October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Special Marine Warnings being issued by Eureka today. Some t'storms offshore capable of producing waterspouts. Very active October regarding convection this year, considering everything else before this.

Blob.

[catnip]

It's crazy how hard it's been raining today.

 

Whats crazy, or should I say Sad, is that it has rained the last 27 out of 30 days here!

 

:(

[stuffradio]

Whats crazy, or should I say Sad, is that it has rained the last 27 out of 30 days here!

 

:(

I think you meant S.A.D.

[Jesse]

Again, I think the concern is misplaced. The bigger issue is getting blocking where you need it, not how "warm" the source region is. You can have a super cold Arctic, but with no mechanism to deliver the cold air, it doesn't matter.

 

Likewise, we've seen that when you get the right blocking, even our current tropical Arctic is still cold enough to deliver the goods.

Sure, but at the same time I don't think you can spin arctic warming as a non-issue.

[bainbridgekid]

Interesting, goes against what people here say, but this winter will be a good test hopefully

I suppose it's possible Glenhaven is far enough South that there wasn't enough outflow at the onset of the snow, but I know the North end of the lake got hammered with ~16" on 2/23/14.

 

I hiked up to the top of Sehome Hill (630 feet elevation) in Bellingham and they had 18". It was incredible.

 

Glenhaven is likely a bit feast or famine. There are times the outflow gets blocked by the Mountains to your North and West which keeps you rain, but you also get more moisture and more snow as long as the outflow penetrates South of Bellingham.

 

I wouldn't take your neighbors word about not getting much snow too seriously. Nobody's gotten much of any the last couple Winters which is fresh in people's minds.

[TT-SEA]

October 2016 is now the 10th wettest month ever record at SEA.

 

Scott has a typo in his graphic that reads October 2006 being in 10th place... he meant to type October 2016.  

 

Of course November of 2006 is still the top dog.

 

http://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/seattles-relentlessly-rainy-october-sloshes-its-way-into-top-10-wettest-on-record

[SilverFallsAndrew]

With no radar I can't tell if PDX has a shot...SLE made it...I hit the 17" mark this morning for the month. I feel like we are "due" for some dry weather. 

[Phil]

Sure, but at the same time I don't think you can spin arctic warming as a non-issue.

It's an overplayed issue, IMO. We've had all-time records fall here on multiple occasions in 2013/14 and 2014/15. We even set an all time record low for the month of March.

[TT-SEA]

October 2016 is now the wettest month ever recorded in Spokane.   

 

Not just October... but ever recorded.   Impressive.

[Jesse]

It's an overplayed issue, IMO. We've had all-time records fall here on multiple occasions in 2013/14 and 2014/15. We even set an all time record low for the month of March.

Perhaps. But again, your area is more topographically favored than ours. Give us a several year stretch featuring a few top-tier arctic outbreaks here (none of the watered down 2006-2014 stuff) and maybe I will reconsider my stance.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So now comes word the Portland radar will be out until at least mid-November...

[TT-SEA]

So now comes word the Portland radar will be out until at least mid-November...

 

 

Holy crap.    That is horrible.    

 

Our government sucks.

[Deweydog]

Holy crap.    That is horrible.    

 

Our government sucks.

 

HRC wouldn't stand for this.  

[stuffradio]

HRC wouldn't stand for this.  

If Trump were elected, he would build a wall around the radar to keep the technicians in the building until it was repaired!

[Dave]

So now comes word the Portland radar will be out until at least mid-November...

D**n.  What a piece of crap.  At least it will likely be fixed before the coolish season gets going.

[Gradient Keeper]

"The new Radar we'll be putting in for Portland, Oregon is going to be incredible. Just incredible. It's going to be the greatest thing you've ever seen. Mark my words. It will be huge. It will be incredible. Believe me, it will be the greatest incredible thing ever. It will be hugely incredible and great. We will build a wall around it and then another wall around that wall. That wall and the other wall will be incredible. Believe me." - Donald Trump

 

"The e-mails and findings from technicians regarding this Doppler Radar site are being investigated. I just hope they figure out what's going on because I have no idea about any of this." - Hillary Clinton

 

"What?.... What's a Radar Site... No, I don't know where Portland, Oregon is. Is it near Syria?" - Gary Johnson

[Phil]

Lol

[TT-SEA]

"The new Radar we'll be putting in for Portland, Oregon is going to be incredible. Just incredible. It's going to be the greatest thing you've ever seen. Mark my words. It will be huge. It will be incredible. Believe me, it will be the greatest incredible thing ever. It will be hugely incredible and great. We will build a wall around it and then another wall around that wall. That wall and the other wall will be incredible. Believe me." - Donald Trump

 

"The e-mails and findings from technicians regarding this Doppler Radar site are being investigated. I just hope they figure out what's going on because I have no idea about any of this." - Hillary Clinton

 

"What?.... What's a Radar Site... No, I don't know where Portland, Oregon is. Is it near Syria?" - Gary Johnson

 

That is exactly how Trump talks. Like a child running for president.

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm surprised we don't have technicians here trained to fix it? Oh well. Just in time for the western ridge to collapse, a 180-200kt jet, and 959mb low to slam into Astoria. Widespread devastation.

 

Then in early January. the Radar site fails again just as an outer worldly arctic front steams through Clinton, BC with a pressure rise of 8mb/hr flooding into the Fraser River valley and 488dm heights over Prince George as bitter, Siberian air mass is shoved southward due to a 1070mb high over southern Yukon down to Dease Lake, BC. Seattle NWS will know it's coming, but those in Portland won't, and will likely all freeze to death due to being unaware. An icy, frozen death.

 

Time to dust off the 8-14 day 500mb composite analogs. They are heavily used from November onward.

[Front Ranger]

Sure, but at the same time I don't think you can spin arctic warming as a non-issue.

Not spinning anything. I just don't see a logical reason to be concerned that the current state of the Arctic ice makes it less likely for Arctic outbreaks this winter.

 

There is simply no support for that. In our modern climate, it's almost always "warm" in the Arctic. But an especially warm Arctic in the fall does not mean there will not be an adequate cold supply later.

 

Blocking is easily more important, especially for you guys. And a lot of signs point towards a blocky winter of some sort.

[Front Ranger]

Perhaps. But again, your area is more topographically favored than ours. Give us a several year stretch featuring a few top-tier arctic outbreaks here (none of the watered down 2006-2014 stuff) and maybe I will reconsider my stance.

There was nothing watered down about Nov 2010, Feb 2011, or Dec 2013. You just haven't had a top tier setup in the heart of winter recently.

[bainbridgekid]

Not spinning anything. I just don't see a logical reason to be concerned that the current state of the Arctic ice makes it less likely for Arctic outbreaks this winter.

 

There is simply no support for that. In our modern climate, it's almost always "warm" in the Arctic. But an especially warm Arctic in the fall does not mean there will not be an adequate cold supply later.

In theory a warmer Arctic should make for a weaker PV which could even make for more US arctic outbreaks.

 

Weather is weird and complicated.

[Gradient Keeper]

10/31/16 4:44 PM [ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z NAM in 2 hours 1 minute

00z GFS in 3 hours 44 minutes

00z GEM/CMC in 4 hours 44 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 3 minutes

[Timmy Supercell]

There is a thunderstorm south of Eureka that has shown couplets on velocity offshore, hook echo and likely dropped one or two waterspouts. I haven't checked out the reports yet but this looks like one of the storms that struck NW Oregon coast on 10/14 when low topped supercells formed. 

[Front Ranger]

In theory a warmer Arctic should make for a weaker PV which could even make for more US arctic outbreaks.

 

Weather is weird and complicated.

Yep. Less likelihood of all-time great Arctic outbreaks with a warmer source region, but perhaps a higher number. The general severity of the outbreak still comes down mainly to the level of blocking.

 

If we saw an exact replay of Jan 1950 blocking, SEA would still see a top 2 or 3 coldest January.

[Deweydog]

So if I'm reading this right, the warm sea ice should bring us 2-3 cold Januaries this winter?

[Timmy Supercell]

There was nothing watered down about Nov 2010, Feb 2011, or Dec 2013. You just haven't had a top tier setup in the heart of winter recently.

 

Just sounds like someone locally may not have been lucky. All of those were good events regionally. Nov 2010 was snowier than normal when I moved here. And Dec 2013 was my coldest December since 1972. Watered down, I don't think so.

[IbrChris]

Shawnigan Lake will end up with ~12.5" of rain for October. Good for 2nd place all time, since 1911.

Nov 1911 had a nice Arctic shot early month

[IbrChris]

There is a thunderstorm south of Eureka that has shown couplets on velocity offshore, hook echo and likely dropped one or two waterspouts. I haven't checked out the reports yet but this looks like one of the storms that struck NW Oregon coast on 10/14 when low topped supercells formed.

The question now is why are so many low-topped tornadic supercells hitting the coast this year? Might be the new fall tornado alley.

[Abbotsford_wx]

I couldn't even remember December 2013... had to look it up... lol. Almost a non-event up here.

[Phil]

From September to October, the SOI plunged nearly 20 points.

 

Crazy stuff.

[Front Ranger]

I couldn't even remember December 2013... had to look it up... lol. Almost a non-event up here.

EUG hit -10.

 

They would have hit -15 if the Arctic wasn't so D**n warm!

[Phil]

Looking back to 1876, no monthly SOI drop (between September to October) comes close to 2016's plunge.

[Abbotsford_wx]

EUG hit -10.

 

They would have hit -15 if the Arctic wasn't so D**n warm!

 

Right, I must have been confusing that with Feb 2014. Two good events that winter down there that were pretty forgettable up here.

[Jesse]

Not spinning anything. I just don't see a logical reason to be concerned that the current state of the Arctic ice makes it less likely for Arctic outbreaks this winter.

 

There is simply no support for that. In our modern climate, it's almost always "warm" in the Arctic. But an especially warm Arctic in the fall does not mean there will not be an adequate cold supply later.

 

Blocking is easily more important, especially for you guys. And a lot of signs point towards a blocky winter of some sort.

 

I never said that though, Jared. My point is that a warmer source region makes a top-tier airmass less likely overall. Especially in a region that is already marginal like ours. The proof is in the last 26 years (1990 was our last truly top-tier airmass).

 

I'm not sure if you are trying to frame it like I am saying a warm arctic will preclude any arctic outbreaks this winter as a strawman, or if you actually think that is what I'm trying to argue.

[wx_statman]

Perhaps. But again, your area is more topographically favored than ours. Give us a several year stretch featuring a few top-tier arctic outbreaks here (none of the watered down 2006-2014 stuff) and maybe I will reconsider my stance.

 

The fact that PDX hasn't seen a maximum below 23 since 1990 is very telling. CAA just isn't strong as it used to be. We had 12 separate cold waves that produced maximums of 22 or lower between 1940-1990, for a recurrence interval of 4.2 years. Compared to 26 years and counting in the present climate. 

[wx_statman]

Not spinning anything. I just don't see a logical reason to be concerned that the current state of the Arctic ice makes it less likely for Arctic outbreaks this winter.

 

There is simply no support for that. In our modern climate, it's almost always "warm" in the Arctic. But an especially warm Arctic in the fall does not mean there will not be an adequate cold supply later.

 

Blocking is easily more important, especially for you guys. And a lot of signs point towards a blocky winter of some sort.

 

As far as I understand, mid-latitude Rossby waves are driven by the equator-pole heat exchange. With a warmer Arctic, the temperature gradient between the tropics and the polar regions is lessened, thereby necessitating less poleward heat transfer - and less rebound equatorward transfer of cold air. Simply put, meridional flow in the mid-latitudes and the associated blocking isn't as strong with a warmer Arctic, in general. There can be exceptions on a case by case basis, as always. 

[wx_statman]

Yep. Less likelihood of all-time great Arctic outbreaks with a warmer source region, but perhaps a higher number. The general severity of the outbreak still comes down mainly to the level of blocking.

 

If we saw an exact replay of Jan 1950 blocking, SEA would still see a top 2 or 3 coldest January.

 

The question here is how likely is that "if?" 

[wx_statman]

"55"

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=pqr&sid=pdx&num=60&raw=0&banner=off

[Deweydog]

The fact that PDX hasn't seen a maximum below 23 since 1990 is very telling. CAA just isn't strong as it used to be. We had 12 separate cold waves that produced maximums of 22 or lower between 1940-1990, for a recurrence interval of 4.2 years. Compared to 26 years and counting in the present climate.

This can even be taken a step further when you look at days from a pure CAA standpoint. One day in that 26 years (January 1996) with a high below 25 degrees.