November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals, including the southwestern US.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Snowfall totals, including southwestern US.

[Doinko]

Orchard Park, NY reported 66" inches almost 5 hours ago, and reports of heavy snow there right now. Crazy

[Deweydog]

Just now, Doinko said:

Orchard Park, NY reported 66" inches almost 5 hours ago, and reports of heavy snow there right now. Crazy

0” here.  31 degrees.

[Gradient Keeper]

38.3 with gusty cold east winds

[Gradient Keeper]

We are going to pay, and pay dearly for this December-January! C'MON!!!!

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

How? You love posting pics of Cold and SNOW, especially when you live in such an outstanding area by the foothills.

Yes... cold AND snow is all good.   Cold with no snow?  Zzzzzzz for me!

And its been getting into the 50s every day in North Bend so it's not even that cold at home.  

 

[TacomaWx]

Looking more and more likely this fall is going to end up incredibly dry. Just 4.10” of rain…gfs and euro show about 0.50” or less over the next 8 days. Will probably end up getting a decent soaker the last couple days of the month if I had to guess but we may are very likely going to end up well short of the driest fall I’ve recorded in 2018 with just 8.70” that year. 

[Doinko]

We've had around 7.5" of rain so far this fall

[Cloud]

OLM set a new record low last night with 17. That is pretty darn impressive! 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

11/19/03. The most memorable anafront of my life to date.

I found Anna’s rear more memorable.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

OLM set a new record low last night with 17. That is pretty darn impressive! 

It's normally pouring rain and windy in Olympia in the middle of November.   And they achieved that record low with a warm air mass overhead. 

[Cloud]

Coincidentally, the 17 at OLM this morning was just 2F colder than the previous record of 19 set in 2014. So they didn't smash it by any means, even though the 17 was pretty D**n impressive. Guess something about this day that is setting record lows for OLM. 

[Snownerd3000]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I found Anna’s rear more memorable.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Coincidentally, the 17 at OLM this morning was just 2F colder than the previous record of 19 set in 2014. So they didn't smash it by any means, even though the 17 was pretty D**n impressive. Guess something about this day that is setting record lows for OLM. 

2014 again.    Just find a long dry streak in November and you will find record cold in the wind protected spots.  

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

2014 again.    Just find a long dry streak in November and you will find record cold in the wind protected spots.  

I was about to look that up... would've bet it was pretty dry and clear. 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

2014 again.    Just find a long dry streak in November and you will find record cold in the wind protected spots.  

Some similarities to 2014 so far. Record warm ASO, cold early/mid November. And the big Buffalo lake effect snowstorm started today in 2014 as well.
I don't think this winter will be like 2014/15 though, I feel like we'll have a better chance this year

[Doinko]

Just now, Cloud said:

I was about to look that up... would've bet it was pretty dry and clear. 

November 2014 was really cold east of the cascades too, Redmond had a monthly record low of -19 with that airmass. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I remember a major mountain wave event in early November 2014, knocked my power out for a couple days. One of the rare times we have had strong east winds. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some similarities to 2014 so far. Record warm ASO, cold early/mid November. And the big Buffalo lake effect snowstorm started today in 2014 as well.
I don't think this winter will be like 2014/15 though, I feel like we'll have a better chance this year

Maybe.  

But I am not so sure now.   It wouldn't surprise me to see this winter be a total dud for skiing.   As sad as that would be.  

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

I've really enjoyed this month so far at least. Heavy rain to open the month, lowland snow in some places, then dry/cool with really nice sunshine.  And some strong east wind which I enjoy

Yeah nearly 6” of rain the first few days, an inch of snow, a massive windstorm, and a stretch of chilly dry days! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was still pretty breezy when I drove up

to PDX. 

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Some similarities to 2014 so far. Record warm ASO, cold early/mid November. And the big Buffalo lake effect snowstorm started today in 2014 as well.
I don't think this winter will be like 2014/15 though, I feel like we'll have a better chance this year

That thing in Buffalo is just crazy... saw videos of people opening their garage doors to +6' of snow. And those weren't drifts either, looked pretty uniform.

[Gradient Keeper]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a major mountain wave event in early November 2014, knocked my power out for a couple days. One of the rare times we have had strong east winds. 

The BIG Veteran's day wind storm and modified backdoor blast.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 32 now and the dp is still in the upper teens.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The BIG Veteran's day wind storm and modified backdoor blast.

I remember that one.  We lost power also.  I actually think the one yesterday was about the same here though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2013-14 had pretty poor snow pack too. I remember hiking up Table Rock in early January. Only a couple inches at 4900’.

[RentonHill]

I’m drunk but I ain’t that drunk 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

YOU GUYS. Tim’s being such a fu*king f*g tonight. Amirite? 🖐 

[Gradient Keeper]

Here you go! This is fun to read and brings back memories!

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/07/an-arctic-blast-in-mid-november/

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/crazy-weather-week-ahead/

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/10/monday-evening-update/

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/easterly-wind-storm-in-progress

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/53-mph-gust-at-pdx/

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2014/11/11/thoughts-on-snowice-thursday/

[Gradient Keeper]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

YOU GUYS. Tim’s being such a fu*king f*g tonight. Amirite? 🖐 

He seems to be in a weird mood. I can't pinpoint what's going on, but I just want to stick to weather and no drama. Outstanding.

[Gradient Keeper]

Temp 37.4, dewpoint 18.7 with gusty east wind. If you ask me by mid-November standards this is pretty much a modified low level blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[snow_wizard]

Omak is running a -9.4 departure month to date.  They had a few days that were in the -20s departure.

As an interesting aside their record low for the day was from 1916.  Another one of those fairly rare winters that was cold Nov - Feb.

[Gradient Keeper]

It appears the 00z GEFS through Day 12 is improved quite a bit from previous runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 already at Corvallis. This reminds me so much of November 2000.

[Gradient Keeper]

Think about this. All of the freezing temperatures we've seen, impressive cold minimums, record lows, the fairly impressive low level cold pool which led to an equally impressive low level blast through the Gorge with a significant east wind event and recent cratering dewpoints, all of this occurred with the ridge essentially overhead. Imagine if it had been a few hundred miles further west. Not in the sweet spot at ~160-150 W, but even just at ~140 W. We were THAT close to a significant backdoor blast. Just something to chew on.

[RentonHill]