Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Since the GFS updated to scrambled porn on HBO a few years ago, the WRF has become unusable when it comes to CAA in the mid/long range. CAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It has several days of really cold weather. What more can you ask this early in the season. 24-36" of snow, temps 3-19, and 65-90mph easterly Gorge winds. 12z NAM in 6 hours 23 minutes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 5... getting closer to saving the night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said: CAA? Cold Air Advection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: You mean like this? IF this were to ever somehow pan out this would be the coldest I can recall. Ever. Expect a bold statement from Cliff Mass soon... 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 It never ceases to amaze me how fast people are willing to freak out when one run of one model doesn't go perfectly. In reality the ECMWF still gives Seattle snow and a few days of cold temps. 3 1 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Block needs to be --> a few notches to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I really hope it does snow, I could use a few days off work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 More of Day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said: CAA? Cold air advection 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It never ceases to amaze me how fast people are willing to freak out when one run of one model doesn't go perfectly. In reality the ECMWF still gives Seattle snow and a few days of cold temps. I'm not trolling I just think changes within 7 days are more likely than snow maps at hour 240 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 One thing I'll say is if we meet in the middle between the ECMWF and GFS there will be a lot of happy people on here. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Block needs to be --> a few notches to the east. It's good as is for SEA but down your way that could be true. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Kinda got a 2020 feel January 2020? There was some pretty wicked low level cold with that. I think it’s unlikely we see a Fraser outflow as cold as that with this setup. Maybe it will push further south but the Fraser valley was pretty frigid in January 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bueryan said: I'm not trolling I just think changes within 7 days are more likely than snow maps at hour 240 I never trust snowfall maps at 240. This thing is relatively close now. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me Forget it. People are ready to give up already. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Day 7... looks like it's moving east to me Same issues as the ECMWF Op... Maybe bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 zzzzzz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The EPS shows no signs of the trouble the operational shows around day 8 or 9. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Same issues as the ECMWF Op... Maybe bit colder. Almost day 8. Looks way better to me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: The EPS shows no signs of the trouble the operational shows around day 8 or 9. Not breaking down the ridge? That's good. 12z was similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: Almost day 8. Looks way better to me How do 850s look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 My final word for the night is chill out people. It's going to be fine. 1 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, snow_wizard said: My final word for the night is chill out people. It's going to be fine. For Washington, probably, but hey stay tuned a lot of tense model riding ahead! 12z GFS in 8 hours 7 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Almost day 8. Looks way better to me Better than GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 that is a pretty solid SE ridge. my inlaws where complaining about a Thanksgiving in the 60s today and getting warmer next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Day 8 Not cold enough 850s. Dang it. We really need the polar lobe to dig south through BC, not off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The EPS spits out MUCH colder surface temps than the operational days 9 and 10. Offshore pressure gradients and chilly 850s. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 EPS 850T (Mean + P10-90) for next Saturday. That's significantly less pullback than the 00Z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Not cold enough 850s. Dang it. We really need the polar lobe to dig south through BC, not off the coast. I hope you're kidding. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Wondering where all the cold air went on the ECMWF/EPS. It is NOWHERE close to as cold as previous runs. The PV not phasing with the arctic trough funneling bitter air south? or just the fact its digging too much off the BC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: that is a pretty solid SE ridge. my inlaws where complaining about a Thanksgiving in the 60s today and getting warmer next week SE ridge is always the extra insurance. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 hitting the sack, mixed signals, we'll see what tomorrow brings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Day 9 And that is with offshore flow and cold surface temps. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Phishy Wx said: hitting the sack, mixed signals, we'll see what tomorrow brings. All looks cold to me with the exception of the end of the ECMWF operational. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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