November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS has Arctic air moving into BC again later in the run.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting tidbit from the Spokane NWS AFD, taking about Tuesday thru Sunday.  

All deterministic guidance 
looks on the warm side during this. period being above the 75% grand. ensemble. Wont discard this solution. given the stubbornness of our 
recent ridges. /Butler 
 

 

Warm at the 500mb and 850mb levels means nothing for the surface though.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I don't have my own station but going by the nearest one to me this was our coldest day. We did have a colder high last Monday though with 43. My area normally isn't that great with radiational cooling most of the time though. Hillsboro had a 49/25 day last week. 

Yeah we've been kind of unlucky in the Portland area recently but I guess we're just making up for Feb 2014 with our 23/19 day and Jan 2017 when PDX dropped to 11 and Hillsboro dropped to 3.

I would hope that 2014 and 2017 would have been made up for by now.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I would hope that 2014 and 2017 would have been made up for by now.

PDX itself did good in Feb 2021 with 10.1" of snow but we just had an annoying mix of snow/sleet/ice. At least we had three subfreezing highs in February and one in December

[T-Town]

Sunset. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Sunset. 

Purdy!  This has been an incredible year for sunsets.

[snow_wizard]

Hmmmm....

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Warm at the 500mb and 850mb levels means nothing for the surface though.

They were talking about the surface though. They have mentioned the models and the NBM have been too warm with forecasts.  Just an observation that the operational models have been forecasting warmer than the ensembles. 

[FroYoBro]

Seems like clouds are clearing out right as the sun is setting. Good timing today to keep the temperature down. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmmm....

Maybe some rain and wind?   That would be a nice change.

Anecdotally... I spent part of the afternoon at the pool bar with some really fun people from upstate NY watching the Bills-Vikings game.  I had a Seahawks t-shirt on and the conversation turned to what Seattle is like... and I honestly could not break their notion that it rains almost every day of the year.    Geeky weather stats don't make a good argument.  They were absolutely convinced and I was not changing their mind!   

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Seems like clouds are clearing out right as the sun is setting. Good timing today to keep the temperature down. 

I find it interesting it's been more clear up here than down there.  Not typical for November at all.

[Dave]

Looks like a 35 - 41 spread today in Eugene. Totally boring and depressing. Fog never broke once. It was in the 30's almost the entire day. Good for solid negative departures which I absolutely could not care less about unless it is from real cold.

[Dave]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe some rain and wind?   That would be a nice change.

Anecdotally... I spent part of the afternoon at the pool bar with some really fun people from upstate NY watching the Bills-Vikings game.  I had a Seahawks t-shirt on and the conversation turned to what Seattle is like... and I honestly could not break their notion that it rains almost every day of the year.    Geeky weather stats don't make a good argument.  They were absolutely convinced and I was not changing their mind!   

These are the same people that always say that *insert random southern city here* is always 95 degrees with 95% humidity all summer long, no matter how hard you try to explain that those conditions have never been recorded anywhere on earth.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Just noticed the difference between what will be the new GFS vs. the current GFS on the 12z.  I have no idea if there are normally large differences between these 2.

Current GFS, 12Z hour 252

 

The new GFS as of the end of the month, same hour and also 12z run:

 

 

The new GFS resembles the ensemble mean quite a bit.

00z GFS in 2 hour 16 minutes

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

These are the same people that always say that *insert random southern city here* is always 95 degrees with 95% humidity all summer long, no matter how hard you try to explain that those conditions have never been recorded anywhere on earth.

But it is still hot and humid in the south every summer.    They imagine Seattle being rainy every day of the year.    That is not even half true!

[Cascadia_Wx]

44/28 spread here today. Easily the coldest day of the fall so far. Had some lingering morning fog then some high clouds and a very nice sunset. Love these calm, chilly days. East wind should be back by tomorrow.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

38/32 here today with unbroken fog all day and totally stagnant air. Peak wind speed of zero.

34/48 for the day here, with plenty of sunshine. Your area always does well with the inversions.

[Kayla]

2 hours ago, Hour364Please said:

I know this isn't really weather related but does anyone else have a hard time adjusting to daylight savings?  It seems like this year I just can't get my sleeps right.

Hopefully someday we can stop this silly practice.

You do know that we just switched to Standard Time right? 

I agree, we should stop going to fake time in the Spring and stay on Standard Time year-round!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

You do know that we just switched to Standard Time right? 

I agree, we should stop going to fake time in the Spring and stay on Standard Time year-round!

Noooo... and I don't think that is even being considered.   I think the options are DST all the time or keep switching the clocks.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

40 minutes ago, Dave said:

Looks like a 35 - 41 spread today in Eugene. Totally boring and depressing. Fog never broke once. It was in the 30's almost the entire day. Good for solid negative departures which I absolutely could not care less about unless it is from real cold.

What is it about Eugene, anyhow? Something in the water? The weather always sucks there. If it’s warm, it sucks because its warm. If its cold, it still sucks because it is not “real” cold, it is “just” an inversion..

P.S. Yes it does count, and the more frequent and more pronounced inversions and the negative temperature departures therefrom are an aspect of Eugene’s climate that figures into the long-term norms. Acting as if inversions don’t count for Eugene would be a bit like me acting like Fraser outflow doesn’t count.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What is it about Eugene, anyhow? Something in the water? The weather always sucks there. If it’s warm, it sucks because its warm. If its cold, it still sucks because it is not “real” cold, it is “just” an inversion..

P.S. Yes it does count, and the more frequent and more pronounced inversions and the negative temperature departures therefrom are an aspect of Eugene’s climate that figures into the long-term norms. Acting as if inversions don’t count for Eugene would be a bit like me acting like Fraser outflow doesn’t count.

He didn't say it didn't count... he said he does not care about inversion cold.    

[Dave]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What is it about Eugene, anyhow? Something in the water? The weather always sucks there. If it’s warm, it sucks because its warm. If its cold, it still sucks because it is not “real” cold, it is “just” an inversion..

Lol. I never said that Eugene weather sucks. I like just about all the weather here with the exception of inversions/fog. I even like our routine summer heat waves and dryness.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe some rain and wind?   That would be a nice change.

Anecdotally... I spent part of the afternoon at the pool bar with some really fun people from upstate NY watching the Bills-Vikings game.  I had a Seahawks t-shirt on and the conversation turned to what Seattle is like... and I honestly could not break their notion that it rains almost every day of the year.    Geeky weather stats don't make a good argument.  They were absolutely convinced and I was not changing their mind!   

You should have told them Seattle only had a half inch of rain in 4 months this year.  I think that would have made sense to them.

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

44/28 spread here today. Easily the coldest day of the fall so far. Had some lingering morning fog then some high clouds and a very nice sunset. Love these calm, chilly days. East wind should be back by tomorrow.

That's easily a double digit minus departure.  My month to date average is a pretty ridiculous 39.8 after today.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You should have told them Seattle only had a half inch of rain in 4 months this year.  I think that would have made sense to them.

Ohhhh... I told them about our summer.   They laughed.   Didn't believe me.   

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, Dave said:

Looks like a 35 - 41 spread today in Eugene. Totally boring and depressing. Fog never broke once. It was in the 30's almost the entire day. Good for solid negative departures which I absolutely could not care less about unless it is from real cold.

Yep, real cold at least opens the door to some snow, inversion cold usually does not amount to anything but the negative departures but an approaching storm system will inherently warm things up very quickly.  But ya, like Rubus said the stats are always a factor for long term norms, doesn't mean we have to like it though.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

What is it about Eugene, anyhow? Something in the water? The weather always sucks there. If it’s warm, it sucks because its warm. If its cold, it still sucks because it is not “real” cold, it is “just” an inversion..

P.S. Yes it does count, and the more frequent and more pronounced inversions and the negative temperature departures therefrom are an aspect of Eugene’s climate that figures into the long-term norms. Acting as if inversions don’t count for Eugene would be a bit like me acting like Fraser outflow doesn’t count.

Truth be known there are extreme inversions in the Arctic as well.  I think that counts.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Yep, real cold at least opens the door to some snow, inversion cold usually does not amount to anything but the negative departures but an approaching storm system will inherently warm things up very quickly.  But ya, like Rubus said the stats are always a factor for long term norms, doesn't mean we have to like it though.

Patterns like the current one are great when there is snow on the ground.  With snow the temps would easily be 5 to 10 lower on both the highs and lows.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Ohhhh... I told them about our summer.   They laughed.   Didn't believe me.   

Well you did go on vacation down there to escape our dreary climate so.... kinda tough to take seriously !!

[joelgombiner]

After a warm and quiet start to November, the eastern half of the country will get some winter weather this week. 

 

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Patterns like the current one are great when there is snow on the ground.  With snow the temps would easily be 5 to 10 lower on both the highs and lows.

But.... there is no snow.  So 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ohhhh... I told them about our summer.   They laughed.   Didn't believe me.   

Just tell them you’re sorry you tried to lie to them, rains all the time, it’s awful, you’ll hate it, stay away, don’t even think of moving here.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Patterns like the current one are great when there is snow on the ground.  With snow the temps would easily be 5 to 10 lower on both the highs and lows.

That happened in January 2017 and it was amazing. 13" of snow that lasted more than a week with bright sunshine every day.

[snow_wizard]

After today SEA is clearly on track for their lowest average for the first half of November in at least 50 years.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Well you did go on vacation down there to escape our dreary climate so.... kinda tough to take seriously !!

No... we just like to travel in the cold season.   And they are down here to escape their weather and the cold.   

[Cascadia_Wx]

31 minutes ago, Kayla said:

You do know that we just switched to Standard Time right? 

I agree, we should stop going to fake time in the Spring and stay on Standard Time year-round!

That would really be ideal.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That would really be ideal.

So of course it is not even being considered as an option.

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe some rain and wind?   That would be a nice change.

Anecdotally... I spent part of the afternoon at the pool bar with some really fun people from upstate NY watching the Bills-Vikings game.  I had a Seahawks t-shirt on and the conversation turned to what Seattle is like... and I honestly could not break their notion that it rains almost every day of the year.    Geeky weather stats don't make a good argument.  They were absolutely convinced and I was not changing their mind!   

Blame any movie taking place in the PNW.

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe some rain and wind?   That would be a nice change.

Anecdotally... I spent part of the afternoon at the pool bar with some really fun people from upstate NY watching the Bills-Vikings game.  I had a Seahawks t-shirt on and the conversation turned to what Seattle is like... and I honestly could not break their notion that it rains almost every day of the year.    Geeky weather stats don't make a good argument.  They were absolutely convinced and I was not changing their mind!   

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Noooo... and I don't think that is even being considered.   I think the options are DST all the time or keep switching the clocks.

There is support for permanent Standard Time in various states and studies show it is the healthiest option as well. After 9am sunrises here all winter is a hard pass for me.