November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

The Weatherbell winter forecast makes no sense.  Some of the analogs they are using from Nino seasons.  Is anyone shocked they are going for a cold east and warm west? 

BTW current Nino 3.4 anoms are still around -1.0.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

From the 6z. It’s already gone on the 12z tho 

The models are going to be wildly erratic.  An amplified outcome is likely with a strong MJO wave in the picture.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Lovely frosty morning here, with a low of 28. Coldest of the fall so far. Looks like PDX finally scored a freeze too.

Ended up falling to 33 by midnight last night for a 51/33 spread yesterday.

I thought PDX had a 28 a few days ago.  Maybe I was looking at a different station and thought it was PDX.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I thought PDX had a 28 a few days ago.  Maybe I was looking at a different station and thought it was PDX.

Could have been VUO. They are only a couple miles downriver but do way better for radiational cooling. Their highs are generally a little cooler too. PDX is kind of a hot box.

I realized I had a 28 on the morning of the 9th too. Although that was a 28.3 whereas this morning was a 27.6, so it’s still coldest of the season so far.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Fog and low clouds have rushed in quickly this morning after a clear and frosty start. Kind of the opposite of yesterday. Still just 35 here. Should be a chilly one.

Looks like PDX hit 30 this morning which is nothing short of a miracle.

[SimplySmoothWX]

Hit 26 here today. Quite chilly for mid-November.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The Weatherbell winter forecast makes no sense.  Some of the analogs they are using from Nino seasons.  Is anyone shocked they are going for a cold east and warm west? 

BTW current Nino 3.4 anoms are still around -1.0.

Higher revenue potential from east coast weather subscriptions.  Having said that I have seen them go with a cold west winter forecast and it’s not like the last few months followed the La Niña script some people were expecting. 

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Higher revenue potential from east coast weather subscriptions.  Having said that I have seen them go with a cold west winter forecast and it’s not like the last few months followed the La Niña script some people were expecting. 

Some of the warning signs are there for a pretty big winter in these parts though.  Time will tell.

[snow_wizard]

BLI is just killing it this month.  Month to date average 39.3 with yet another freeze this morning.  Already at 10 for the month with an average min right at 32.

[Doinko]

Looks like Hillsboro got down to 26 this morning.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12Z ECMWF looks like it wants to break down the ridge sooner than past runs.

[Guest administrator]

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Higher revenue potential from east coast weather subscriptions.  Having said that I have seen them go with a cold west winter forecast and it’s not like the last few months followed the La Niña script some people were expecting. 

I totally agree with you that we’ll probably not see a single high below freezing for a metro metro area from Vancouver to Medford. I think everyone should show you some respect for the first person on the forum to call for a mild and tepid season. Hats off to you comrade!

[Phishy Wx]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Higher revenue potential from east coast weather subscriptions.  Having said that I have seen them go with a cold west winter forecast and it’s not like the last few months followed the La Niña script some people were expecting. 

this is why 'for profit' weather forecasting is absolute F'in garbage.  I refuse to pay for weather and Bastardi is rube trash anyway.  Accuweather, TWC, WXBell, all hot garbage

[Doinko]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I've crunched the numbers back to 1980 and SEA came in with the second coldest first third of November since then and 2003 was the coldest.  Looks like they have a real shot at coming in for coldest first half.  The only real competition are 1985, 2000,and 2003.  So back to 1980 the coldest three for coldest first 10 days are.

1. 2003 = 41.6

2. 2022 = 42.5

3. 2017 = 43.6

The coldest 3 for first half are.

2003 = 43.2

1985 = 43.4

2000 = 43.4

I checked 1955 and it came in with 38.2 for the first half.

I plan on looking at everything back to 1950 in the coming days.

 

Wow, that's a lot more impressive than I thought. At PDX it's... 16th.

[Deweydog]

Mild.

[smerfylicious]

These long dry streaks are really starting to grate on me. I mean, its nice that I've had 4 freezes this year already and all, but I need some precip.

Maybe this ridge November will retro into a banger of a December...I can hope at least.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

These long dry streaks are really starting to grate on me. I mean, its nice that I've had 4 freezes this year already and all, but I need some precip.

Maybe this ridge November will retro into a banger of a December...I can hope at least.

its Augtober with chill

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

BLI is just killing it this month.  Month to date average 39.3 with yet another freeze this morning.  Already at 10 for the month with an average min right at 32.

31.5 at YXX. (Average min for the month so far)

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

First time in a little while that we've seen this from the Euro. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

First time in a little while that we've seen this from the Euro. 

Very nice 

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

First time in a little while that we've seen this from the Euro. 

Most of that PNW mountain snow falls on the last 24 hrs of the model run. Those are fairly anemic totals for 10 days in late November. But... it's only November.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

its Augtober with chill

Fake cold

[snow_wizard]

24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

12Z ECMWF looks like it wants to break down the ridge sooner than past runs.

No doubt.  I wonder if there's anything to it.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, administrator said:

I totally agree with you that we’ll probably not see a single high below freezing for a metro metro area from Vancouver to Medford. I think everyone should show you some respect for the first person on the forum to call for a mild and tepid season. Hats off to you comrade!

Sorry I’ll try drinking the coolaid.  “It’s going to be so cold I will be travelling to the mainland across a frozen ocean with my dog sled team.  I’m expecting nothing but frozen precip between now and May.”  
 

I have said many times that I think we will probably see a couple episodes of winter weather this season. Likely front loaded.  But dismissing everything that doesn’t point to a cold west doesn’t actually make it cold here.  Right now it feels like it could be kind of a coolish dryish winter. 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

31.5 at YXX. (Average min for the month so far)

Downright chilly.  Not sure why people keep dissing this cold snap.  Good chance SEA will end with their coldest first half of November in decades.

[Gradient Keeper]

9 hours ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It will be quite interesting to see if 12z runs later this morning back up this possibility with some agreement. C'MON!!!!

12z GFS in 5 hour 31 minutes

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 41 minutes

 

Nope! lol. Maybe the EPS was the outlier for a change.

38.7 with kind of a foggy/haze with strengthening inversions. Low temp: 25.3! COLD

 

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Downright chilly.  Not sure why people keep dissing this cold snap.  Good chance SEA will end with their coldest first half of November in decades.

The mean is fairly impressive but we’ve seen fairly similar and even colder min/maxes in recent years. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Fake cold

It's actually not.  We have had below normal 850s for most of the month.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

The mean is fairly impressive but we’ve seen fairly similar and even colder min/maxes in recent years. 

Most places had some double digit minus departures during that really cold trough.  No doubt the sustained nature of this cool period has been the bigger story though.

[Doinko]

31 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

These long dry streaks are really starting to grate on me. I mean, its nice that I've had 4 freezes this year already and all, but I need some precip.

Maybe this ridge November will retro into a banger of a December...I can hope at least.

Thankfully we had a good soaking going into this, looks like I had over 7" of rain since the pattern chance. I think we can get some wet weather in the second half of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE running -5f month to date. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Most places had some double digit minus departures during that really cold trough.  No doubt the sustained nature of this cool period has been the bigger story though.

At the end of the day though it’s not really all that interesting to most people because this is typical dry weather in the winter time here that you see every year December-February …just it being in early November makes it statistically interesting. Overall it’s not a very interesting pattern to most people though. I’d much rather have some rain and get some cold anomalies later on. 

[Doinko]

Tomorrow looks windy, WRF-GFS is showing some 35mph gusts

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE running -5f month to date. 

Did you receive any more snow after the 7.3" in your signature?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Fake cold

Places in North Central Washington have been below zero.  Not fake.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Did you receive any more snow after the 7.3" in your signature?

Yeah we had another 3.5”.

[snow_wizard]

We should all move to the Tolt Reservoir.  3F with winds gusting to 162 this morning! 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah we had another 3.5”.

That is flat out insane.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Places in North Central Washington have been below zero.  Not fake.  

No doubt that area has had an historic start to the winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Tomorrow looks windy, WRF-GFS is showing some 35mph gusts

Too bad that wind will probably warm things up compared to today.