Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I know EPS snowfall maps aren't worth much, but I'll post it anyway. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Meanwhile, a bit of amplification in the wind forecast for the next few hours. 50s MPH around Everett. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: Meanwhile, a bit of amplification in the wind forecast for the next few hours. 50s MPH around Everett. Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful. 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Meatyorologist said: Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful. Yet another strong fall front. This fall they have all been very dynamic and feature a sharp back edge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said: Euro massively overestimates near-sfc winds. Still though, it's pretty gusty outside right now. Feels wonderful. It's been better in that regard this year. It used to be hilarious. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Yet another strong fall front. This fall they have all been very dynamic and feature a sharp back edge. That they have. Hence the impeccable sunsets! 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just now, Nov1985 said: It's been better in that regard this year. It used to be hilarious. Oh was it worse??! No way! That's hilarious. It's bad enough as it is Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Dude I was thinking the same thing. Plenty of potential for this happening now EPS Day 9 That is quite close to producing a major backdoor blast into northeast Washington/Columbia basin. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: Yep. PDX metro temps fall to 33-34 4 PM - 10 PM Thursday. 32 by 4 AM Friday. Snow! Just in time to get off work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Night Shift in 1 hour 22 minutes Watching for any possible changes Day 2-4 with the arctic trough and then Day 5+ looking for jet suppression similar to the 00z run last night. Think Cold and SNOW! C'MON!!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Crazy how it takes 1 run to change the vibe. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 No single model is a ride or die at this point. They are all a mess. Enjoy the ride! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening. Seen it happen before. Models start getting better data input starting soon as the pattern takes shape up stream over Alaska. Pretty limited surface data out over the North Pacific and arctic 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Just so we're all on the same page of what the best possible setup is. 8 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Crazy how it takes 1 run to change the vibe. All minus as far as the eye can see. NAO is tanked as well. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Even the NAVGEM shows that anafront and low coming out of the south. Hopefully tomorrow's runs continue to show this feature. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Is there any chance no matter how remote of an eastward shift? We are within 72-84 hours of the possibly impossible, but not impossibly possible happening. The thing is, it wouldn't take much to make a huge difference. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Second cold chance obvious in a view of the members. Mean never above 40 other than Wednesday.  4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Once again, a fairly impressive rain-shadow from about Everett to Tacoma thanks to the Olympics. Snow is dumping it's load on the Olympics and Cascade's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 25 members on the EPS showed SEA having at least one low below 25 at some point during week 2 with a good handful of those going below 20. 1 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Once again, a fairly impressive rain-shadow from about Everett to Tacoma thanks to the Olympics. Snow is dumping it's load on the Olympics and Cascade's. Just under 3” on the month here. We average 9”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 A large tree just came down somewhere close but not our yard. Woke up the kid. I enjoy how the hourly resolution of HRRR reveals passing fronts so well. Here's Sunday night's front. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Nov1985 said: A large tree just came down somewhere close but not our yard. Woke up the kid. I enjoy how the hourly resolution of HRRR reveals passing fronts so well. Here's Sunday night's front. Holy pancakes! Glad it wasn't any closer. Oh look at the Fraser outflow quickly developing! Hmmm!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Night Shift Day 1 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 2 (Past 4 runs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 2.5 (Past 4 runs) Well no luck with any changes or favorable trends with the arctic trough. Looks a notch further west and cyclogenesis occurring sooner unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 I don't think the relationship between the bombing low upstream of the block and the placement of the block is quite exactly linear. Despite the run appearing worse initially, the low is actually further southeast than on the 00z GFS. 3 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Now the trough edged a few notches to the east. Hmmm.... Probably negligible differences overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: I don't think the relationship between the bombing low upstream of the block and the placement of the block is quite exactly linear. Despite the run appearing worse initially, the low is actually further southeast than on the 00z GFS. Exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 The differences between the 06z and 00z are surmounting. By day 3.5 it looks like a substantial correction. 2 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Heavy eyes on the late week trough. Looks like a much, much better setup for it. 4 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 4 (Past 4 runs) Trough is noticeably further east and the block also has been nudged east. Hmmm... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) Block another notch further east and system south of the Aleutians is really nudging the block. Trough a notch east and more consolidated. Southeast ridge a few notches east too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Okay... 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) Is the GFS just messing with us, one last middle finger? or.... Because that's real noticeable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeepFriedEgg Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Anafront also sets up furher east if you can even call it that anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 Man I loved that anafront but in the greater scheme of things this is far better 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 27, 2022 Report Share Posted November 27, 2022 This could be the little move east we have been hoping for. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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