October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Tons of potential for meaningful wind coming up. The coast at the very least should get a hammered at least once.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Tons of potential for meaningful wind coming up. The coast at the very least should get a hammered at least once.

 

 

Just came across this article on the KOMO news site from Scott Sistek

 

http://komonews.com/news/local/offshore-boaters-warned-of-life-threatening-seas-possible-later-this-week-in-twin-storms

 

 

I hope it stays pretty chill Thursday day and Sunday, my daughter and grandson are flying up from Portland, and she gets motion sickness looking at a picture of a wave (well...maybe not that bad, but yeah she doesn't do well with turbulence and rough waters)

[Phil]

If the October AO averages solidly negative (below -0.4 on the NOAA/CPC calculation), then it'd statistically guarantee a negative AO winter, given a -ENSO/+QBO background.

 

Since 1950, there are no coherent -ENSO/+QBO Octobers featuring solidly negative AOs that failed to reproduce the negative AOs during N/D/J/F/M.

[TT-SEA]

Looking like fall...

 

[Phil]

Haha, wow. D15 (360hr) GEFS looks like something out of the Maunder Minimum.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64D72F81-0FB9-462F-8F77-ED3E8BADD400_zpsyssuxvuf.gif

[Bryant]

D15 GEFS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/64D72F81-0FB9-462F-8F77-ED3E8BADD400_zpsyssuxvuf.gif

Lock it in!

[Phil]

GEFS also suggests the vortex takes another hit in the long range. These are crucial developmental stages, so perhaps the beast will be on seditives this winter. Never a given, though.

 

Keep in mind the zonal winds are climatologically strengthening at this time of year, so the long range depiction by the GEFS is notable.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Phil]

Jesse no longer has an account here?

[TT-SEA]

Jesse no longer has an account here?

 

Wow.   I was wondering where he went.

[Bryant]

Jesse no longer has an account here?

Looks like the account is no longer active. Pretty pathetic that Tim continues his passive aggressive BS that he believes is fooling everyone, but yet other members get the punishment

[TT-SEA]

And why the conversation last night was so pleasant.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the account is no longer active. Pretty pathetic that Tim continues his passive aggressive BS that he believes is fooling everyone, but yet other members get the punishment

 

 

He constantly turned it into personal attacks.   It will be much more pleasant now... you will see.   

[TT-SEA]

Suddenly its winter at Whistler...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Suddenly its winter at Whistler...

 

Forecast lows in the BC Cariboo tonight are in the mid teens. Definitely an early taste of winter. We often go up there this time of year to have thanksgiving at my family's cabin. Unfortunately we had to pass on it this year as my father has been ill.

[ShawniganLake]

Big snowstorm is southern Alberta today, I assume that extends down into Montana too.

[stuffradio]

In today's JB video, he re-stated that the West coast will have a warm winter and the east cold. Maybe he is getting scared.

[TT-SEA]

Forecast lows in the BC Cariboo tonight are in the mid teens. Definitely an early taste of winter. We often go up there this time of year to have thanksgiving at my family's cabin. Unfortunately we had to pass on it this year as my father has been ill.

 

 

Sorry to hear about your dad.

 

What elevation is your cabin?

[TT-SEA]

My favorite type of October weather today...

 

[Parksvillewx]

Environment Canada just issued a Special weather statement up here for the upcoming storms.

 

 

Statements

2:26 PM PDT Monday 10 October 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:

• East Vancouver Island

A series of powerful October storms will approach the BC South coast Wednesday night bringing heavy rains and strong winds. Rainfall will be heavy at times Thursday through Sunday. Rainfall amounts over the West and Inland areas of Vancouver Island may exceed 200 mm, while inner coastal regions may exceed 100 mm. Strong winds will accompany these storms as well. Winds over exposed coastal areas may exceed 80 km/h at times during the onset of the storms. Rainfall and wind warnings are anticipated as forecast details become clearer towards the start of the storm cycle.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to pacificstorm@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #BCStorm.

[TT-SEA]

Environment Canada just issued a Special weather statement up here for the upcoming storms.

 

 

3 separate windstorms for Vancouver Island and the mainland on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

NW interior of WA included as well... maybe even the rest of the region.  

[ShawniganLake]

Sorry to hear about your dad.

 

What elevation is your cabin?

3600ft, so it's pretty high, but a relatively dry winter climate. Looks like they have had flurries the last couple nights.

 

Thanks. It was a pretty devastating diagnosis for him and the family. Lung cancer that has already spread to at least three other locations. He started radiation on Friday, just less than 3 weeks from his 65th birthday and retirement.

[ShawniganLake]

3 separate windstorms for Vancouver Island and the mainland on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

NW interior of WA included as well... maybe even the rest of the region.

Just out of curiously, with your weatherbell access, can you see where that Saturday storm makes landfall

[TT-SEA]

Just out of curiously, with your weatherbell access, can you see where that Saturday storm makes landfall

 

12Z ECMWF shows it curving back to towards the NW part of Vancouver Island on Saturday afternoon as a 956mb low!  

 

Might be best if that beast stays west.

[Phil]

3600ft, so it's pretty high, but a relatively dry winter climate. Looks like they have had flurries the last couple nights.

 

Thanks. It was a pretty devastating diagnosis for him and the family. Lung cancer that has already spread to at least three other locations. He started radiation on Friday, just less than 3 weeks from his 65th birthday and retirement.

My goodness, so sorry to hear. My thoughts, prayers, and condolences.

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF shows it curving back to towards the NW part of Vancouver Island on Saturday afternoon as a 956mb low!

 

Might be best if that beast stays west.

Thanks. I figured a low that deep would be carving hard northwards as it nears the coast. Going to be fun to track still.

[stuffradio]

3600ft, so it's pretty high, but a relatively dry winter climate. Looks like they have had flurries the last couple nights.

 

Thanks. It was a pretty devastating diagnosis for him and the family. Lung cancer that has already spread to at least three other locations. He started radiation on Friday, just less than 3 weeks from his 65th birthday and retirement.

Sorry to hear! It's a sad diagnosis to get.

[Guest Winterdog]

He constantly turned it into personal attacks.   It will be much more pleasant now... you will see.

Too bad, I actually liked a lot of what he had to say about the weather and the fact he wasn't afraid to say what he felt. I imagine his use of the enn word was the final straw. I thought that was not one of his brighter moments and I was very surprised.

[Farmboy]

In today's JB video, he re-stated that the West coast will have a warm winter and the east cold. Maybe he is getting scared.

Is it really too difficult and time-consuming for him to be a little more specific?  Rather than throwing  a wet blanket on the entire west coast...?  It wouldn't be that difficult for him to expand on that just a bit...

[Timmy Supercell]

I envy those who get to enjoy this potential pineapple express... Things could get juicy (and hopefully windy?).

 

Here I get the taste of a pineapple and no express. I miss the west sides.

There is some magic about warm humid rains there, it's energizing. Not talking about 35 degree rain, the opposite.

 

Alright, enough reminiscing...

High of 70 today. Pleasant, with a few clouds around.

[Geos]

Really nice, crisp autumn day today. High of 58°. Looking like mid 30s tonight. Frost season here we come.

[Deweydog]

And why the conversation last night was so pleasant.

That's not very fair.

 

Did he get banned or is this some kind of protest shtick?

[Deweydog]

No idea.

 

Like fair matters to a certain person.

Who?

[Bryant]

So Jesse gets banned and Tim continues on to insult him freely. This forum is a joke sometimes

[snow_wizard]

I'm really liking the trends for the final week to 10 days of the month.  Now there are even a couple of chilly interludes before then.  The GOA ridge can't be kept down for long this season.  If that continues this winter it will be a great one.  As I mentioned before 1949 is second place to this year (June - Oct) for above normal GOA height anoms.  This year is locked to the be the highest regardless of what happens the rest of this month.

[snow_wizard]

So Jesse gets banned and Tim continues on to insult him freely. This forum is a joke sometimes

 

I will talk to the admins about Jesse.  When he used the N word it was actually in a way that defended blacks.

[Bryant]

I'm really liking the trends for the final week to 10 days of the month. Now there are even a couple of chilly interludes before then. The GOA can't be kept down for long this season. If that continues this winter it will be a great one. As I mentioned before 1949 is second place to this year (June - Oct) for above normal GOA height anoms. This year is locked to the be the highest regardless of what happens the rest of this month.

The overall tendency for ridging over the NPAC is a great sign for the coming months. The increasing cooling in the ENSO regions is also something to look forward to.

[TT-SEA]

I will talk to the admins about Jesse.  When he used the N word it was actually in a way that defended blacks.

 

That would be totally unfair if that was the reason.   That is the complete opposite of how Jesse feels... he was making a point to show how wrong it was to dismiss the people of Haiti.

[westcoastexpat]

So Jesse gets banned and Tim continues on to insult him freely. This forum is a joke sometimes

Jesse has been a thorn in this thread's side for years. I'm relieved to see the venom from that snake has been sucked out of this forum's wound. That's all I will say on the subject, and I think you should contact an admin if you have any concerns moving forward. 

[snow_wizard]

Is it really too difficult and time-consuming for him to be a little more specific?  Rather than throwing  a wet blanket on the entire west coast...?  It wouldn't be that difficult for him to expand on that just a bit...

 

He isn't even aware the blob has transformed into a -PDO.  His forecast is based on a bad premise.  He will bust in a colossal way this winter.  How can he look at the way this month has gone and come up with what he is forecasting?

[snow_wizard]

The overall tendency for ridging over the NPAC is a great sign for the coming months. The increasing cooling in the ENSO regions is also something to look forward to.

 

The entire equation here makes me scratch my head over Bastardi.  He is so out in left field right now.  I did some posting on the Midwest forum and they agree he is nuts.