October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT currently is at 1.35" (if wunderground is correct) that makes it only 10th wettest. If we get more similar fronts coming through before the end of October I could get closer to 2014. 

 

My top 5 wettest.

 

1950 - 2.96"

1979 - 2.84"

1956 - 2.25"

2014 - 2.21"

2004 - 2.07"

 

It doesn't take much to change this months numbers in Klamath. In 2014 only 2 days (22nd, 31st) accounted for about half of the 2.21". Also note that was a really warm month with an indian summer. It was one of the diverse Octobers. The windstorm on the 25th was good here too.

[BLI snowman]

Portland radar is down again. Must have been overworked from all the rain it's been seeing.

[Phil]

Its also your specialty. I've never studied any of that stuff, since my interest lies in climatology more so than weather prediction. So from where I stand, long term analogs are a crapshoot. I'll just wait and see what happens, and then study the result.

 

But I definitely see the value in what you're doing, with regards to potential for improvement. Trial and error...

Thanks. I do see your point, though. In the past I've paid the price for taking particular analog aggregates too literally at face value, particularly w/ the older years and even w/ modern stratospheric dynamics. There are definitely limits.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one?

[TT-SEA]

I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one?

 

 

Interesting... a Nina formed in the summer of 1924 but slowly faded over the winter of 1924-25 and became a modertate El Nino late in the summer of 1925.

 

The lead up to and including Christmas of 1924 was a winter wonderland in my area.   Christmas Day had a high of 27 and a low of 8 with almost a foot of snow on the ground at the Snoqualmie Falls station.  

[Tundra]

Will you guys take a Seahawks super bowl or a 3 day blizzard?

 

3 Day Blizzard

[Farmboy]

I think we will still have some good chances in January and February as well. We just can't take any chances of waiting until the start of January because then we only have 1.5 months of a realistic time frame of getting an Arctic Blast.

 

Yeah, I've noticed the GFS starting to look chilly too. Things should start getting exciting as we head into November.

You're right.  We need to take decisive action now!!  What should we do?

[BLI snowman]

I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one?

 

Weak Nina.

 

Interestingly 1924-25 was the only La Nina winter between 1918 and 1933. Quite an anomaly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting... a Nina formed in the summer of 1924 but slowly faded over the winter of 1924-25 and became a modertate El Nino late in the summer of 1925.

 

The lead up to and including Christmas of 1924 was a winter wonderland in my area.   Christmas Day had a high of 27 and a low of 8 with almost a foot of snow on the ground at the Snoqualmie Falls station.  

 

Salem was 27/5 on Christmas day. 

 

There were about 2 weeks of really cold weather in December that year and then the rest of the winter torched. 

[stuffradio]

You're right.  We need to take decisive action now!!  What should we do?

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

[MossMan]

One thing is for sure...the soils around here are going to be reaching their saturation point early this year, if we get another extended atmospheric river again in the next few weeks flooding will be a much bigger deal.

On the snow front...I can't wait until January, I want a 1985, 1996, 2006, or 2010 November repeat (I think I have 2010 correct) all featured great November snows followed by more later on! Let's do this!

[Sometimesdylan]

12z GFS has 500mb thickness values dropping into the teens, -10c 925mb temps for Juneau next weekend. A nick of arctic air.

 

Haven't seen that in October... I do know that when we get entrenched arctic air, it blows a lot of cold air to you guys.

[Phil]

So, about that NH Hadley Cell..

 

Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg

[Phil]

Big shot into the strat next week on the GFS, FWIW:

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

[ShawniganLake]

So, about that NH Hadley Cell..

 

Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg

And how does this influence things going forward?

[TT-SEA]

So, about that NH Hadley Cell..

 

Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg

 

 

Is that good or bad?   

[Phil]

And how does this influence things going forward?

Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression.

 

Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell.

[TT-SEA]

Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression.

 

Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell.

 

You made it seem really important in your post... not at all important in this response though.  

[Phil]

You made it seem really important in your post... not at all important in this response though.

Important in what context? It's a record breaking anomaly with (at least) near term/subseasonal consequences.

 

Depending on the reason(s) for the anomaly, it could mean a number of things. Regardless, it's notable and probably worth watching in my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Important in what context? It's a record breaking anomaly with (at least) near term/subseasonal consequences.

 

 

That makes it sound like a really important fact... but then you said it does not mean much for us.     I guess its just interesting in general.  

[Phil]

That makes it sound like a really important fact... but then you said it does not mean much for us. I guess its just interesting in general.

I never said that. I think it's too early to know.

 

Feel free to make your own interpretations. Just go to ESRL and plot the relative meridional streamfunction anomalies. No need to rely on me.

[TT-SEA]

I never said that. I think it's too early to know.

 

Feel free to make your own interpretations. Just go to ESRL and plot the relative meridional streamfunction anomalies. No need to rely on me.

 

 

You said it could mean anything for us... sort of Nino and sort of Nina.     I was just thinking it was a clue for our winter but you made it clear there is no way of knowing.

[Tundra]

12z GFS has 500mb thickness values dropping into the teens, -10c 925mb temps for Juneau next weekend. A nick of arctic air.

 

Haven't seen that in October... I do know that when we get entrenched arctic air, it blows a lot of cold air to you guys.

 

Great sign, send us some of that Arctic air down to us!

[Tundra]

I'm not sure I like what the models are showing the last week of October. Here is the latest edition of the 12z EURO for days 8 to 10. It shows a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low pattern. This is a stubborn pattern that takes a while to get rid off. It's more common in El Nino Winters.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/192/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

Looks like October will finish with a moderately negative SOI value. A few values as low as -25 over the last week.

 

Definitely not typical of a Niña fall/winter. Very weak background state as of late.

[jakeinthevalley]

Reports of around 2" of rain in an hour near Lake Oswego. Been hit with several major downpours in McMinnville earlier.  Not registering much at the airport as the showers were training in a very narrow path.  Airport is less than two miles away.

 

Really would like to have radar today.

[Phil]

This has the vibes of a winter that'll be dominated by intraseasonal forcing(s), given the paltry lowfreq/ENSO forcing component.

 

So, factors like QBO/strat, solar, and near/off-equator SSTA influences on convection will probably matter. The quiet IO/-IOD is a good example here..equatorward shift in the high there cooled the IO SSTAs hence the subsidence there.

[Geos]

3.78" here for a 4 day total. 5.23" of rain total for the month.

 

Turning a bit nicer right now. Have some sun peaking through the clouds.

[Deweydog]

PDX still waiting for that first sub-60 day...

[TT-SEA]

SEA is over 6 inches of rain for October now.

 

Here is the list of other years matching that criteria at SEA in chronological order:

 

1947 - 8.95

1950 - 7.21

1955 - 6.60

1956 - 6.71

1967 - 6.66

1981 - 6.40

2003 - 8.96

2012 - 6.17

[MossMan]

SEA is over 6 inches of rain for October now.

 

Here is the list of other years matching that criteria at SEA in chronological order:

 

1947 - 8.95

1950 - 7.21

1955 - 6.60

1956 - 6.71

1967 - 6.66

1981 - 6.40

2003 - 8.96

2012 - 6.17

Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap?

[TT-SEA]

Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap?

 

Ever read up on November 1955?    

[Timmy Supercell]

Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap?

 

Down here Klamath Falls had 100.60" of snow in the '55-'56 winter so I'd say yes.

[crf450ish]

Down here Klamath Falls had 100.60" of snow in the '55-'56 winter so I'd say yes.

I just did a short amount of reading on Klamath Falls. As silly as this is, I never knew just how close it was to the Ocean. Just goes to show elevation is king. You guys must get hammered with snow every year. 

[James Jones]

Reports of around 2" of rain in an hour near Lake Oswego. Been hit with several major downpours in McMinnville earlier.  Not registering much at the airport as the showers were training in a very narrow path.  Airport is less than two miles away.

 

Really would like to have radar today.

I can confirm this. I was driving through West Linn around 1:00, it was some of the heaviest rain I've seen in my life and there were some nearby lightning strikes. The rain was coming down so hard that my windshield wipers were useless, I could barely even see the road.

[Tundra]

So, about that NH Hadley Cell..

 

Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg

 

This must be good news. This past Winter the only real Wintry event we got down to sea level was the minor PDX snow event in early January which coincides with the strongest Northern hadley cell.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I will be coming up with the best analogs based on the number of geese migrating over my house this season. Stay tuned for a deep analysis... I am sure it will be valuable.

[Kayla]

PDX still waiting for that first sub-60 day...

 

Back to back days of that 60-61 not even showing up on those over the top 10 minute observation updates.

 

The agony! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I did not expect today to be so wet. 1.66" of rain so far today! 11.58" on the month. 

[Dave]

I will be coming up with the best analogs based on the number of geese migrating over my house this season. Stay tuned for a deep analysis... I am sure it will be valuable.

I have found that geese migrations are generally unreliable analogs.  What I like to use is squirrel girth.  The fatter they are, the colder the winter.  They are some of the fattest I've seen this year.