November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Omegaraptor]

South Sound doing well. 27 at OLYMPIA.

CVO down to 37.

[Phishy Wx]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Noooo... and I don't think that is even being considered.   I think the options are DST all the time or keep switching the clocks.

No its stay standard all the time. the switch back to standard from DST basically gives everyone jet lag for no reason and can cause health issues in some people.  just stay standard all year like it was before DST was created.  It's no longer needed, we aren't an agrarian society anymore

[Deweydog]

42 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Also glad it’s happening now and not during prime time! (Late November thru late February) 

January begins in a smidge over 48 days.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

South Sound doing well. 27 at OLYMPIA.

CVO down to 37.

41 here. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Well I am exhausted and heading off. Have a good night all.

00z ECMWF in 16 minutes

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well I am exhausted and heading off. Have a good night all.

00z ECMWF in 16 minutes

No Night Shift?!

[ShawniganLake]

Brief clearing this afternoon here. Cloudy and 36F now

[Dave]

The NWS is calling for a low of 28 here tonight. There's about a zero percent chance that is happening. 38 degrees still with fog. DP of 37. No signs of clearing. It is oddly quiet outside though. Kind of nice.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

47 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Well I am exhausted and heading off. Have a good night all.

00z ECMWF in 16 minutes

I'll try to stay up for night shift. Get some sleep Rob.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 31 here.  Perfect conditions for max cooling here tonight with a very weak offshore gradient (not enough to cause any wind, but enough for a light drift).

[Cold Snap]

5 hours ago, Doinko said:

I don't have my own station but going by the nearest one to me this was our coldest day. We did have a colder high last Monday though with 43. My area normally isn't that great with radiational cooling most of the time though. Hillsboro had a 49/25 day last week. 

Yeah we've been kind of unlucky in the Portland area recently but I guess we're just making up for Feb 2014 with our 23/19 day and Jan 2017 when PDX dropped to 11 and Hillsboro dropped to 3.

Yeah I go off the nearest station as well. My area usually does good with radiational cooling as long as it’s clear. You guys down there did so good during Feb 2014 and Jan 2017 those blasts had some amazing gorge outflow and were able to get the Portland area really chilly. I hadn’t recorded a sub 25 high since November 2010 until last December. I feel like the blast last December was payback for Seattle not seeing any sub freezing highs for 7 straight years from Feb 2014 until Feb 2021.

[snow_wizard]

The models are showing one last hoorah for the chilly weather at the end of the week once things settle down following the clipper that goes just to the east of us.

[snow_wizard]

17 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Yeah I go off the nearest station as well. My area usually does good with radiational cooling as long as it’s clear. You guys down there did so good during Feb 2014 and Jan 2017 those blasts had some amazing gorge outflow and were able to get the Portland area really chilly. I hadn’t recorded a sub 25 high since November 2010 until last December. I feel like the blast last December was payback for Seattle not seeing any sub freezing highs for 7 straight years from Feb 2014 until Feb 2021.

Not true.  We had sub freezing highs a number of times in that time frame.  Not sure about Seattle proper, but outlying areas certainly did.  Feb 2019 was epic even if SEA didn't actually have a freezing max.

We have made up for getting owned by NW OR in 2014 and 2017 at least two times over since then.

[ShawniganLake]

OT. But that looks like potentially an insane lake effect event for places like Buffalo later this week.  Bitter arctic air, warm lakes and winds aligned well for an extended period of time. 

[Dave]

Nice! Someone put in a weather station only a block and a half away from my location. Previously, the closest one was about 2/3 of a mile away.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOREUGEN393

[snow_wizard]

I'm still thinking once the pattern breaks down it won't be a long wait for an Aleutian and / or GOA block to form.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

Nice! Someone put in a weather station only a block and a half away from my location. Previously, the closest one was about 2/3 of a mile away.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KOREUGEN393

How on Earth can you not have your own station....or at least a good thermometer?

[SouthHillFrosty]

OT but

 

 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

How on Earth can you not have your own station....or at least a good thermometer?

I do have a decent thermometer. I haven't bothered with a full weather station due to no decent spots to mount one. There's a huge amount of old, giant trees around my property. Wind data would be pretty useless.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

OT but

 

 

Translation....somebody wanted to have some fun using dynamite.  

Hard to imagine a blubber shower.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

47/32 on the day. Currently 33. I started getting Christmas out today! 

Save it for prime time.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Noooo... and I don't think that is even being considered.   I think the options are DST all the time or keep switching the clocks.

The third option has always existed. States like AZ or Hawaii (previously Indiana) have opted to skip DST all together. To be on DST year round requires an act of Congress. This law that has thankfully stalled does not take away the right of states to go on year round standard time or eliminate those who already are on it.

[Skagit Weather]

49 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

OT. But that looks like potentially an insane lake effect event for places like Buffalo later this week.  Bitter arctic air, warm lakes and winds aligned well for an extended period of time. 

Makes me think of 2014: https://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415_stormb.html

I always thought it would be crazy to experience one of those storms, although I guess you could probably go up into the Cascades during a stormy period and get close.

https://youtu.be/gee6je0YX1U

[Frontal Snowsquall]

53 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm still thinking once the pattern breaks down it won't be a long wait for an Aleutian and / or GOA block to form.

After this cold snap, it looks like we are headed for a wetter and milder pattern the latter part of November. I do think we'll get another good chance of an Arctic Blast sometime in December but I'm thinking it holds off until mid-late December. January though is still the month I'm really bullish on for a big time Arctic outbreak here in the PNW.

[Nov1985]

00Z ECMWF still shows things getting breezy in the NW on Thanksgiving eve. Should be something to watch this week. That gives some amusement while we wait for these 850Ts to come back around. Second image is tonight's 00Z EC 850Ts for the second half of the run.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

12 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

00Z ECMWF still shows things getting breezy in the NW on Thanksgiving eve. Should be something to watch this week. That gives some amusement while we wait for these 850Ts to come back around. Second image is tonight's 00Z EC 850Ts for the second half of the run.

 

Tonight's ECMWF seemed to very reluctant to get rid of the ridge.  But the ensembles are more bullish on a pattern change.  It's not very often where the operational ECMWF is at odds with its ensembles. 

I posted this earlier, but here is what the NWS Spokane said earlier today:

All deterministic guidance looks on the warm side during this period being above the 75% grand ensemble. Wont  discard this solution given the stubbornness of our   recent ridges.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Nov1985]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Tonight's ECMWF seemed to very reluctant to get rid of the ridge.  But the ensembles are more bullish on a pattern change.  It's not very often where the operational ECMWF is at odds with its ensembles. 

I posted this earlier, but here is what the NWS Spokane said earlier today:

All deterministic guidance looks on the warm side during this period being above the 75% grand ensemble. Wont  discard this solution given the stubbornness of our   recent ridges.

The EPS mean still isn't proposing anything cool-ish before 11/29 though. Thus my warm period fallback to watching for exciting wind! 

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Not true.  We had sub freezing highs a number of times in that time frame.  Not sure about Seattle proper, but outlying areas certainly did.  Feb 2019 was epic even if SEA didn't actually have a freezing max.

We have made up for getting owned by NW OR in 2014 and 2017 at least two times over since then.

Yeah now that I look back at Feb 2019 even though KSEA didn’t record a subfreezing high I still managed 3 out of that month. That is the best month I’ve witnessed snow wise in my entire life here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Overnight GFS

[The Blob]

Much colder at home than work, 40 there 33 here.

[Everleigh]

Dropped to 25.9* in the night, back up to 30.6* this morning though. 

I am really enjoying these cold, cold nights. I get up and take the dogs out super early and it's frosty and crunchy. There is the smell of smoke in the air, but it's not the icky summer smoke. It's the smoke from fireplaces, lit to keep people's homes warm. It's a smell of fall and coziness, and I just love it.

[FroYoBro]

Not as cold as yesterday, but did hit freezing again! Sitting at 32 degrees right now. 

[Doinko]

PDX dropped to 30!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

29.3˚F.

[Doinko]

Only down to 38 here surprisingly, 10 degrees colder just around by 5 miles away at Hillsboro

[Meatyorologist]

30F.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 again this morning. 11th freeze of the month. Probably going to hang onto some remnants of snow until it rains again. 

[Phishy Wx]

looks like a wet and mild lead up to the turkey holiday break.  gross

 

wasted cold weather on dry, boring augtober like ridgyness, now rain/slop is coming

 

lol par for the course.  Cya in December

[MossMan]

Currently 29.8.

Frosty.

[Cascadia_Wx]

A frosty low of 29 here this morning. Glad the east wind held off enough to allow for another cold night.