Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said: 00z is snowier than the 18z I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!! AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!! 2 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: 00z is snowier than the 18z There you go @SouthHillFrosty You get phantom snow too! Cheer up. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!! AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!! Living on the edge!! 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 38F and rain here. According to some models I should be seeing snow. It looks like the -1C 925mb line is to Darrington which is why it probably switched over (not to mention its mountain locale), but the rest of the Sound is just at freezing. 1 Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 hours ago, Timmy said: What ever happened to phil I posted twice today. Just got buried quickly. 5 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I’m in the BRIGHT PINK!!! AND I DON’T OWN A GENERATOR!!! We've lost power about 8 times over the last year. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: We've lost power about 8 times over the last year. I think we’ve lost it three times here due to weather in the 12 years we’ve been here. 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) Must be dumping snow up in Abbotsford. Anyone got a webcam from up there?…. Edit: yep Edited November 28, 2022 by Brennan 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 33 minutes ago, Winterdog said: This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform. Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it. It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap. Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces. Weenie psychosis Apparently the main problem with the GFS is data assimilation (i.e. the observations of the atmosphere that make up the starting conditions for the model run) 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us. 4 3 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I think we’ve lost it three times here due to weather in the 12 years we’ve been here. Three times is like a monthly thing up here! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenEars Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brennan said: Must be dumping snow up in Abbotsford. Anyone got a webcam from up there? Its coming down hard. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 (edited) On 11/26/2022 at 5:18 PM, LowerGarfield said: That's seems like such an interesting job. I had a 5:45 flight, first one of the day from KGEG to Oakland on Thanksgiving. It was really unique watching them de-ice the aircraft. I'd never had the pleasure of seeing it in person. Yeah, funny concept. Dude in a bucket spraying glycol all over the plane. Edited November 28, 2022 by Brennan 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Three times is like a monthly thing up here! That’s how it is here too. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, MossMan said: He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us. The snow devil! 1 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Looks like it’s about to start raining soon at my location. Convergence zone seems to be shifting south. 2 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said: GFS up to its usual tricks. Garbage. One would be wise to never believe the GFS unless the ECMWF/EPS are in agreement. Look at the pretty colors and ignore it. 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 21 minutes The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked! 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Some kind of wintry mix. Sounds like it's raining ice pellets outside. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked! It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 37 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: 00z is snowier than the 18z Sweet spot for Spokane/Coeur d'Alene, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, MossMan said: He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us. Santa? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Randyc321 said: There you go @SouthHillFrosty You get phantom snow too! Cheer up. Haha preciate the love Not trying to be a doubter. Glad some ppl up north will score 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: The GFS, overdoing cold air advection?! Why, I never! I’m simply shocked! @Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Back to all snow. Very sloppy and not sticking yet. Temp at 34.1 1 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest administrator Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 22 minutes ago, MossMan said: He’s watching us…He’s always watching all of us. Rich would ban snow maps too. I've sent him an invite to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster. They kind of owe the world an explanation for what they changed and why it made the predictions worse. 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, administrator said: @Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts? NO! I love those maps! 1 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, administrator said: @Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts? If the model is consistently wrong, there's no reason to look at it. Do we have any plots showing predictions vs. observations? 2 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post North_County Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Strike that. Noticed the ice pellet sound disappeared within a few seconds of writing that, so went out to check. Radar was right. 11 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, North_County said: Strike that. Noticed the ice pellet sound disappeared within a few seconds of writing that, so went out to check. Radar was right. Merry Christmas 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 28, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Sumas highway cam. 9 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Merry Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Winterdog said: This seems to be the worst l've seen it perform. Not only is it way off temperature wise it shows snow all the time while the temps couldn't possibly support it. It seems ridiculous that we would spend hours detailing every nuance of it's output when we know it's pure crap. Knowing this I still like seeing the phony forecasts it produces. Weenie psychosis Yeah, I also feel this way. It makes you doubt everything it outputs. What's worse is that the 'new' GFS shows the same unrealistic snow totals. I thought borderline snow events was specifically one of the things that was improved in the new version. Guess not for the PNW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Sumas highway cam. Crazy how fast that started sticking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, administrator said: @Gradient Keeper@Rubus Leucodermismaybe we ban the GFS, or at least 2m temps and snowfall? @Meatyorologistthoughts? Ban snowfall maps that show snow at surface temperatures above +2˚C or 925's above -2˚C. 3 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 12 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: It was never this bad until their "upgrade". I remember when the WRF was very accurate and reliable. We use to utilized the 4k/12km sounding all the time and it was spot on. Now it's a disaster. The precip type characterization has also gone to sh*t in the past several years. It is if the models think water freezes at +3˚C. 1 1 It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 I remember very well when Mark Nelsen used to heavily rely on the WRF and the 4km soundings especially. Now, not so much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 Should I use my UW email to get thru to Cliff Mass and have him tweak his favorite Uw GRF GFS model? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joelgombiner Posted November 28, 2022 Report Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 minute ago, RayRay said: Should I use my UW email to get thru to Cliff Mass and have hi tweak his favorite Uw GRF GFS model? See what he says. He should have the ability to analyze model skill. 1 Useful weather links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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