November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Dark day on the forum.

For the weenies. Not for folx like you and me. We've been in combat together. Weather war veterans so to speak. 

[MossMan]

It’s over. 

[RentonHill]

18z - Old GFS vs New GFS - Day 9 (edited to show same wxmodels color scheme for consistency

 

[Doinko]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November 2000. 

Buffalo lake effect snowstorm that month too

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the weenies. Not for folx like you and me. We've been in combat together. Weather war veterans so to speak. 

So many crushing losses to the Tim AXIS the last decade.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Winter cancel!

[TT-SEA]

Was cleaning up some pics on phone... summer is coming again soon!  Makes me happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So we have a cutoff issue right now. Might need to correct that for better runz ahead.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z - Old GFS vs New GFS - Day 10

New GFS and the Euro look good at day 10

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

So many crushing losses to the Tim AXIS the last decade.

It's true. If June 2021 was Hiroshima then the summer of 2022 was our Vietnam. What a quagmire. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Was cleaning up some pics on phone... summer is coming again soon!  Makes me happy.

It seems you have lost your edge. 

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It seems you have lost your edge. 

He usually has some stronger trolling material when he is on vacation. 
 

I give this one a 3/10. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the 18z wants to go somewhere, but that block looks too far west. 

[RentonHill]

Green!

[RentonHill]

New GFS at Day 13

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

New GFS at Day 13

 

Kutoff Krazy

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We'll get there.

[Doinko]

Almost 5' of snow at Orchard Park so far

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

Feb 2022 was also cold, too bad the wind didn't let up at night here and it was mostly sunny. I think 850mb temps dropped to -10.1 at SLE.

Good point, that would be on the list, too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Give it a few days, perhaps up to 5 day, the models will come around and look far more inviting. This isn't new.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

November 2000. 

That winter blew its cold temp load in November over here with a -2 in mid month.  ended up being the coldest low of that winter.  oof

[snow_wizard]

Dew points still in the single digits in the East Puget Sound Lowlands.  I have never wanted it to decouple so badly in my life...well maybe there have been a few times.

By the looks of the pressure gradients almost everywhere should decouple tonight.  Going to be really cold.

Speaking of cold....nice overperformance for many places last night vs model expectations.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

That winter blew its cold temp load in November over here with a -2 in mid month.  ended up being the coldest low of that winter.  oof

The context is wrong for that year though.  Cool summer and this year was very hot.  I don't think it had the extreme dryness we have seen this year either.  I get it though.  People on here are always looking for the worst.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Give it a few days, perhaps up to 5 day, the models will come around and look far more inviting. This isn't new.

00z ECMWF in 6 hours

Did you see the end of the 12z ECMWF?  Looked pretty good to me.  As I've been saying.  MJO 7.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The context is wrong for that year though.  Cool summer and this year was very hot.  I don't think it had the extreme dryness we have seen this year either.  I get it though.  People on here are always looking for the worst.

That November had about 2.8" of rain at SLE, this month has already had about 5.5". 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The context is wrong for that year though.  Cool summer and this year was very hot.  I don't think it had the extreme dryness we have seen this year either.  I get it though.  People on here are always looking for the worst.

I am actually feeling pretty freaking good JIM.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The context is wrong for that year though.  Cool summer and this year was very hot.  I don't think it had the extreme dryness we have seen this year either.  I get it though.  People on here are always looking for the worst.

yea it didn't have a hot augtober either.  need a better anal log I think

[Doinko]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Jan 2004, Feb 2006, Nov 2006, Jan 2007, Dec 2008, Mar 2009, Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, Jan 2012, Jan 2013, Dec 2013, Feb 2014, Nov 2014, Dec 2016, Jan 2017, Feb 2018, Feb 2019, Mar 2019, Feb 2021, Dec 2021. Probably forgetting a couple.

Never said top tier.

Feb 2022: Phase 3
Dec 2021: Phase 7
Feb 2021: Phase 7
March 2019: Phase 3
Feb 2019: Phase 7
Feb 2018: Phase 8 then 1
Jan 2017: Null
Dec 2016: Null
Nov 2014: Phase 8
Feb 2014: Null
Dec 2013: Weak Phase 3
Jan 2012: Null
Feb 2011: Null and briefly Phase 7 then 6
Nov 2010: Null
Dec 2009: Null
Dec 2008: Null/weak Phase 7
Jan 2007: Phase 6
Nov 2006: Phase 4
Feb 2006: Weak Phase 1/8
Jan 2004: Phase 7

I got the data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/. It's not 100% accurate because I tried choosing what I thought was the starting date from those events but I could've been off on a few of them. Sometimes the phases alternated or very slightly went into one phase or another. Some good events in Phase 7 but not too much correlation really

[Meatyorologist]

Low of 30F at KSEA. Coldest of the season and the third freeze so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

It is going to be impressively cold the next two nights especially if you lose the east wind. Many teens and low 20s are coming. Cold enough for Socks(c)Rob 2016

00z GFS in 3 hours 12 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Somehow I managed to pull off a freeze this morning.  It was 38 when I left for work just before sunrise and it ended up dropping to 31.  Must have decoupled for a few minutes.  Anyway that's 11 in a row.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That November had about 2.8" of rain at SLE, this month has already had about 5.5". 

I was referring to the dryness that has been going on for months.  Up here we are way below normal for the month to date BTW.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It is going to be impressively cold the next two nights especially if you lose the east wind. Many teens and low 20s are coming. Cold enough for Socks(c)Rob 2016

00z GFS in 3 hours 12 minutes

Indeed.  This is a pretty exceptional dry air mass we are in.  And this after an already impressively cold month up to now.

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Feb 2022: Phase 3
Dec 2021: Phase 7
Feb 2021: Phase 7
March 2019: Phase 3
Feb 2019: Phase 7
Feb 2018: Phase 8 then 1
Jan 2017: Null
Dec 2016: Null
Nov 2014: Phase 8
Feb 2014: Null
Dec 2013: Weak Phase 3
Jan 2012: Null
Feb 2011: Null and briefly Phase 7 then 6
Nov 2010: Null
Dec 2009: Null
Dec 2008: Null/weak Phase 7
Jan 2007: Phase 6
Nov 2006: Phase 4
Feb 2006: Weak Phase 1/8
Jan 2004: Phase 7

I got the data from here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/. It's not 100% accurate because I tried choosing what I thought was the starting date from those events but I could've been off on a few of them. Sometimes the phases alternated or very slightly went into one phase or another. Some good events in Phase 7 but not too much correlation really

7 is the single most likely region to bring below normal temps for us.  Your list has a lot more 7s than any other zone.

[snow_wizard]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I am actually feeling pretty freaking good JIM.

Sorry.  I just get so defensive about the 1998-2001 La Nina.  

[High Desert Mat?]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sorry.  I just get so defensive about the 1998-2001 La Nina.  

Also don’t forget the worst of them all Jim, 1973-1976 La Niñas. Gross. And the last year of those by far the worst. 

[snow_wizard]

49/18 in OLM and 21/-1 in Winthrop.  This month is putting up some nice numbers.

[Winterdog]

Only got up to 42 here today after a low of 20 and now 35 on the way down.  Tonight will make it 12 in a row, 15 on the month.  I do have a real concern that tonights low will be the coldest for the winter.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

Also don’t forget the worst of them all Jim, 1976-1977 La Niña. Gross

That was a Nino.  Interestingly that January was pretty darn cold though.  The average in Landsburg, which is quite close to me was around 32 degrees in Jan 1977.  Really boring winter though.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

Only got up to 42 here today after a low of 20 and now 35 on the way down.  Tonight will make it 12 in a row, 15 on the month.  I do have a real concern that tonights low will be the coldest for the winter.  

I'm sure many would have thought the same in the November 1936 cold snap.  That January killed it!