October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Doinko]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4

That block is trending stronger I think

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

That block is trending stronger I think

Yep!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z WRF-GFS

NEXT Tuesday

Tonight's run shows a very active system for next Tuesday as a wave of low pressure quickly develops into a compact, closed 990mb low just off the central Oregon coast. The low continues to deepen making landfall just north of Lincoln City. Importantly from 2-5 PM the low is still deepening down to 986mb as it moves northeast traversing the northern Oregon Coast Range. The pressure gradient is very tight and scoots right over the Coast Range, northern Willamette Valley, and PDX metro. The pressure gradient couplet is very steep over a short distance with isobars aligned perfectly perpendicular from west to east across the area. This really aids in producing strong winds.

 

When we watch for possible windstorms we utilize the PDX(Portland) to EUG(Eugene) pressure gradient. Typically anything over -6mb leads to gusty winds and anything exceeding that can lead to damaging winds. In this case the PDX-EUG gradient far exceeds this at -11 to -13mb. In fact, the gradient is steepest between Portland and Salem at -7 to -8mb. This would likely lead to a quick hitting 2-3 hour damaging wind storm with gusts 60mph+ for PDX metro. This is a long ways away, so let's keep an eye on future model runs to see if they are similarly showing the wind storm potential.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Between the leaves and brittleness, it probably won’t be pretty. Survival of the fittest!

I think we can all agree, as long as Tim's Japanese maples survive, all is well.

[ShawniganLake]

Luckily palm trees hold up very well in strong winds 

[MossMan]

I like windstorms.

Currently 46 degrees! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MossMan said:

I like windstorms.

Currently 46 degrees! 

Fireplace roaring?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

[kokaneekidz]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That situation on Tuesday is pretty fascinating.  That would probably be a big snowfall even 4 to 6 weeks from now.

Excellent low trajectory 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

You might be right. If we average 56/44 over the next 11 days, we will beat the record by .1 degrees. I think we’re going to break the record, but it’s certainly not a given like you said.

44 is probably optimistically chilly 

[snow_wizard]

I ended up with .13" with that brief burst of rain tonight.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Fireplace roaring?

It will be this weekend! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

44 is probably optimistically chilly 

We're talking about NW flow, but it is PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I ended up with .13" with that brief burst of rain tonight.

Better than I expected. What's rain like? Is it still wet? I wouldn't know down here in PDX.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It will be this weekend! 

Can't wait to fire up my stove.  I have some bone dry wood to burn this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Better than I expected. What's rain like? Is it still wet? I wouldn't know down here in PDX.

It made my fluffy orange cat very soggy and cold to the touch.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[snow_wizard]

Nice signal for so far out.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS. Wet!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're talking about NW flow, but it is PDX.

For a few days sure.  Euro shows plenty of southerly flow after the middle of next week.  With active frontal boundaries directed at BC and Washington, Oregon could  end up mostly on that warmer and drier side of things. 

[TacomaWx]

We did pick up 0.01” here yesterday pleased to report the smoke is gone. 

[Dave]

We got a few drops earlier, but it is quite clear out now. Very little smoke. Will we get some thunder in the next couple of days? That would be cool.

[Deweydog]

57 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I think we can all agree, as long as Tim's Japanese maples survive, all is well.

Jesse’s been up there every other day watering and saying sweet nurturing things to them ever since the spigot turned off in mid June. Exceptional considering gas prices.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Night shift?

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Night shift?

Maybe. I have to get up early to beat the rain cleaning out the gutters and patio cover again thanks to the east wind event last weekend. Sure glad I did it last Thursday for no reason.

6z GFS in 2 hours

[Gradient Keeper]

Significant improvement now across PDX metro! Finally!

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles was a soaker. I doubt this verifies, but who knows.

[NWbyNW]

The bad air gets less and less!  Now it is centralized within the central Puget Sound only.  The last place clean onshore air has reached!

Portland is mostly all in the green again, but further down the Willamette Valley, conditions vary from unhealthy, unhealthy for sensitive groups, and moderate.  

We made it everyone.  We're almost there.

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

The bad air gets less and less!  Now it is centralized within the central Puget Sound only.  The last place clean onshore air has reached!

Portland is mostly all in the green again, but further down the Willamette Valley, conditions vary from unhealthy, unhealthy for sensitive groups, and moderate.  

We made it everyone.  We're almost there.

Thanks!

[NWbyNW]

Temperatures are gonna start getting cool!  So excited.  Also RAIN!  

[NWbyNW]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Thanks!

You are welcome.

Oh!  It's you (DJ)!  You changed your name since this afternoon! 

[Dave]

19 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

You are welcome.

Oh!  It's you (DJ)!  You changed your name since this afternoon! 

I recognized the "C'mon!" instantly. It's been trademarked.

[Cloud]

Marked improvement with the air quality here. Sub 100 and moderate. Can’t wait for it to be completely gone…. Good riddance. 

[Gradient Keeper]

35 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

You are welcome.

Oh!  It's you (DJ)!  You changed your name since this afternoon! 

Yup! I changed it a few hours ago!

[Gradient Keeper]

15 minutes ago, Dave said:

I recognized the "C'mon!" instantly. It's been trademarked.

Yeah LOL. I'm not sure which year I started that.