November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Surface anomalies look solid too

Cold temp anomalies all the way to the end of the run.

[snow_wizard]

32 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just updated our November stats. Sitting at a 37.0 monthly mean. I think we may come in a little cooler than last January, if so this month would be cooler than any January since 2017. 

I'm going to end up below 40 here for the month.  Coldest November of the century so far and December is going to start out cold too!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

Cold temp anomalies all the way to the end of the run.

It's just amazing how it keeps finding ways to get cold right now.  The period we are in now was supposed to be a torch according to the models a few days ago and it ended up below normal for many places.

[snow_wizard]

Freezes number 17 and 18 for the month now IMBY.  A November with 20 or more is no easy trick in this climate.

[WeatherGeek2022]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are still recovering from whatever is going around.   I had avoided COVID but certain I had a week ago.   Still unusually tired too.

same here, stuffs going around to everybody it seems like. wish the lingering symptoms would just go away.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So glad your 11mo old is okay. The uncontrollable coughing is the absolute worst part for me. I think I would have been fine by now if the added bonus of COVID didn’t strike as well. Felt like I was on the mend but then i suddenly felt super tired and I swear I had s nose of a dog that could smell anything from a mile away, that quickly went into no smell or taste so I tested myself and sure enough….I just hope to god that everyone stays healthy for a month or two at least. 

Going to need those antibodies to fight off the next few ECMWF runs.

[Cold Snap]

Temp has risen 2 degrees to 38 at my location. Don’t think I am going to get to freezing tonight.

[snow_wizard]

31.8 here now!  Not too shabby.

[Skagit Weather]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It's just amazing how it keeps finding ways to get cold right now.  The period we are in now was supposed to be a torch according to the models a few days ago and it ended up below normal for many places.

The last 4 days (Nov 22-25) have all been above average up here. So not the torch that was shown in the models last week, but still hasn't really been particularly cold. And I know you keep picking up freezes, but many places are not as cold as your backyard.

[gusky]

Not exactly what you wanna see, but a downgrade was expected for 00z

[snow_wizard]

Dayam!  PNA, EPO, and NAO are all solidly minus for the next 15 days on the EPS.  Wow!

[Cold Snap]

Honestly if there was one good trend tonight the 00z EPS trended colder in the mid range and that along with the 00z GEFS trended colder in the long range. I know the long range doesn’t really mean much right now but it’s good to see that we might keep this cold pattern going for a while.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Not exactly what you wanna see, but a downgrade was expected for 00z

The 0z EPS looked better than the 18z.  It's starting to come back.

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, gusky said:

Not exactly what you wanna see, but a downgrade was expected for 00z

KPAE should look better. There was a donut hole south of Seattle on this run. With that, 4" isn't bad.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Honestly if there was one good trend tonight the 00z EPS trended colder in the mid range and that along with the 00z GEFS trended colder in the long range. I know the long range doesn’t really mean much right now but it’s good to see that we might keep this cold pattern going for a while.

Don't forget the operational ECMWF was pretty darn good.

[RayRay]

If this verifies it will be incredible…

 

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Don't forget the operational ECMWF was pretty darn good.

Yeah there was that too. I definitely would say that tonight still looks good for People in Washington.

[MWG]

Maybe.....lol The WSW it's for above 2500 feet. Currently 42F and light rain.

[snow_wizard]

A lot of cold members on tonight's EPS.  Really cold control run as well.

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

Add the two, Jim!

[Cold Snap]

06z NAM is showing -6C 850s for Seattle Sunday morning. Doesn’t go above -5C during the day and then drops down back to -6C and even lower Sunday night.

[Cold Snap]

Snowfall totals through Monday morning on the 06z NAM.

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Snowfall totals through Monday morning on the 06z NAM.

It shows a very narrow 2" band of snow directly over my house! Unlikely to happen but I'll keep my eyes peeled!

[Meatyorologist]

ICON coming in more north with that low. Still likely to bomb out unfavorably.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We'll get 'em again next time, northerly friends. I'm here for you if you need someone to message to about being bummed...assuming the GFS goes to shitt further.

[snow_wizard]

6z GFS is keeping the trough closer to the coast than the 0z.

[IceKing]

Has Mr. Fred stolen winter again

[Nov1985]

6Z GFS logbook. Going into Monday morning Dec 5, past 4 GFS runs. Lows a bit weaker and less onshore flow with the 6Z GFS.

[Slushy Inch]

Well GEFS is still snowy for WW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z was pretty fugly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We ll see where the 12z runs go, but it might be time for some folks to start getting real about next week. The ensembles are really starting to back off the deep cold potential with the 2nd shot. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We ll see where the 12z runs go, but it might be time for some folks to start getting real about next week. The ensembles are really starting to back off the deep cold potential with the 2nd shot. 

We've seen how this movie ends...

[Brennan]

On 11/23/2022 at 7:48 PM, MossMan said:

I thought you moved to Georgia or the Carolina’s or something? 

We moved to South Carolina in February last year. We came to visit in July and ended up making it an extended stay. (I flew back to South Carolina, and drove our car from the Charleston Airport to our house in Inman, picked up fall/winter stuff and drove back to Washington after paying for 50 days of parking at the airport. LOL . Drove from SC to Dallas, to Bellingham in 2 sleeps.  We're heading back east again in February... Having another baby in April. 

[Brennan]

Seattle NWS is starting to talk in percentages for snowfall based off of all 80 something ensemble members. Interesting! Hopefully as details come into view a little closer they continue writing their synopsis this way. 

[Brennan]

FWIW I see no reason to be fudging about the coming events. We're still well within the range of back and forth days with the models for the main event here (Wednesday)... At the very least, this one has POTENTIAL to bring significant snowfall to the Western WA Lowlands...  All you can ask for... Potential. It's there. 

I view this like the Mariners in the playoffs. It was just fun watching them play in meaningful games. It's fun having meaningful wintery weather to track as we move into the holidays. It's November 26th for crying out loud! 16 year ann. of one of the biggest November snowstorms in Whatcom County recorded history. 14" in Bellingham and up to 24" in parts of the county. Long live 11/26/2006... We also had a low of 12*F on 11/27. Bring it back!!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We ll see where the 12z runs go, but it might be time for some folks to start getting real about next week. The ensembles are really starting to back off the deep cold potential with the 2nd shot. 

Yeah unless 12z or 00z runs today are a bit further east with the arctic trough I agree. I'm not seeing anything too exciting, especially south of Seattle, maybe Olympia. Any time there are lowland snow chances though it is exciting, but after we've seen so many cold runs of the GFS/EURO one can get their hopes up often unrealistically, so when the models water things down within 84-96 hours it just doesn't have the same luster. Right now models have introduced too much southwesterly flow due to the arctic trough still a bit too far west as it slides down the BC Coast. Still time for that to change, although the window for it to do so is narrowing with each model run.

[LowerGarfield]

Flying back to Spokane later this morning. Picked a good day to fly back but we decided to stay overnight. Wish us well driving in the snow and wind tomorrow. Can't wait to go home and set up my snowboard measurements though.

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

100100

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

100100

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