November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We should all move to the Tolt Reservoir.  3F with winds gusting to 162 this morning! 

You will be frozen before you can even say "Jeez that is cold outside!"

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt that area has had an historic start to the winter.

Omak's second coldest first 12 days of November so far, after 1945 and coldest on record in Winthrop

[snow_wizard]

Geeze....Blewett Pass has already had 34 inches of snow this season.  That is nuts for them.  Many years they don't get snow that stays until Thanksgiving or so.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

Omak's second coldest first 12 days of November so far, after 1945 and coldest on record in Winthrop

Nice bounce back from them hitting low to mid 70s on 12/1 last year.

[Iceresistance]

PNA is expected to turn negative, then comes the AO and NAO becoming negative as well later this month! Does anyone what to freeze turkeys outside?

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt that area has had an historic start to the winter.

North central and northeast WA are just on a different level from the rest of the region for winter weather. They’re pretty much just a southern extension of the BC interior.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

At the end of the day though it’s not really all that interesting to most people because this is typical dry weather in the winter time here that you see every year December-February …just it being in early November makes it statistically interesting. Overall it’s not a very interesting pattern to most people though. I’d much rather have some rain and get some cold anomalies later on. 

This type of pattern at this particular time of year often leads to really good stuff later in the winter.  That and my interest in cold statistics probably makes me get carried away a bit.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

PNA is expected to turn negative, then comes the AO and NAO becoming negative as well later this month! Does anyone what to freeze turkeys outside?

I'm thinking there will be a quick break down of the pattern and then the blocking will quickly pop up again.  Probably in a really good spot for big time cold over much of the nation (starting in the West).

[Iceresistance]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking there will be a quick break down of the pattern and then the blocking will quickly pop up again.  Probably in a really good spot for big time cold over much of the nation.

BenNollWeather said that there are going to be cold shots one after another for several days for most of the CONUS.

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking there will be a quick break down of the pattern and then the blocking will quickly pop up again.  Probably in a really good spot for big time cold over much of the nation (starting in the West).

I'm hoping for some more gorge-oriented events rather than Fraser River ones and for the lows to head farther south. My last big snowstorm was 2017. 2021 was a big storm but only 4.5" of snow and a lot of sleet/ice since I was just <10 miles too far south.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

North central and northeast WA are just on a different level from the rest of the region for winter weather. They’re pretty much just a southern extension of the BC interior.

Burns had a few lows around zero earlier last week. The high deserts and plateaus of SE Oregon can get just as cold pretty regularly. In fact Seneca, Oregon’s all time record low of -54F beats Winthrop’s by six degrees.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice bounce back from them hitting low to mid 70s on 12/1 last year.

Nobody can say we aren't seeing some pretty crazy extremes the last couple of years.  As I've mentioned before the 1930s were like this and we had every possible extreme represented.  Can't wait to see where the next few years go.  Just this winter for that matter.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Burns had a few lows around zero earlier last week. The high deserts and plateaus of SE Oregon can get just as cold pretty regularly. In fact Seneca, Oregon’s all time record low of -54F beats Winthrop’s by six degrees.

The big difference with North Central WA and NE WA is the average max temps though.  Much lower in the winter than even the southern half of WA on the east side.  OR kills it for extreme mins though.

[Omegaraptor]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Burns had a few lows around zero earlier last week. The high deserts and plateaus of SE Oregon can get just as cold pretty regularly. In fact Seneca, Oregon’s all time record low of -54F beats Winthrop’s by six degrees.

Correct but elevation plays a big part in that. Winthrop is at just 1700’. If there was a 4-5k Great Basin-like high plateau in northeastern WA you can only imagine how cold it’d get.

[Cold Snap]

Got down to 29 this morning. Looks like a lot more people got below freezing and into the 20s. Glad more people got in on the fun this morning.

[snow_wizard]

55 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Correct but elevation plays a big part in that. Winthrop is at just 1700’. If there was a 4-5k Great Basin-like high plateau in northeastern WA you can only imagine how cold it’d get.

I think you're right about the extreme northern part of WA being more like an extension of BC climate.  You can even see that in Whatcom County on the West Side.  Deep valleys go into the BC interior and allow that cold air to flood in.

[snow_wizard]

47 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Got down to 29 this morning. Looks like a lot more people got below freezing and into the 20s. Glad more people got in on the fun this morning.

Tonight could be the best one.  Going to be clear all night with weak offshore gradient.

Today I'm running about a degree lower than yesterday on my afternoon temps.  Probably end up with 47/28.  Long streak of sub 50 highs now.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

These long dry streaks are really starting to grate on me. I mean, its nice that I've had 4 freezes this year already and all, but I need some precip.

Maybe this ridge November will retro into a banger of a December...I can hope at least.

It was supposed to be a no ridge November 

[Cold Snap]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tonight could be the best one.  Going to be clear all night with weak offshore gradient.

Today I'm running about a degree lower than yesterday on my afternoon temps.  Probably end up with 47/28.  Long streak of sub 50 highs now.

I have yet to see a high of 50 since we went into this cold snap but it looks like most places will have a good shot on Tuesday and Wednesday. I might even hit 50 today at this rate already up to 48.

[Doinko]

Only 42 at PDX so far

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Only 42 at PDX so far

Cold air is really starting to build up east of the Cascades.  The longer these things go on the easier it is for PDX to be cold.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

It was supposed to be a no ridge November 

So far this month has been a good mix.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just noticed the difference between what will be the new GFS vs. the current GFS on the 12z.  I have no idea if there are normally large differences between these 2.

Current GFS, 12Z hour 252

 

The new GFS as of the end of the month, same hour and also 12z run:

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

Sort of feels like an old school kind of November. Loving these cold mornings and vibrant, sunny afternoons. The real kicker though is that winterlike bite to the air that lasts all day, I really dig that.

Inversions are great because in today's new climate they're the only reliable way to put up significant cold anomalies without much effort.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

North central and northeast WA are just on a different level from the rest of the region for winter weather. They’re pretty much just a southern extension of the BC interior.

Speaking of the BC interior, just got back from a weekend trip to Boston Bar, where it was cold and dry. Low 20’s F at night, low 30’s in the day. Snow just a bit higher up in the mountains, but none in town, which is just as well because if there was the roads would have been an icy mess.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fraser River, Boston Bar, BC. Temperature was about 23˚F.

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Quote

…our #machinelearning model is showing a return to #colder weather in the Eastern US…

When is it ever NOT forecasting that… LOL.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS is going according to my plan. 

[FroYoBro]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS is going according to my plan. 

Thank you weather Jesus.

[The Cats Meow]

Stunning day today.  50 at my back door.  Frosty start to the day.  I have had to scrape ice three times this last week!  Wow!  Three times!

This just feels like a special winter in the making.  So much shivers.  Many many shivers.

[The Cats Meow]

I know this isn't really weather related but does anyone else have a hard time adjusting to daylight savings?  It seems like this year I just can't get my sleeps right.

Hopefully someday we can stop this silly practice.

[TacomaWx]

47/34 today…didn’t get below freezing last night maybe tonight. Just 1 freeze so far this month with a low of 32. 

[FroYoBro]

Looks like 47/30 at pdx. Pretty chilly day!

[Doinko]

Seems like we had a 48/28 day today, that's not bad at all

[Cold Snap]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Seems like we had a 48/28 day today, that's not bad at all

Is this your coldest day from this so far? My coldest day from this was last Wednesday when I pulled off 42/25 for that day. I feel like the Portland area has been getting so screwed over when it comes to cold snaps recently.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting tidbit from the Spokane NWS AFD, taking about Tuesday thru Sunday.  

All deterministic guidance 
looks on the warm side during this. period being above the 75% grand. ensemble. Wont discard this solution. given the stubbornness of our 
recent ridges. /Butler 
 

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[Anti Marine Layer]

Foggy in Eugene. Radiation fog sounds more creepy than advection fog.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting tidbit from the Spokane NWS AFD, taking about Tuesday thru Sunday.   Sorry for the blue highlights, don't know why it's doing that.

All deterministic guidance  looks on the warm side during this  period being above the 75% grand  ensemble. Wont discard.   this solution given the stubbornness of our  recent ridges.
 

You are pasting as rich text instead of plain text. When you do that, you not only paste the characters, but also all the other properties it contained at its source: font, size, color, background, ect.

When you paste text in the text editor box here, there should be a grey pop-up offering the option to paste as plain text. That will filter out those other source properties and replace them with the default settings for the text box editor; aka what you normally see when typing a comment here.

hope that helps

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Is this your coldest day from this so far? My coldest day from this was last Wednesday when I pulled off 42/25 for that day. I feel like the Portland area has been getting so screwed over when it comes to cold snaps recently.

I don't have my own station but going by the nearest one to me this was our coldest day. We did have a colder high last Monday though with 43. My area normally isn't that great with radiational cooling most of the time though. Hillsboro had a 49/25 day last week. 

Yeah we've been kind of unlucky in the Portland area recently but I guess we're just making up for Feb 2014 with our 23/19 day and Jan 2017 when PDX dropped to 11 and Hillsboro dropped to 3.