October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Let's hope the atmosphere remembers that track a few more times this winter (sorry Tiger).

I know the track won't end up exactly like this run is showing of course, but I was wondering, is a NW to SE track better for the Portland area or a more SW to NE track of the low, or just a W to E track?

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM 10 Day GIF

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

96 hours is actually a reasonably significant amount of time from a 500mb standpoint, at least during a generally progressive time of the year like late October.

In 2003 we went from 72 on October 28 to snow on November 1.

The evolution in this case is pretty interesting though... the eastern trough lifts into Canada and then carves out a deep trough over the west.  Its actually rapid retrogression rather than progression.

[Randyc321]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt they are often wrong from that range.  I was just saying don't assume they will always be wrong.  With weather and models anytime you get too comfortable with an idea you will surely get burned.

Please remember this later in the season when Clown Range maps are fantastic but unrealistic.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

I know the track won't end up exactly like this run is showing of course, but I was wondering, is a NW to SE track better for the Portland area or a more SW to NE track of the low, or just a W to E track?

Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close.  I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004).

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The evolution in this case is pretty interesting though... the eastern trough lifts into Canada and then carves out a deep trough over the west.  Its actually rapid retrogression rather than progression.

I would say rapid retrogression is progressive, though. May be splitting hairs but I tend to think of there being multiple ways to mark a "progressive" pattern, not just with a screaming jet stream as is sometimes thought.

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close.  I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004).

Ahhh 2004, that was fun. A decent week of snow leading up to that over running event. We had freezing rain at the end, so the snow stuck around for a little bit. Ended up with an additional 3 days of Winter Vacation. Too bad that was the end of Winter though. (at least for the lowlands) 

[TacomaWx]

22 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm planning to be at Glacier NP next weekend, so I'm definitely hoping for some leftover snow but hikeable conditions.

Almost went there but decided to wait until the west entrance is open. Would’ve taken a lot of time going to the east entrance from kalispel. 

[Doinko]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty hard to get deep lows that truly move due W to E, although 1/10/2017 was reasonably close.  I would say it depends on the system, but SW to NE is usually a safer bet for heavier totals as it obviously advects in the available cold air faster. Downside is that those can also mix things out pretty cleanly as the low departs (1/1/2004).

Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month.

[Randyc321]

39 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This evolution from a very deep trough to a strong ridge in the east and the exact opposite in the west in just 4 days is quite impressive.    I don't remember too many examples of a complete flip happening this fast and effectively.

Unfortunately lots of weird weather stuff has happened in the last couple of years that most of us don't remember happening before.

[Kayla]

25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm planning to be at Glacier NP next weekend, so I'm definitely hoping for some leftover snow but hikeable conditions.

Nice, should be fun as long as it’s not too snowy. Right now this weekend storm seems to be favoring the southern portions of the state but NW MT could be hit harder next week with more northwest flow.

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Almost went there but decided to wait until the west entrance is open. Would’ve taken a lot of time going to the east entrance from kalispel. 

Yeah and I'm staying in Whitefish so it'll be a long drive in but hopefully worth it. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month.

That one was a good example of NNW to SSE movement. Advected in just enough cold air as it tracked inland to help the east metro but left the rest of the area on the fringes.

[Randyc321]

30 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Would be nice get a good old southerly windstorm, can't remember the last significant one down here (2019 or 2017 maybe)

Not a fan of power outages but the pineapple express that would come with it sounds great.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Was the low on 2/9/2019 an example of the cold air advecting too slow for the precip type to stay as snow for the entire metro area? That was slightly annoying but we kind of made up for it late in the month.

It was too far north. And 2-25-19 was too far south. Y'all got really unlucky that winter.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looks like Portland won't be reaching 80 anymore tomorrow. 

[Randyc321]

22 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

 

The Canadian is destroying the GFS right now.

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

It was too far north. And 2-25-19 was too far south. Y'all got really unlucky that winter.

It did give PDX 5" of snow though, it just decided to screw anyone west of that with nothing at all. 2/25/19 did give us 3" of snow here which was nice, so it could've been worse.

[TacomaWx]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah and I'm staying in Whitefish so it'll be a long drive in but hopefully worth it. 

Yeah I stayed there it was a pretty nice town. First time I’ve been there. 

[Cloud]

Nice run!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I stayed there it was a pretty nice town. First time I’ve been there. 

Really nice scenery there

[Kolk1604]

Here's the 00z ICON. 7 PM Thursday to Wednesday 5 AM 

 

[Phil]

Good thread.

 

[Front Ranger]

Don't see this every October 18.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty decent GFS run.  Looks like one night in there early next week that could have frost besides all of the rain and mountain snow.

[Kolk1604]

At least the GFS is finally wet! lol 

[Gradient Keeper]

This must be why Pivotal is SO SLOW

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now to Day 1

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Doiinko said:

Low passing just to the south of Portland!

Really nice baroclinicity being shown as well.  Great snow setup if it were a bit later.

[NWbyNW]

SMOKE FORECAST

There is hope for some smoke clearing Wednesday evening.  Read below.

Western Oregon is seeing conditions continue to degrade and smoke is being pulled south.  Earlier in the day, conditions were bad only around Vancouver and eastern Portland burbs, but it has sunk south as predicted.

Northwest Washington and the Lower Mainland have seen conditions gotten worse overall since last posted.  Most of Whatcom County is in Hazardous air conditions. We are talking about AQI's in the 300s and 400s. For the first time in this smoke event, the San Juan Islands have been effected as well. Winds are blowing N in most cases in this part of the region and smoke from from all the fires is going in their direction and getting stopped by a crosswind... it's stagnating the smokey air there and just sitting there.  But keep reading the forecast below, relief is coming soon. 

The Puget Sound has stagnated but there is a slight southern flow.  Obviously not enough to clean things out right now.  

So use this model imagery below as a before....

And an after!!  2 of the 3 models are now predicting some sort of clearing out tomorrow (Wednesday) evening.  This is showing 11pm.  Of course I will keep checking the latest runs, but if this holds up, it will definitely help clean out areas for sure.  Especially the North Sound and Seattle, and coastal areas in the South Sound.  Note that the majority of the day, there will still be an offshore flow pulling in more smoke, and this is fire-warning conditions for the Cascade's and the foothills. 

Oregon's western half will see conditions continue to go downward, but it won't be anything like Washington has been seeing for almost a month.  The worst conditions will be in NW Oregon.  Winds have shifts fully southward in W Oregon and a lot of the smoke from Washington will blow into your direction.  Expect mostly moderate to unhealthy conditions and you can expect this going into Thursday as well as it doesn't see winds will shift.  

The one model that isn't showing clearing on Wednesday is instead holding off clearing till Thursday.  First image shows it's prediction for Wednesday evening and the second image shows it's Thursday clearing.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least the GFS is finally wet! lol 

There has been a lot of talk on here that either an extremely wet or very cold outcome was pretty likely after such a ridiculous period of warm/dry weather.

[Kolk1604]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

There has been a lot of talk on here that either an extremely wet or very cold outcome was pretty likely after such a ridiculous period of warm/dry weather.

I think it'll be both 

I remember 2006 it was a very wet start to the month of November with flooding and ending with an Arctic outbreak and snow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

SMOKE FORECAST

There is hope for some smoke clearing Wednesday evening.  Read below.

Western Oregon is seeing conditions continue to degrade and smoke is being pulled south.  Earlier in the day, conditions were bad only around Vancouver and eastern Portland burbs, but it has sunk south as predicted.

Northwest Washington and the Lower Mainland have seen conditions gotten worse overall since last posted.  Most of Whatcom County is in Hazardous air conditions. We are talking about AQI's in the 300s and 400s. For the first time in this smoke event, the San Juan Islands have been effected as well. Winds are blowing N in most cases in this part of the region and smoke from from all the fires is going in their direction and getting stopped by a crosswind... it's stagnating the smokey air there and just sitting there.  But keep reading the forecast below, relief is coming soon. 

The Puget Sound has stagnated but there is a slight southern flow.  Obviously not enough to clean things out right now.  

So use this model imagery below as a before....

And an after!!  2 of the 3 models are now predicting some sort of clearing out tomorrow (Wednesday) evening.  This is showing 11pm.  Of course I will keep checking the latest runs, but if this holds up, it will definitely help clean out areas for sure.  Especially the North Sound and Seattle, and coastal areas in the South Sound.  Note that the majority of the day, there will still be an offshore flow pulling in more smoke, and this is fire-warning conditions for the Cascade's and the foothills. 

Oregon's western half will see conditions continue to go downward, but it won't be anything like Washington has been seeing for almost a month.  The worst conditions will be in NW Oregon.  Winds have shifts fully southward in W Oregon and a lot of the smoke from Washington will blow into your direction.  Expect mostly moderate to unhealthy conditions and you can expect this going into Thursday as well as it doesn't see winds will shift.  

 

The worst first half of October ever. Period. Thanks for the frequent updates and all of the time it takes to do so.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Meatyorologist]

Tomorrow will be the last day of Summer 2022 in Seattle. A buffed marine layer on Thursday will keep things cool and drizzly, staying below 60F. Friday brings about much colder air and our pattern change.

That means this is it. One more day of anomalous heat and smoke. Just get through it.

[NWbyNW]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

The worst first half of October ever. Period. Thanks for the frequent updates and all of the time it takes to do so.

I cannot think of a worse October honestly.  And what stinks is that if all this smoke wasn't here, it would have been a beautiful fall with many crisp clear days.  The smoke ruined it for us all to enjoy the beauty of this region. 

[Meatyorologist]