November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Chewbacca Defense]

Got down to 29 last night with a very heavy frost this morning.  Beautiful day here yesterday.

My son wrecked his new car yesterday (he was at fault, and by his own admission made a total bonehead rookie mistake) so he is back to driving his 22 year old, 300k mile Subaru to work.  His new car defrosted the windshield really fast, especially compared to the old one, so one more way he is "paying the price" for his lapse in judgement with the heavy frost.

He was not hurt, and the car should be fixable with front quarter panel and bumper damage.  Afterwards he said "thanks for being cool about this" and I chucked and said "I'm being cool about it because its not on my dime" 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

looks like a wet and mild lead up to the turkey holiday break.  gross

 

wasted cold weather on dry, boring augtober like ridgyness, now rain/slop is coming

 

lol par for the course.  Cya in December

This is mostly how we get cold weather this time of year. 

-5.4 departure on the month now at SLE, waiting to see if they can pull off a negative departure will be like a Republican candidate watching their lead slip away as the mail in votes are counted. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got down to 29 last night with a very heavy frost this morning.  Beautiful day here yesterday.

My son wrecked his new car yesterday (he was at fault, and by his own admission made a total bonehead rookie mistake) so he is back to driving his 22 year old, 300k mile Subaru to work.  His new car defrosted the windshield really fast, especially compared to the old one, so one more way he is "paying the price" for his lapse in judgement with the heavy frost.

He was not hurt, and the car should be fixable with front quarter panel and bumper damage.  Afterwards he said "thanks for being cool about this" and I chucked and said "I'm being cool about it because its not on my dime" 

The School of Hard Knocks, where the pedagogy is without peer but the tuition is exorbitant.

[MWG]

Frosty morning around here and of course fog. Air stagnation all week 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Frosty morning around here and of course fog. Air stagnation all week 

Looks like Medford is running a -4.6 departure through yesterday.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Got down to 29 last night with a very heavy frost this morning.  Beautiful day here yesterday.

My son wrecked his new car yesterday (he was at fault, and by his own admission made a total bonehead rookie mistake) so he is back to driving his 22 year old, 300k mile Subaru to work.  His new car defrosted the windshield really fast, especially compared to the old one, so one more way he is "paying the price" for his lapse in judgement with the heavy frost.

He was not hurt, and the car should be fixable with front quarter panel and bumper damage.  Afterwards he said "thanks for being cool about this" and I chucked and said "I'm being cool about it because its not on my dime" 

Yikes glad he’s ok and car is fixable. Good lesson to learn early and with no personal injuries (or extreme financial loss ). I was in a minor accident when I was 17 and always thought that turned me into a better (aka aware) driver a lot faster than years of getting away with boneheaded moves would have. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Burns, OR running a -10 departure on the month so far. Lakeview, OR hit -2 this morning. 

Coldest low I found this morning so far was -5 at Cabin Lake in the Fort Rock Valley. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is mostly how we get cold weather this time of year. 

-5.4 departure on the month now at SLE, waiting to see if they can pull off a negative departure will be like a Republican candidate watching their lead slip away as the mail in votes are counted. 

Looks like we will be in a generally chilly pattern through about the 20th-21st. After that I haven’t gotten quite a read on what the patterns’s going to do aside from turn more active, but I’m not getting total torch vibes either. Although obviously if it turns more active we are going to lose the really cold nights.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like we will be in a generally chilly pattern through about the 20th-21st. After that I haven’t gotten quite a read on what the patterns’s going to do aside from turn more active, but I’m not getting total torch vibes either. Although obviously if it turns more active we are going to lose the really cold nights.

Good analysis, Unless we string together some massive torching it will likely go down as a cool to coolish month. Some of the operational runs have shown a fairly cool pattern to close the month. Would be nice to start building up that snow pack after a nice start. In terms of reading the tea leaves, who knows obviously, but I'm not seeing any major red flags right now for the rest of winter. 

Looking at the CFS monthlies, December looks slightly above average. January is looking cold on there right now, February close to average, and then March and April are coming in cold on the latest CFS monthlies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the CFS December is looking wet, with the wettest anomalies in Northern California. February is showing near average, with January, March, and April coming in wet. Starting in May things dry out and warm up per usual. 

[RentonHill]

We were on a family ski trip to sun river sometime in the early 90s and on our way up to Bachelor and we’re making the left turn at the T onto the 4 lane wide part (I think they changed it some years afterward so you don’t have to cross and merge immediately) and we ended up spinning all the way around into oncoming lanes and rammed into the embankment. Thankfully not getting smashed as we passed through the other lanes. In 2006 I was driving with my mom across snoqualmie with horse trailer that was full plus some dogs and we skidded off the freeway around exit 78 and went into the ditch when it was absolutely dumping. One of those moments where you go - hey there’s a horse trailer coming around to pass us? Oh no that’s ours uh oh - moments. We were shook up but all animals were unharmed. 

[TT-SEA]

Had a couple thunderstorms here yesterday... absolutely dumped rain for about 10 minutes both times and then it was sunny and warm again 5 minutes later like nothing happened.     They cleared the pool area both times but only for a few minutes.    Luckily they did not have to clear the pool bar area.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

52 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 29.8.

Frosty.

Sqring. Welcome fall!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid-range GFS sucks. 

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Mid-range GFS sucks. 

November rain is only a week away now!

[Randyc321]

11 hours ago, Deweydog said:

January begins in a smidge over 48 days.

Do you think the timing will speedup as we get closer?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

November rain is only a week away now!

I'd like to see a more consolidated pattern overall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is just ugly. Thank God it's a map for November 27th, not December 27th.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The School of Hard Knocks, where the pedagogy is without peer but the tuition is exorbitant.

Just got even worse news....his car may not get fixed before February/March!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just got even worse news....his car may not get fixed before February/March!

My Dad was in an accident a couple of months ago which damaged the side panel of his car (Truck changed lanes into him.). Fortunately the car is still safely drivable, but he said he would not be able to get it fixed until December at the earliest. Prior to the pandemic, we lived in a world of plenty, where you could address needs essentially on demand, we no longer live in such a world. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My Dad was in an accident a couple of months ago which damaged the side panel of his car (Truck changed lanes into him.). Fortunately the car is still safely drivable, but he said he would not be able to get it fixed until December at the earliest. Prior to the pandemic, we lived in a world of plenty, where you could address needs essentially on demand, we no longer live in such a world. 

Sad... but very true.

[Randyc321]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My Dad was in an accident a couple of months ago which damaged the side panel of his car (Truck changed lanes into him.). Fortunately the car is still safely drivable, but he said he would not be able to get it fixed until December at the earliest. Prior to the pandemic, we lived in a world of plenty, where you could address needs essentially on demand, we no longer live in such a world. 

Pretty true overall, but autobody repair has been super long wait times for a few years.  I don't know how they expect to have something so expensive as a vehicle out of commission for months.

 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My Dad was in an accident a couple of months ago which damaged the side panel of his car (Truck changed lanes into him.). Fortunately the car is still safely drivable, but he said he would not be able to get it fixed until December at the earliest. Prior to the pandemic, we lived in a world of plenty, where you could address needs essentially on demand, we no longer live in such a world. 

Yeah, I asked one of the shops what was going on (I was nice about it....genuine curiosity).  He said it started with the global supply chain shortage, add to that a major jump in accidents once everyone started driving again.  He said the supply chain situation is much better but still higher number of accidents compared to pre-pandemic plus the same labor shortage every industry segment is feeling.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Yeah, I asked one of the shops what was going on (I was nice about it....genuine curiosity).  He said it started with the global supply chain shortage, add to that a major jump in accidents once everyone started driving again.  He said the supply chain situation is much better but still higher number of accidents compared to pre-pandemic plus the same labor shortage every industry segment is feeling.

 

 

Some of the driving I have seen on an everyday basis is scary. 

[Phishy Wx]

38 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

November rain is only a week away now!

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the driving I have seen on an everyday basis is scary. 

The world is truly going to hell in a hand basket Andrew 

[jakerepp]

Hey everyone! I'm down in AZ now. Was a beautiful but long drive down.

Here are some highlights.

 

[MWG]

Don’t know about the rest of the PNW but here feels like more mid October with the foliage color. It doesn’t look like mid November. Temps otherwise have looked more like late November.  
Fog doesn’t want to make up it’s mind keeps coming and going. 

[Dave]

The fog has broken. 38 degrees with crystal clear skies.

[Chewbacca Defense]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of the driving I have seen on an everyday basis is scary. 

Bellingham has always been sketchy....there is a disproportionately large number of self-appointed speed enforcers here.

There is also a lot of people who do not grasp the concept that the freeway on-ramp is intended to get up to freeway speed by the time you get to the end.  I am regularly behind people who are still doing 35-40mph at the end of the on-ramp.  I've even had people going that slow then STOP at the end of the on-ramp, meanwhile freeway traffic is zipping along at anywhere between 55 and 70.  Add to that the fact that the freeway is shoehorned in so the on/off ramps suck.

Bellingham has always been a popular town for people who work remotely, and it exploded during the pandemic.  So, we now have a bunch of big city folks (lots of Californians) and their aggressive driving trying to co-exist with the native population.

I have pretty much mastered the technique of laying back a little bit then giving my car the beans about 2/3 down the ramp and zip around the reluctant mergers.  I leave enough room so that if there is no spot for me to merge, I can safely slow down and risk my life trying to merge at 40mph along with the fool in front of me. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Bellingham has always been sketchy....there is a disproportionately large number of self-appointed speed enforcers here.

There is also a lot of people who do not grasp the concept that the freeway on-ramp is intended to get up to freeway speed by the time you get to the end.  I am regularly behind people who are still doing 35-40mph at the end of the on-ramp.  I've even had people going that slow then STOP at the end of the on-ramp, meanwhile freeway traffic is zipping along at anywhere between 55 and 70.  Add to that the fact that the freeway is shoehorned in so the on/off ramps suck.

Bellingham has always been a popular town for people who work remotely, and it exploded during the pandemic.  So, we now have a bunch of big city folks (lots of Californians) and their aggressive driving trying to co-exist with the native population.

I have pretty much mastered the technique of laying back a little bit then giving my car the beans about 2/3 down the ramp and zip around the reluctant mergers.  I leave enough room so that if there is no spot for me to merge, I can safely slow down and risk my life trying to merge at 40mph along with the fool in front of me. 

 

You've described the driving scene in Spokane for similar reasons (CA relo's + natives + bumpkins who come over from Idaho)

[Cascadia_Wx]

The drivers definitely suck here the most!1!1!1 And it’s everyone from (x) neighboring states, not natives. Oh and it seems way worse than it’s ever been. Back in my day people knew how to drive. Also for some reason a story about me driving like an absolute idiot when I was younger. But we did it with style back then  

Did I get everything?

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is just ugly. Thank God it's a map for November 27th, not December 27th.

Really hoping whatever SW flow torching shows up is transient. Can be a very difficult pattern to escape.

[ShawniganLake]

Driving report from Shawnigan lake this morning. Make sure you know your vehicle height before hitting the underpasses.  Missed it by just a little.  

 

[Winterdog]

Currently 30 after a low of 25.

[MWG]

My issue of people driving down here is that they go 5 to 10 under the speed limit. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

22 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Bellingham has always been sketchy....there is a disproportionately large number of self-appointed speed enforcers here.

There is also a lot of people who do not grasp the concept that the freeway on-ramp is intended to get up to freeway speed by the time you get to the end.  I am regularly behind people who are still doing 35-40mph at the end of the on-ramp.  I've even had people going that slow then STOP at the end of the on-ramp, meanwhile freeway traffic is zipping along at anywhere between 55 and 70.  Add to that the fact that the freeway is shoehorned in so the on/off ramps suck.

Bellingham has always been a popular town for people who work remotely, and it exploded during the pandemic.  So, we now have a bunch of big city folks (lots of Californians) and their aggressive driving trying to co-exist with the native population.

I have pretty much mastered the technique of laying back a little bit then giving my car the beans about 2/3 down the ramp and zip around the reluctant mergers.  I leave enough room so that if there is no spot for me to merge, I can safely slow down and risk my life trying to merge at 40mph along with the fool in front of me. 

 

Ah, the famous “Seattle merge,” maybe I should rename it the “Washington merge.” It is the responsibility of freeway traffic to slow down to posted ramp speed and yield.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Driving report from Shawnigan lake this morning. Make sure you know your vehicle height before hitting the underpasses.  Missed it by just a little.  

 

I remember in Seattle one year a charter bus driver sheared off the entire top of his bus. His excuse was that it ought not to be considered his fault because the underpass was not listed on his GPS. Law enforcement did not buy it.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I remember in Seattle one year a charter bus driver sheared off the entire top of his bus. His excuse was that it ought not to be considered his fault because the underpass was not listed on his GPS. Law enforcement did not buy it.

This underpass in shawnigan has been hit many times.  First time I’ve seen the bridge knocked off though.  At least That rail line isn’t in use currently.   Driver isn’t likely to have a good excuse as there are warning lights on a sensor that gets activated when your vehicle is over height. 

[FroYoBro]

East wind broke through here about an hour ago. A quick jump upwards for the temperature while the dp is now heading down.