October 2022 PNW weather Discussion. + Ultimate Leg Reveal Extravaganza

[Gradient Keeper]

8:50 PM Radar Update

Juicy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Sonny Summers]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

8:50 PM Radar Update

Juicy.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

[Kayla]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Do you live much higher than Bozeman or just get more orographic enhancement there? 

A little higher but mainly more orographic enhancement with north/northwesterly flow being closer to the base of the Gallatin range than town.

[Kayla]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Block is trending stronger. Lets keep this theme up all winter!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 (Past 4 runs)

[Doinko]

7 minutes ago, Kayla said:

A little higher but mainly more orographic enhancement with north/northwesterly flow being right at the base of the Gallatin range.

I think I remember seeing on your signature that your highest daily snowfall from last season was 16", have you surpassed that yet or did some fall before midnight?

[Gradient Keeper]

It would be great if that ridge holds out there and doesn't migrate eastward back over us like previous runs. C'MON!!!!

[mtep]

Beautiful fall scenery on highway 20 today. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 (Past 4 runs)

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, mtep said:

Beautiful fall scenery on highway 20 today. 

Wow. Awesome scenery. I'd definitely be busy fishing. Where is this?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 (Past 4 runs)

[mtep]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Wow. Awesome scenery. I'd definitely be busy fishing. Where is this?

Rainy Lake trail and then Pearrygin Lake right outside of Winthrop. I was lit the f*** up when we realized that the trail was below the snow line today. I wish I could've gotten more pics of the yellow leaves over the pass but I was driving! At least I caught that chipmunk. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Kayla]

16 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I think I remember seeing on your signature that your highest daily snowfall from last season was 16", have you surpassed that yet or did some fall before midnight?

By "daily" I usually record it as my highest 24hr total and yeah we have exceeded that with 18" in a 24hr period today. It's funny because that 16" high was from last October as well. Today is also my highest 24hr snowfall for any month since I moved here almost 6 years ago.

It's like @Meatyorologist said, if there is one sure thing in life it's big shoulder season snows these days for whatever reason!

[Sonny Summers]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 9'er

Next

[Sonny Summers]

Uncle Al is back

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[selkirks]

GFS: wonky or wise?

[Kolk1604]

lol this run is nuts

This is from 10/28 to 11/3 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals. Massive rains for most of Washington. Big snows for the North Washington Cascades.

[Sonny Summers]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Yuck

[Cascadia_Wx]

Feeling pretty good about an average last ten days of October temp wise. Might actually end up a little above.

[Sonny Summers]

This cat just saw the 00z GFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, Sonny Summers said:

Yuck

The precip is nice, but the temps are too warm for me. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Time for the nightly run of the KING! or reign of the KING? Alright. I have a feeling after Day 7 the EURO might try to pump up a ridge over us, or a chilly retrogression pattern. Hmmm....

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, mtep said:

Beautiful fall scenery on highway 20 today. 

Hey! That's where I was today too! Although I took the high route.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Hey! That's where I was today too! Although I took the high route.

Wow! Absolutely stunning scenery and pics!

[Sonny Summers]

1 hour ago, Kolk1604 said:

The precip is nice, but the temps are too warm for me. 

I was hoping for a continuation of the NW flow pattern. They can't all be winners.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[snow_wizard]

One bad thing about the next week is Central WA will continue to be very shadowed from the precip.  They still have a high fire danger there.

[snow_wizard]

BTW....the GEFS is better than the GFS tonight.  The best models show low PNA continuing for a good while yet.

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

One bad thing about the next week is Central WA will continue to be very shadowed from the precip.  They still have a high fire danger there.

Even the fires on the west side are still burning (although I'm sure the rain this week will put them out). There was still a good amount of smoke today near Diablo and Ross Lake in the North Cascades from the McAllister Creek Fire.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 (Past 4 runs)

Model comparison ECMWF, GEM, GFS