October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

I thought the jet stream went digital audio years ago.

 

Lol. 

Nice catch.

 

GFS really loads on the moisture.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis
Typhoon Songda has now explosively intensified into a Super Typhoon. This was not forecast and in fact the JMA yesterday only had this reaching Cat 3 before weakening to eventually a Tropical Storm as it is fully ingested by the westerly jet. Pretty amazing it just continues to strengthen even though it is under a strongly sheared environment. I have never seen a fully intact super typhoon being pulled into our westerly jet before. Remnants of or degradation down to a Tropical Storm perhaps, but never a super typhoon and as we speak Songda is accelerating northeastward. I would think this suggest more energy, more latent heat, more explosive cyclogenesis potential.... but where does it make landfall? That is the $32 dollar question
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/23W/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

Model craziness. What's up DJ?.....

Oh not too much, yourself?

[Parksvillewx]

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Typhoon Songda has now explosively intensified into a Super Typhoon. This was not forecast and in fact the JMA yesterday only had this reaching Cat 3 before weakening to eventually a Tropical Storm as it is fully ingested by the westerly jet. Pretty amazing it just continues to strengthen even though it is under a strongly sheared environment. I have never seen a fully intact super typhoon being pulled into our westerly jet before. Remnants of or degradation down to a Tropical Storm perhaps, but never a super typhoon and as we speak Songda is accelerating northeastward. I would think this suggest more energy, more latent heat, more explosive cyclogenesis potential.... but where does it make landfall? That is the $32 dollar question

 

 

Happy your back posting. I've always loved your analysis, especially during cold/snow events,

[Parksvillewx]

Not to often you see the red and white colours on there.

 

[Jbolin]

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Typhoon Songda has now explosively intensified into a Super Typhoon. This was not forecast and in fact the JMA yesterday only had this reaching Cat 3 before weakening to eventually a Tropical Storm as it is fully ingested by the westerly jet. Pretty amazing it just continues to strengthen even though it is under a strongly sheared environment. I have never seen a fully intact super typhoon being pulled into our westerly jet before. Remnants of or degradation down to a Tropical Storm perhaps, but never a super typhoon and as we speak Songda is accelerating northeastward. I would think this suggest more energy, more latent heat, more explosive cyclogenesis potential.... but where does it make landfall? That is the $32 dollar question

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/23W/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

I was noticing this too even back on Sunday as the NE quadrant of Songda was already being entrained into the jet and obvious shear present.

[Gradient Keeper]

What an incredible eye this has

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/movies/MOV3-2.23W.GIF

[TT-SEA]

What an incredible eye this has

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/storm/movies/MOV3-2.23W.GIF

 

 

Amazing that its holding together so well while being clearly pulled into the main flow.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Happy your back posting. I've always loved your analysis, especially during cold/snow events,

Thanks. Every once in a while I check to see how you are all doing here, probably every 2 months I browse around. Hopefully we'll have some legit cold/snow events and arctic blasts to track.

[MossMan]

18z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis

Typhoon Songda has now explosively intensified into a Super Typhoon. This was not forecast and in fact the JMA yesterday only had this reaching Cat 3 before weakening to eventually a Tropical Storm as it is fully ingested by the westerly jet. Pretty amazing it just continues to strengthen even though it is under a strongly sheared environment. I have never seen a fully intact super typhoon being pulled into our westerly jet before. Remnants of or degradation down to a Tropical Storm perhaps, but never a super typhoon and as we speak Songda is accelerating northeastward. I would think this suggest more energy, more latent heat, more explosive cyclogenesis potential.... but where does it make landfall? That is the $32 dollar question

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

 

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/23W/imagery/ir0-lalo.gif

DJ is back! Now I'm excited for fall and winter!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Amazing that its holding together so well while being clearly pulled into the main flow.  

Exactly.

[Brennan]

First real taste of late fall/early winter temps for the PNW and especially the interior and N Rockies as we get toward the last week of Oct...perhaps a 2002 redux.

 

How about a 1984 Redux???

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBLI/1984/10/31/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Bellingham&req_state=WA&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=98229&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

 

Daytime high in the upper 20’s in Bellingham on Halloween. 

[Jbolin]

Kind of eerie to see the euro take Saturday's storm on a track very similar to Columbus Day storm 

[Thunder98]

I'm getting a October 2009 vibe from these storms coming through with typhoon remnants slamming the West Coast.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2009_North_American_storm_complex

[Phil]

When Joe Bastardi dedicates an entire tweet to the PNW wind threat..

 

..you know s**t just got real.

[Jbolin]

When Joe Bastardi dedicates an entire tweet to the PNW wind threat..

 

..you know s**t just got real.

Meh, I don't like the guy but he's in the ballpark 

[Abbotsford_wx]

I'm getting a October 2009 vibe from these storms coming through with typhoon remnants slamming the West Coast.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2009_North_American_storm_complex

Mets up here are referencing October 2003... lots of rain that month (but I don't recall a lot of wind). I think 2009 was more serious down there than it was up here.

[westcoastexpat]

I wouldn't get too excited about the wind potential just yet. Saturday is quite far out. But the precip is something I'd really be keeping an eye on right now... pretty impressive moisture transport.

[ShawniganLake]

Let's go with airport.

Lower than 8".

[luminen]

Looks like I'll get 3" of rain on Thursday alone. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I saw it has been really warm up in Alaska this week. 

[ShawniganLake]

Mets up here are referencing October 2003... lots of rain that month (but I don't recall a lot of wind). I think 2009 was more serious down there than it was up here.

Maybe I'm underestimating the rain but it doesn't look like the setup will rival 2003 right now. Also, I assume the flow must have been more westerly in 2003. Victoria had over 5" in one day, they would have been shadowed too much for that to happen in SW flow. And I don't remember any wind in 2003.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z MM5-NAM

5:00 PM Thursday. Ummm. This is going to be a very intense run

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2016101200.naminit/images_d2/slp.48.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Quick question all, lower or higher than 8" of snow in Portland this winter? Just curious what you all think. I'm in Redmond and my buddy and I have a bet going for our town of over under 20" here. I said higher and he said lower.

 

I would go higher on 8, but 20 is pushing it given recent history.

 

EDIT:  I see...the 20 is for a different town.

[snow_wizard]

My guess is the trajectory is going to be too straight westerly for a major wind event in Seattle, but I could be wrong.

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking, based off previous windstorms of this nature, if Songda retains too much strength it's going to curve too far north to hit the I-5 corridor from Olympia-Everett. I could see the NW Interior and the coast getting pretty D**n windy though.

 

 

That being said, it would be dumb to write it off just yet considering the abnormal power this thing will have.

 

No doubt about that.  The CPC analogs last week had a run of showing October 1962 pretty frequently for the time frame in question.  This will be a different trajectory than 1962 however.

[MossMan]

I'm thinking, based off previous windstorms of this nature, if Songda retains too much strength it's going to curve too far north to hit the I-5 corridor from Olympia-Everett. I could see the NW Interior and the coast getting pretty D**n windy though.

 

 

That being said, it would be dumb to write it off just yet considering the abnormal power this thing will have.

How was the Columbus Day storm able to take the track that it did and not take the major northward curve like so many others? I find these storms so fascinating!

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF weeklies like the idea of a chilly finish to October and then a mild pattern for much of November.  Exactly the combination we want to see in a cold ENSO season.

[snow_wizard]

How was the Columbus Day storm able to take the track that it did and not take the major northward curve like so many others? I find these storms so fascinating!

 

Columbus Day hugged the coast from N California to WA and then tracked inland over southern BC.  It came from much lower latitude than this will.

[MossMan]

OK - well the NAM takes my idea and throws it out the window.

Well the NAM is the NAM but WOW if that were to verify!

[Deweydog]

How was the Columbus Day storm able to take the track that it did and not take the major northward curve like so many others? I find these storms so fascinating!

 

The CDS got sucked into a massive offshore upper level trough and rode the periphery.  One of the reasons the winds at the surface were so high was the fact the trajectory of the storm aligned almost perfectly with the pressure rises.  

[snow_wizard]

Well the NAM is the NAM but WOW if that were to verify!

 

Yeah....the NWS isn't very excited about wind for Thursday.

 

The three storms will hit all have different details concerning track and strength.  Pretty likely most places will get at least decent wind from at least one of the storms.  In some ways the third one looks the most fascinating, although the second one is a beast.

[crf450ish]

Oh not too much, yourself?

I'm getting into the weather again. Fall through late winter early spring is when my weather obsession kicks in.

[ShawniganLake]

My guess is the trajectory is going to be too straight westerly for a major wind event in Seattle, but I could be wrong.

The micro climates of the PNW always are interesting.  I would say a more westerly trajectory produces stronger windstorms up here. 

[MossMan]

The CDS got sucked into a massive offshore upper level trough and rode the periphery. One of the reasons the winds at the surface were so high was the fact the trajectory of the storm aligned almost perfectly with the pressure rises.

Gotcha, thanks for the explanation! Once again I'm sick and twisted but I would sure love to experience something as powerful as that storm in my lifetime!

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah....the NWS isn't very excited about wind for Thursday.

 

The three storms will hit all have different details concerning track and strength.  Pretty likely most places will get at least decent wind from at least one of the storms.  In some ways the third one looks the most fascinating, although the second one is a beast.

0z GFS operational brings a 976mb low into central Vancouver Island late Thursday. 

[crf450ish]

Already down to 30 degrees at my house. Crystal clear skies. One more day of sunny blue skies and chilly temps before the darkness falls upon us. 

[Deweydog]

Gotcha, thanks for the explanation! Once again I'm sick and twisted but I would sure love to experience something as powerful as that storm in my lifetime!

Hell yeah.

 

It would suck, but it would be awesome.

[GHweatherChris]

Beautiful morning, first frost.. glad I dug out the scrapers for my work rig, they were needed.