November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Awesome run if you want heavy snow in western Washington.  

[Slushy Inch]

So, has it been acknowledged that GEFS is much better?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[MossMan]

.99” on the day, 7.68” on the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So, has it been acknowledged that GEFS is much better?

It has! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm just going to step away until this sorts itself out.  None of us has any idea how this will play out right now obviously.

Why step away? That won't change the outcome man. Just relax and enjoy the ride.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So, has it been acknowledged that GEFS is much better?

Any model that is still looking good is wrong…Apparently. 

[Slushy Inch]

0z GEFS better with snow for WW then 18zGEFS

[SouthHillFrosty]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

So, has it been acknowledged that GEFS is much better?

[Slushy Inch]

Huge jump in snow chances on new GEFS.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

0z GEFS better with snow for WW then 18zGEFS

That’s impressive. Gives Seattle a 50/50 shot of getting 6 or more inches 

[Slushy Inch]

If you haven't noticed. GEFS is very good for snow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Spokane had some light snow over the past hour. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Slushy Inch]

Direct comparison

[Bueryan]

2 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

If you haven't noticed. GEFS is very good for snow.

Snow maps at hour 300 are what got us into this mess.

[WeatherGeek2022]

3 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

If you haven't noticed. GEFS is very good for snow.

#fantasyrange

[RentonHill]

Best place to take an online “fundamentals of weather” class ?? Asking for a friend

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

#fantasyrange

It's an ensemble, it's more valuable. It is a total snowfall, not just at 300hrs.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Snow maps at hour 300 are what got us into this mess.

It's an ensemble, it's more valuable. It is a total snowfall, not just at 300hrs.

[The Blob]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

If you haven't noticed. GEFS is very good for snow.

[Cascadia_Wx]

GEM ensembles looking good

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

[Kolk1604]

6 minutes ago, Bueryan said:

Snow maps at hour 300 are what got us into this mess.

Too bad they didn't exist. We never had ensembles that looked that good. 

And was the overall pattern, not snow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Ngl, i totally forgot the Euro hasn’t ran yet

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's an ensemble, it's more valuable. It is a total snowfall, not just at 300hrs.

Ensemble snow maps aren’t that valuable. Just one or two ensemble members can have a big fantasy snowstorm in the long range and it will skew the whole thing to look snowy. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by FroYoBro

[RentonHill]

I kinda hope it just puts us out of our misery tbh

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Ensemble snow maps aren’t valuable at all. Just one or two ensemble members can have a big fantasy snowstorm in the long range and it will skew the whole thing to look snowy. 

It's much higher in short term too

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My hunch is next week ends up roughly similar to early December 1992, 1994, 2016. 
 

The most extreme outlier runs like the 12z euro yesterday may have been able to compete with November 2010. That may be possible, but I don’t think it is a reasonable expectation at this point. 

Early December 1994 had a really nice event for the south sound. 3-8" from Olympia to Tacoma.

[RentonHill]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 slightly better folks.

[Kolk1604]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I kinda hope it just puts us out of our misery tbh

Or at the very least break it up and set us up for a reset in a couple week. Maybe when conditions are more favorable 

[Chewbacca Defense]

45 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2022 said:

I smell bust incoming.

Oh sorry, I had Taco Bell for dinner.

[Gradient Keeper]

If it were to dig due south that would be great.

[Timmy]

7 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

It's much higher in short term too

Ensembles are most useful outside day 5-7 or so in picking up big pattern changes. They run at lower resolution than the operational Inside day 7 I believe, so you aren’t going to win going against the op very often in the short-mid range 

Edited November 26, 2022 by Timmy

[Weiner Warrior]

Too warm

 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

This is pretty close to the 2020 snow line lol 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Also slightly better a few notches closer to the BC Coast

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Digging more south than southwest. This isn't over yet folks.

[Weiner Warrior]

Winter canceled