November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking forward to Interstate 7, 11, and 50 being built to traverse shit road systems where we get stuck in truck spray with no way to pass and enjoy the scenery.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our trees took a crash course in going bare this year.  Nearly two weeks of freezing nights and the recent windstorm has made an amazing transformation here over the last week.  Abolutley terrible fall color this year.  First it was too dry and warm and then it got cold too suddenly.

Amazingly our Japanese Maples are still hanging on... latest I have ever seen them hold color.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

You have seriously not gotten below 20 since Jan 2017?  That is surprising.  

No, haven't been below 19. Our coldest temp last year also. But going this long without being below that?

Thank you for seeing how insanely long this depressing stretch has been. I'm telling you Jim, y'all would not like it here at all.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine anyone on this forum not liking January 1937 though.  That winter was a real rarity.  A cold / snowy winter without all of the nastiness around it.

By “nastiness” do you mean normal rain, storms and mountain snow? That stuff is what gives our region its character. I feel like the older I get the more I appreciate our typical climate around here. Seems like it’s been the opposite for you.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

By “nastiness” do you mean normal rain, storms and mountain snow? That stuff is what gives our region its character. I feel like the older I get the more I appreciate our typical climate around here. Seems like it’s been the opposite for you.

Enjoy those 110F+ days while I'm enjoying thunderstorms in Indiana...then cold every winter.

[Phishy Wx]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Our trees took a crash course in going bare this year.  Nearly two weeks of freezing nights and the recent windstorm has made an amazing transformation here over the last week.  Abolutley terrible fall color this year.  First it was too dry and warm and then it got cold too suddenly.

our shriveled up and literally seem 'stuck' to the trees, like frozen in place like the trees died from cold shock or something.  I guess we'll see in the spring

[joelgombiner]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Where is that?

Little basin in NE Seattle. You can see how it's protected from the winds on almost all sides. 

 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

You have seriously not gotten below 20 since Jan 2017?  That is surprising.  

Do yourself a favor. Don’t believe anything he says about the weather down there.

[Front Ranger]

38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Thanksgiving day... pretty crazy.

Looks like it will be well into the 60s at my parent's place in SW OR where we'll all be on Thanksgiving.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

James Holzhauer

[fubario]

59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Think it would be better for all of us if Musk just let him back on Twitter at this point 

Who? Tim?

[Cold Snap]

Got down to 24 again last night. Even though it has been getting into the upper 40s/ low 50s it feels chillier than that probably due to how dry the air is.

[Cold Snap]

38 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lol today was the coldest day at EUG since Jan 2017. Pathetic and depressing. Cannot wait to move my family away from here.

Has it taken anyone else here almost 6 years to have a return low temp take that long to come around?

We "only" got down to 20F here so we are still yet to see ours. Got down to 19F last winter but not colder. D**n variability.

If it makes you feel better about your longest streak without a sub freezing high, SEA didn’t record one for 7 straight years from Feb 2014 until Feb 2021. But SEA did manage to pull off 5 subfreezing highs last December.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, fubario said:

Who? Tim?

Yes... just launching endless personal attacks here as I reviewed the ECMWF run.  

If Jesse is annoyed then we are all doing something right.    He is pretty much the only one who makes it personal on here.   And he did it again with Tiger just a little while ago.   

[TT-SEA]

34 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Do yourself a favor. Don’t believe anything he says about the weather down there.

Nice.   

[joelgombiner]

6Z GFS gave Seattle 1.5" over the run, and the 12Z gives us 5.5". Hoping for an intermediate solution... 

[Phil]

This is hilarious. And it was talent 20hrs ago..there’s an additional 20”+ that has fallen since.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Cold Snap said:

If it makes you feel better about your longest streak without a sub freezing high, SEA didn’t record one for 7 straight years from Feb 2014 until Feb 2021. But SEA did manage to pull off 5 subfreezing highs last December.

7 years? Oh man, that's awful. Is that the record-longest streak without one there? We've had plenty of snow but have just been really unlucky in the sub-freezing high dept for a while.

I think we will break the streak this year.

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

our shriveled up and literally seem 'stuck' to the trees, like frozen in place like the trees died from cold shock or something.  I guess we'll see in the spring

We have some of that too, but the wind the other day ripped a lot of them off.

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

7 years? Oh man, that's awful. Is that the record-longest streak without one there? We've had plenty of snow but have just been really unlucky in the sub-freezing high dept for a while.

I think we will break the streak this year.

It does appear to be the longest streak by over a year. Interestingly a lot of these streaks ended during some really good winters. I have a feeling EUG will break the streak as well. Haven’t there been numerous times since then where you have recorded highs of 33-34?

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

By “nastiness” do you mean normal rain, storms and mountain snow? That stuff is what gives our region its character. I feel like the older I get the more I appreciate our typical climate around here. Seems like it’s been the opposite for you.

Don't get me wrong.  I loved seasons like 1990-91 and 1995-96 too.  I was just saying that 1936-37 was really remarkable in how quiet it was around the great stuff.

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

If it makes you feel better about your longest streak without a sub freezing high, SEA didn’t record one for 7 straight years from Feb 2014 until Feb 2021. But SEA did manage to pull off 5 subfreezing highs last December.

That's pretty misleading though.  We had some great winters in there and Feb 2019 of course which was flat out cold.  A lot of places outside of Seattle had a lot more freezing max temps.

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's pretty misleading though.  We had some great winters in there and Feb 2019 of course which was flat out cold.  A lot of places outside of Seattle had a lot more freezing max temps.

Yeah we had 4 sub freezing highs in 2019. One of them was a midnight high on 2/4 by late afternoon it was in the low 20s. 

[Cold Snap]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's pretty misleading though.  We had some great winters in there and Feb 2019 of course which was flat out cold.  A lot of places outside of Seattle had a lot more freezing max temps.

Yeah definitely. I had 4 subfreezing highs during Feb 2019 and also had a handful during 2016-17 and one during December 2017. I still don’t understand how SEA didn’t record one during Feb 2019 though. That was an epic arctic blast.

[bainbridgekid]

I’ve had 16 sub freezing highs since February 2019 and 68” of snow. Been a pretty awesome stretch.

[AlTahoe]

First day on the Mt was great today. 9F this morning with an east wind blowing chalky snow around. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

First day on the Mt was great today. 9F this morning with an east wind blowing chalky snow around. 

What a view!

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

This is hilarious. And it was talent 20hrs ago..there’s an additional 20”+ that has fallen since.

 

 

The snow is extremely local. Just spoke to a guy on the north end of Buffalo and he has received less than 12 inches.
 

Really frustrating for weather wenie 

[Omegaraptor]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Might not see a “standard” niña pattern until late Jan or early Feb. This doesn’t account for any potential SSW/deeper NAM flip before then, of course.

Another round of potent blocking seems likely starting mid-Dec as MJO returns to IPWP/WPAC, after a transient zonal flow pattern late Nov/early Dec.

Would not surprise me if 80% or more of the CONUS is in the deep freeze during the holiday season this year, with a large ridge over Alaska. Would be very different from previous years.

You post this and then two hours later my family tells me we're going to Sunriver during winter break. 

Can we beat 2016 and 2021 holiday seasons? Hmmmmm...

[AlTahoe]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What a view!

Seen it a thousand times and it never gets old! 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lol today was the coldest day at EUG since Jan 2017. Pathetic and depressing. Cannot wait to move my family away from here.

Has it taken anyone else here almost 6 years to have a return low temp take that long to come around?

We "only" got down to 20F here so we are still yet to see ours. Got down to 19F last winter but not colder. D**n variability.

To be fair I doubt we've dropped below 22 or so since 2017 as well. Hillsboro is normally pretty great for radiational cooling and they've only dropped to 19 since then (Nov 2019, Feb 2022).

Obviously your luck with a subfreezing high has been much worse though, but I hope your streak will end this winter

[TT-SEA]

48 at SEA... 52 in North Bend.    I also see its 52 at UW so parts of Seattle are warmer than SEA.

[Phishy Wx]

31 Sunny

[ShawniganLake]

3 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

2019? We had just 1.83” of rain that month. Already at 2.12” this month. 

We would need another inch to catch up with 2019. Looks like that will probably happen next week. I had forgotten how dry 2019 was though. 

[snow_wizard]

Both Russia and North America are so cold right now that global temps are running about 0.3C lower than this time last year.  That is pretty significant.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

First day on the Mt was great today. 9F this morning with an east wind blowing chalky snow around. 

That snow looks like it's been on the ground for a long time.  No snow on the trees and packed looking.

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, Doinko said:

To be fair I doubt we've dropped below 22 or so since 2017 as well. Hillsboro is normally pretty great for radiational cooling and they've only dropped to 19 since then (Nov 2019, Feb 2022).

Obviously your luck with a subfreezing high has been much worse though, but I hope your streak will end this winter

That is really surprising for Hillsboro.  It's just a matter of time.

[snow_wizard]

18/-3 for Winthrop so far today.  Damn that place is cold!

[Gradient Keeper]

Pressure Gradients - UPDATE

For those in the PDX metro area who are waiting for the east winds to end, well I have some promising news. The Gorge/Gap gradient has weakened about 2mb over the past 4 hours. For me though it's like a long lost friend leaving, but that is because I'm an EWL East Wind Lunatic. Yep. I wear that badge proudly and with honor. Today marks day # 6 of east winds. This been a rare November east wind episode and we haven't seen anything close to this since November 2014 when an early season backdoor arctic blast occurred. The main highlight was the prolific Veterans Day East wind storm, but strong wind blew for many days. There was even a High Wind Warning for the metro area. Anyhow. The easterly gradients should continue to slowly back off as the 12z WRF-GFS 1.33km shows by 10 PM this evening the PDX-DLS gradient should be down to -5 to -6mb and by tomorrow it will be much weaker.

2 PM

[Gorge/Gap Gradients]
PDX-DLS: -8.4mb
TTD-DLS: -8.0mb

[Cross Cascade Gradients]
PDX-YKM: -8.4mb
PDX-MWH: -8.9mb
PDX-GEG: -8.7mb
OTH-GEG: -11.3mb

*Legend: PDX = Portland, DLS = The Dalles, TTD = Troutdale, YKM = Yakima, MWH = Moses Lake, GEG = Spokane, OTH = North Bend

A -Negative value denotes easterly/northerly flow
A +Positive value denotes westerly/onshore flow
 

What's a Pressure Gradient?
A pressure gradient measures the difference in Barometric Pressure between two locations. For example, PDX pressure is currently 30.25 in and The Dalles is at 30.49 in. Higher pressure at The Dalles and lower pressure at Portland induces an east wind through the Gorge.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Drunk Uncle alert