November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is tonight/tomorrow morning out the window? Nobody is talking about that anymore. 

Next 24 hours... I think both of us have a chance at some snow by tomorrow morning.  

[Terreboner]

Pretty sad that Spokane AFD does a thorough discussion and is the one that has to mention the storm linked to the anafront that is being forecast.  The same front that will be draped right over central OR and a good portion of the southern/central Willamette Valley.

Pendleton AFD, in their typical fashion, does a small paragraph followed by a copy and paste of the overnight discussion.  Lazy bastards.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

39.7. Would be a good day to begin hibernation. 

[TacomaWx]

Overall considering the big letdown on how this week could’ve played out versus how it likely will now…this isn’t a bad run. Should be a decent overrunning event for a lot of people especially up north and good potential as we move further into December. Pretty active theme the past month or so which overall is exciting lots of years we’ve had to wait until February for anything interesting. 

[Guest administrator]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro also WAY warmer than the GFS. 

Please post some long range stuff that shows the season being a dud for anyone not at your elevation. I know you can do it, you’ve got it in you, just let it out.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX sneaks all the way down to freezing by the morning of the 7th on this Euro run. 

Otherwise a ton of rain and mountain snow w/relatively low snow levels in the mean time.

[Kolk1604]

Block looks better this run, but I think a little too far west. The ridge bridge now being shown on the Op just like last night's EPS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Pretty sad that Spokane AFD does a thorough discussion and is the one that has to mention the storm linked to the anafront that is being forecast.  The same front that will be draped right over central OR and a good portion of the southern/central Willamette Valley.

Pendleton AFD, in their true fashion, does a small paragraph followed by a copy and paste of the overnight discussion.  Lazy bastards.

How about this. Take some online classes through Mississippi State, get your met degree and get a cushy federal

job at Pendleton NWS writing book form AFDs. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

.30” rain overnight here. Currently 44 after a low of 42. Ended up with a mostly cloudy and cool 45/38 day yesterday.

[Terreboner]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How about this. Take some online classes through Mississippi State, get your met degree and get a cushy federal

job at Pendleton NWS writing book form AFDs. 

I'm pretty sure that most of us "amateurs" could write more compelling forecasts than the Pendleton NWS office.  Unless of course, it has to do with the highly populated Blue mountains and Blue mountain foothills, the very populated Columbia basin, and of course, the metropolis of Pendleton.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX sneaks all the way down to freezing by the morning of the 7th on this Euro run. 

Otherwise a ton of rain and mountain snow w/relatively low snow levels in the mean time.

December 1998 redux?! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Is tonight/tomorrow morning out the window? Nobody is talking about that anymore. 

You will get some action tonight 

[MossMan]

Ice pellets falling from the sky! 

[Randyc321]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Next 24 hours... I think both of us have a chance at some snow by tomorrow morning.  

current 925 mb temps  11:09 am

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Next 24 hours... I think both of us have a chance at some snow by tomorrow morning.  

Might see a few flakes mix in if we’re lucky.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, administrator said:

Please post some long range stuff that shows the season being a dud for anyone not at your elevation. I know you can do it, you’ve got it in you, just let it out.

Not getting that feeling this year. Grateful for getting dumped on earlier this month because I could see this week featuring a lot of 35 degree rain here. If that anafront doesn’t work out later this week it’s not going to be very memorable down here. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You will get some action tonight 

Looks like around 11pm or so some activity ramps up around your place.

[Randyc321]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

39.7. Would be a good day to begin hibernation. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

@Cascadia_Wx

Think about it. Jim has had more freezes this month than PDX might have all winter and he’ll probably end up with around 200. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have a good feeling that Tim will get hammered at least once this week. And I'm not talking about micro brews I think he likes.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ice pellets falling from the sky! 

Good sign for later. Hope I can at least get at least a dusting tonight. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Might see a few flakes mix in if we’re lucky.  

Might be enough for our first flakes of the year…..

[Hawksfan2008]

uptick in snow totals on the EPS 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have a good feeling that Tim will get hammered at least once this week. And I'm not talking about micro brews I think he likes.

I am sure there will definitely be snow at times... but I doubt we will be "hammered" here.    The overall pattern with lows heading south off the coast is more favorable for the Hood Canal area than out here.    We tend to get warm-nosed in these situations.   

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Might be enough for our first flakes of the year…..

I think we’ve got a chance tonight…but a much higher chance Tuesday/Wednesday. That looks pretty favorable to start out as snow and maybe some brief accumulation at best. The stuff tonight is more spotty convective showers. We could get lucky though the models have shown some showers around in the south sound overnight. 

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I think we’ve got a chance tonight…but a much higher chance Tuesday/Wednesday. That looks pretty favorable to start out as snow and maybe some brief accumulation at best. The stuff tonight is more spotty convective showers. We could get lucky though the models have shown some showers around in the south sound overnight. 

PSCZ......only way up there overnight.

[Doinko]

We had some localized surprise snow in the night on December 13th last year. I think the NWS was forecasting 1000' snow levels and light rain but then some very heavy showers went over us dropping a quick inch of snow in a short amount of time. It then cleared and froze in the morning. Very isolated too I think.

Hoping something like that happens sometimes this week

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Terreboner said:

PSCZ......only way up there overnight.

Some of the hi-res models have shown some heavy showers here in the south overnight. That could be enough to get some flakes. It’s not a big chance though obviously…certainly not going to get 1/2” of snow overnight like the euro shows. 

[Deweydog]

I’ve had two “is it gonna snow” texts from family members so far today. 

[snow_wizard]

Geeze.  We might as well just throw darts at this point.  One thing we do know is all of the models show all of the indices will be absolutely tanked for the next 2 weeks.  This is going to be very abnormal no matter how it plays out.

One thing I will say is I'm having trouble believing how wet the ECMWF runs have been with so much blocking in play.  I really can't think of an analog to that.

[snow_wizard]

The cold and dry theme for week two seems to be gaining momentum at this point.  The snow potential before that is an absolute crap shoot except the NW Interior of WA.  Small details could be the difference between a foot and a trace for the Seattle area.  An absolute guess for the Seattle area would be 3 to 5 inches over the next 10 days.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The cold and dry theme for week two seems to be gaining momentum at this point.  The snow potential before that is an absolute crap shoot except the NW Interior of WA.  Small details could be the difference between a foot and a trace for the Seattle area.  An absolute guess for the Seattle area would be 3 to 5 inches over the next 10 days.

I'm really hoping that second low goes far enough south to bring offshore flow and snow here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  We might as well just throw darts at this point.  One thing we do know is all of the models show all of the indices will be absolutely tanked for the next 2 weeks.  This is going to be very abnormal no matter how it plays out.

One thing I will say is I'm having trouble believing how wet the ECMWF runs have been with so much blocking in play.  I really can't think of an analog to that.

Idk February 2019 had a ton of blocking and it was very wet down here. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Idk February 2019 had a ton of blocking and it was very wet down here. 

I was going to say... blocking can sometimes lead to ridiculously wet patterns.   

[The Cats Meow]

Wondering if we will ever get an old school arctic blast like when I was a kid.

Miss those things.

[TacomaWx]

In the current weather situation it’s 45 here and mostly cloudy. Picked up another 0.10” here in the last 24 hours and we’re up to 3.97” MTD which is a bit over 50% of normal rainfall. We’re also running -3.7 on the month. 

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Block looks better this run, but I think a little too far west. The ridge bridge now being shown on the Op just like last night's EPS

Looking increasingly likely this blocking is going to be an ongoing feature this winter.  We are rapidly reaching the point of no return on that IMO.  This might be enough to break the January curse.  Remains to be seen of course.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Wondering if we will ever get an old school arctic blast like when I was a kid.

Miss those things.

Eventually.  Certainly elevated chances with so much blocking in the picture.

[High Desert Mat?]

7 minutes ago, Hour364Please said:

Wondering if we will ever get an old school arctic blast like when I was a kid.

Miss those things.

Not bloody likely!!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m the current weather situation it’s 45 here and mostly cloudy. Picked up another 0.10” here in the last 24 hours and we’re up to 3.97” MTD which is a bit over 50% of normal rainfall. We’re also running -3.7 on the month. 

You're the current weather situation?  How does that work?