thursday is 59.   

But yes... the crash is well underway then and soon we will be thinking 55 is a warm day.  

[Sonny Summers]

I hope the GFS is just having a GFS moment.

[snow_wizard]

I'm a bit disappointed with the less amplified look of the GFS tonight.  Still a big change, but it looks like we might have to wait a while for a real cold shot.  We'll see if the ECMWF looks colder.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

We better get 60 inches of snow this winter. 

We used to get 60 inch winters from time to time.

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

you guys better not have prematurely spiked the the ball

The pattern still changes big time.  Just not as pretty as previous runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Will King EURO hold steady with yet another fabulous blockbuster run featuring one cold trough after another? or might there be some changes after Day 6 I have no idea. Stay tuned!

Think Rain, Cooler Temperatures, and Mountain Snow! C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

I have something to confess. IF this falls apart it's my fault. Yep. In anticipation of the coming massive pattern change I washed my thick Winter T-Shirts and hoodies tonight, and I also made eye contact with my snow shovel as it hung in my garage. SOoo.... yeah. My bad. My bad

12z ECMWF in 12 hours

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Will King EURO hold steady with yet another fabulous blockbuster run featuring one cold trough after another? or might there be some changes after Day 6 I have no idea. Stay tuned!

Think Rain, Cooler Temperatures, and Mountain Snow! C'MON!!!!

Right now it looks like we may come of this with a lot of rain and not all that cold.  Kind of disappointing to me, but some people wanted more wet than cold.  As great as 1988-89 was it was a turd early on.  That is unquestionably an analog at this point.  On the other hand the GOA block hasn't even formed yet.  No telling exactly how it will develop.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

I have something to confess. IF this falls apart it's my fault. Yep. In anticipation of the coming massive pattern change I washed my thick Winter T-Shirts and hoodies tonight, and I also made eye contact with my snow shovel as it hung in my garage. SOoo.... yeah. My bad. My bad

12z ECMWF in 12 hours

The dry pattern is gone.   Temps are the only real question.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 Model Comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Model Comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Model Comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

 

[Kolk1604]

lol this is a cold run. 10 degrees in spots... 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS - Portland. Wet, wet, wet

[Skagit Weather]

For those of you wondering, here's the companion piece to my post from earlier today. Earlier I analyzed the most anomalous highs at SEA, and here are the most anomalous record lows. The lows also highlight some of the shortcomings of my method of analysis.

According to my standard deviation calculations, the 11 degree reading on March 4, 1955 is the most anomalous reading ever at SEA with a reading 3.4 standard deviations below the average March daily record low. I was surprised it was not November 15, 1955 when SEA dropped to 6F, but it turns out that November is a really unsettled month (big surprise).

March has a standard deviation of 4 degrees while November has a ridiculous standard deviation of 6.5 degrees. That means that even though 11/14/55 had a low of 9F which was 32 degrees below normal, it does not meet the 2 standard deviation cutoff. Meanwhile August has remarkably consistent record low temperatures. They are all between 9 and 14 degrees below the average low which means the standard deviation is 1.2 degrees! That means that the three days with record low temperatures 14 degrees below average are almost exactly 2 standard deviations away from the average record low for the month (I didn't highlight these points on the graph because it would have been too cluttered).

The second most anomalous reading is the 38F on June 12, 1952 which is 3.1 standard deviations below the average. It's only 15 degrees below average (something that every single date in January manages to surpass), but because the record lows are so consistent in June, the standard deviation is only 1.5 degrees and it is remarkably anomalous.

Those of you who are familiar with PNW weather history will not be surprised to see the decade of the 50s dominating this graph. As the 2010s and 2020s have been for anomalously warm highs, the 50s were for anomalously cold lows. If people are interested I can perform this analysis for min maxes (cold high temperatures) and max mins (warm low temperatures), but not until later this week.

[Gradient Keeper]

Back to the EURO. Day 8 Wind Storm pattern

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Back to the EURO. Day 8 Wind Storm pattern

A good windstorm would be nice!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, here's the companion piece to my post from earlier today. Earlier I analyzed the most anomalous highs at SEA, and here are the most anomalous record lows. The lows also highlight some of the shortcomings of my method of analysis.

According to my standard deviation calculations, the 11 degree reading on March 4, 1955 is the most anomalous reading ever at SEA with a reading 3.4 standard deviations below the average March daily record low. I was surprised it was not November 15, 1955 when SEA dropped to 6F, but it turns out that November is a really unsettled month (big surprise).

March has a standard deviation of 4 degrees while November has a ridiculous standard deviation of 6.5 degrees. That means that even though 11/14/55 had a low of 9F which was 32 degrees below normal, it does not meet the 2 standard deviation cutoff. Meanwhile August has remarkably consistent record low temperatures. They are all between 9 and 14 degrees below the average low which means the standard deviation is 1.2 degrees! That means that the three days with record low temperatures 14 degrees below average are almost exactly 2 standard deviations away from the average record low for the month (I didn't highlight these points on the graph because it would have been too cluttered).

The second most anomalous reading is the 38F on June 12, 1952 which is 3.1 standard deviations below the average. It's only 15 degrees below average (something that every single date in January manages to surpass), but because the record lows are so consistent in June, the standard deviation is only 1.5 degrees and it is remarkably anomalous.

Those of you who are familiar with PNW weather history will not be surprised to see the decade of the 50s dominating this graph. As the 2010s and 2020s have been for anomalously warm highs, the 50s were for anomalously cold lows. If people are interested I can perform this analysis for min maxes (cold high temperatures) and max mins (warm low temperatures), but not until later this week.

This is seriously impressive analysis you did here.

[jcmcgaffey]

7 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, here's the companion piece to my post from earlier today. Earlier I analyzed the most anomalous highs at SEA, and here are the most anomalous record lows. The lows also highlight some of the shortcomings of my method of analysis.

According to my standard deviation calculations, the 11 degree reading on March 4, 1955 is the most anomalous reading ever at SEA with a reading 3.4 standard deviations below the average March daily record low. I was surprised it was not November 15, 1955 when SEA dropped to 6F, but it turns out that November is a really unsettled month (big surprise).

March has a standard deviation of 4 degrees while November has a ridiculous standard deviation of 6.5 degrees. That means that even though 11/14/55 had a low of 9F which was 32 degrees below normal, it does not meet the 2 standard deviation cutoff. Meanwhile August has remarkably consistent record low temperatures. They are all between 9 and 14 degrees below the average low which means the standard deviation is 1.2 degrees! That means that the three days with record low temperatures 14 degrees below average are almost exactly 2 standard deviations away from the average record low for the month (I didn't highlight these points on the graph because it would have been too cluttered).

The second most anomalous reading is the 38F on June 12, 1952 which is 3.1 standard deviations below the average. It's only 15 degrees below average (something that every single date in January manages to surpass), but because the record lows are so consistent in June, the standard deviation is only 1.5 degrees and it is remarkably anomalous.

Those of you who are familiar with PNW weather history will not be surprised to see the decade of the 50s dominating this graph. As the 2010s and 2020s have been for anomalously warm highs, the 50s were for anomalously cold lows. If people are interested I can perform this analysis for min maxes (cold high temperatures) and max mins (warm low temperatures), but not until later this week.

This is great. Thanks for putting this together. Where did the June 2022 heat wave fall?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, jcmcgaffey said:

Where did the June 2022 heat wave fall?

2022 or 2021?

In 2021 the two hottest days (June 27th at 104º and June 28th at 108º) were 2+ standard deviations above the average record high while the 102º day (June 26th) was 1.65 std above.

June 2022 was not particularly noteworthy statistically. The warmest day (91F on June 27th) wouldn't have set a record even before 2021.

[Skagit Weather]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Definitely trending drier up here in the rainshadow, although the North Cascades regain some of the precip they lost on the 12z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pepto map for good measure.

[NWbyNW]

WASHINGTON SMOKE FORECAST KIND OF... (lots of babbling to)

The next few days will be a tale of two... two... outcomes?  Uhh... We will seeing clearing out and increasing smoke depending on where you live.  Models show coastal areas of Puget Sound seeing some minor relief and inland areas... not as much.  Smoke will venture back but also clear back a bit depending on the time of day.  The reason is the ridge that will soon be going over us.  We also have the unfortunate case of a few new fires on the western side of the mountains including the new Jim Creek Fire and Svenmile Creek Fire NE of Granite Falls.  This is going to blanket smoke over Arlington, Marysville, Stanwood, as well as Skagit and Whatcom Counties depending on the wind direction.  Still waiting for some models to implement these new fires.  There is also a new fire south of Yelm that will make conditions there and around Joint Base Lewis-McChord and possibly Tacoma a bit hazy. 

We may wake up to some very smokey air tomorrow, but it should vary throughout the day from smokey to less smoke.

OREGON SMOKE FORECAST

Portland's metro is seeing degrading conditions, especially Vancouver and her suburbs to the NE... Orchards, Brush Prairie, Battle Ground, etc.  Smoke from the Nakia Creek Fire and the Fishhook Loop Fire are spreading the smoke throughout the area as it moves Northward.  Longview-Keslo is also no treat. Unlike Washington, winds for much of Oregon will shift southward leading to much of the smoke from the Nakia Creek Fire to eventually turn south and possibly worsen Portland's air quality more. The smoke will work it's way south through the Willamette Valley and eventually hit all the populated cities such as Salem and Eugene.  But stay hopeful, relief is coming soon.  Couple more days.

Both state's are waiting on the rain coming this weekend.  Then we can put all this behind us till next year.... seems smoke season gets longer and longer.

[NWbyNW]

42 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

For those of you wondering, here's the companion piece to my post from earlier today...

I just want to say both of these articles you wrote and posted here with all the research and information/ They are exactly what I LOVE!  I love this kind of stuff.  So thank you for taking the time to make these and going through all that data!  These are awesome.  I'm saving them in my never shrinking-always expanding data folders.  

I wish they could be posted in their own section so they won't get lost with time.