October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Requiem]

Interesting little windstorm for the Willamette Valley a week from today-- small mini-low around the parent storm rapidly develops and strikes the coast north of Tillamook. 

[North_County]

Received the annual floodplain notice today. Always an exciting read that marks the start of rainy season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Digs beautifully.

[TT-SEA]

06Z GFS is quite dry over the next 2 weeks... while the 00Z EPS and the control run were both very wet.   My bet is on the Europeans.  The GFS has been playing catch up lately.  

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

06Z GFS is quite dry over the next 2 weeks... while the 00Z EPS and the control run were both very wet.   My bet is on the Europeans.  The GFS has been playing catch up lately.  

GEFS is also very wet.

12z GFS in 2 hours 16 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

10/18/22 6:20 AM Water Vapor Imagery, 6z Pacific Surface Analysis

Another sign that the North Pacific/Gulf of Alaska fall storm season is well underway is the 966mb(28.53 in) Powerhouse Hurricane Force low currently spinning south of Anchorage/Valdez, Alaska. It sure looks impressive on satellite imagery! This has prompted a slew of High Wind Watches and Warnings issued for southeast Alaska. This storm won't have much of an impact on the Pacific Northwest but will push a weakening dry front through the area on Thursday. Hopefully we'll have plenty more impressive storm systems to track over the next several months. 'Tis the Season! C'MON!!!!

[Meatyorologist]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course the average high on Thursday is 59.   

But yes... the crash is well underway then and soon we will be thinking 55 is a warm day.  

Crazy how that is our actual normal right now; 60F and cloudy. It feels like a fight to avoid 70F with all this ridging...which of course it is.

Absolutely pumped for the return of the Fall rains.

[Blizzard777]

8 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Woah there! That's far far out.

First thing that came to mind!

lol, will also wake a few people up

foggy and 45*

[Phishy Wx]

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

That was me looking at the 06z GFS

[Phishy Wx]

down to 34

[T-Town]

48 this morning with patchy fog. Feels like fall. 

[Cloud]

The GFS is an incredible model… it truly is. Like wtf?

either way, we’re now 90 hours away and the 06z Euro ends very wet still. 

[LowerGarfield]

42F currently. Might start closing the non bedroom windows at night now.

[Randyc321]

 45 deg and an orange glow looking east over Seattle as the sun rises above the tree tops.

Can't wait for rain.

 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Cloud said:

The GFS is an incredible model… it truly is. Like wtf?

either way, we’re now 90 hours away and the 06z Euro ends very wet still. 

It has it's strengths and can lead the way at times.    But this pattern change is not one of those times.   Its more lost than usual right now.  

[Kayla]

Models seem to be converging on a pretty significant snowstorm for my area this weekend. 12-18" at face value but still a long ways out.

Let it snow!

[The Blob]

Foggy out, I'm happy with this cooler weather.

[Cloud]

The Friday trough is digging a lot better on this run. Last 4 runs. 

[Cloud]

[jcmcgaffey]

9 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

2022 or 2021?

In 2021 the two hottest days (June 27th at 104º and June 28th at 108º) were 2+ standard deviations above the average record high while the 102º day (June 26th) was 1.65 std above.

June 2022 was not particularly noteworthy statistically. The warmest day (91F on June 27th) wouldn't have set a record even before 2021.

Interesting. Ya I meant 2021. Thanks.  

[Sonny Summers]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Crazy how that is our actual normal right now; 60F and cloudy. It feels like a fight to avoid 70F with all this ridging...which of course it is.

Absolutely pumped for the return of the Fall rains.

I'm burned out on the haze and smoke(no pun intended). We need to get these wildfires put out. A wetter period with cooler weather and higher humidity should do the trick.

[Sonny Summers]

7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It's looking promising.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

I'm burned out on the haze and smoke(no pun intended). We need to get these wildfires put out. A wetter period with cooler weather and higher humidity should do the trick.

yea this stuff is a drag

[Sonny Summers]

We could use a haze or smoke emoji and a fog emoji. I think other people have made the same suggestion in the past.

[Cloud]

GFS  is still lost at 5.5 and beyond it seems. Mind you, this is medium range. 

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

GFS  is still lost at 5.5 and beyond it seems. Mind you, this is medium range. 

The trough appears to be healthier on the 12z or am I seeing things?

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Sonny Summers said:

The trough appears to be healthier on the 12z or am I seeing things?

It is stronger but at the same time, there is a lack of consistency from run to run even at 5 days out. 

[Kayla]

We've had amazing fall colors this year with all this warm weather. Taking it all in now before the leaves all die and fall off this weekend!

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

It is stronger but at the same time, there is a lack of consistency from run to run even at 5 days out. 

I was thinking the same thing. Thank you for the reply.

[Winterdog]

42 after a low of 39 here.  The smoke is as bad as ever now that I have two fires within a few miles of my place. It will be such a relief when the rains turn the smoke into steam.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

LOL!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

I would rather see this than a coast to coast torch. 

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

42 after a low of 39 here.  The smoke is as bad as ever now that I have two fires within a few miles of my place. It will be such a relief when the rains turn the smoke into steam.

Yeah Friday cannot come soon enough. 

[Deweydog]

100 looking less likely today at PDX.

[Doinko]

Additionally, it is probably no surprise to locals that the
first 17 days of this October have been the warmest on record at
every single one of our inland climate sites. Portland Airport takes
the cake here, with an average Oct 1-17 temperature of 66.7 deg F
which is a stunning 4.3 deg F warmer than the prior warmest Oct 1-17,
and just under 9 degrees above average. In other words, Portland
Airport would need to be about 5 degrees cooler than normal for the
remainder of the month for this October NOT to become the warmest on
record when all is said and done. It is safe to say the first half of
this month has been historic in terms of warmth, dryness, and fire
danger. It is rare for several fires to be burning in our forecast
area this late in the season.

 

- NWS Portland AFD.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Additionally, it is probably no surprise to locals that the
first 17 days of this October have been the warmest on record at
every single one of our inland climate sites. Portland Airport takes
the cake here, with an average Oct 1-17 temperature of 66.7 deg F
which is a stunning 4.3 deg F warmer than the prior warmest Oct 1-17,
and just under 9 degrees above average. In other words, Portland
Airport would need to be about 5 degrees cooler than normal for the
remainder of the month for this October NOT to become the warmest on
record when all is said and done. It is safe to say the first half of
this month has been historic in terms of warmth, dryness, and fire
danger. It is rare for several fires to be burning in our forecast
area this late in the season.

 

- NWS Portland AFD.

Nucking Futs

[Sonny Summers]

4 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Additionally, it is probably no surprise to locals that the
first 17 days of this October have been the warmest on record at
every single one of our inland climate sites. Portland Airport takes
the cake here, with an average Oct 1-17 temperature of 66.7 deg F
which is a stunning 4.3 deg F warmer than the prior warmest Oct 1-17,
and just under 9 degrees above average. In other words, Portland
Airport would need to be about 5 degrees cooler than normal for the
remainder of the month for this October NOT to become the warmest on
record when all is said and done. It is safe to say the first half of
this month has been historic in terms of warmth, dryness, and fire
danger. It is rare for several fires to be burning in our forecast
area this late in the season.

 

- NWS Portland AFD.

Calling for the warmest October is almost a John Maddenism at this point. "In order to win football games, you've got to outscore your opponent."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't spend to much time on the 12z GFS.