November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

That area did really well in 2013/14. 20-25" I'm pretty sure.

Yeah I moved to Bellingham in 2002.  We have certainly had some doozies up here, but it would have been fun to see all that snow in the WV

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Alright…You forced me to go back in time…Enjoy this blast from the past! 

Classic!   The models will screw with us every time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not to mention a large chunk of the region not seeing much action. We did great at the end of Feb 2019 but some folks up north didn't.

It was by far the best winter month I’ve experienced up here. So I’m not trying to say it wasn’t a great month. 

[Deweydog]

10 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Considering the really obvious percentages, shouldn't a major pullback always be the expected outcome when cold/snow starts showing up in the models?

Shouldn't the pullback be planned for every single time so when the 1 out of 50 actually hits it's a pleasant surprise?

I know that when I start seeing the juicy post nowadays I only wonder one thing.....when will it pullback?

It doesn't always bust of course and my 1 in 50 number is an exaggeration but models are almost always off and sometimes they are off by a lot when talking about anything beyond day three.

I am starting to think that constant letdowns brought on by the near constant model pullbacks are somehow enjoyable for some. Is that the case? Is that what is happening?

I am not talking specifically about the currently anticipated winter weather for next week but more in general as I see the exact same pattern of excitement/letdown, excitement/letdown year after year....it never changes.

Maybe I am misreading this and everyone really does know that most every setup is going to pullback and they are actually fine with it. The thrill is in the chase type of thing maybe?

I think the vast majority of people here know very well this is a high risk/high reward hobby when you’re counting in numerical models to get it right at the ranges we expect. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What we are seeing right now on the forum is the most predictable phenomenon of all.

[Doinko]

[Terreboner]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

That could be because PDX has been shafted recently. Kinda dampens the enthusiasm. 

 

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

That map is way, way off.

[Doinko]

Just now, Terreboner said:

 

That map is way, way off.

Yep, shows how bad it looked on 1/31/19 and then what happened

[High Desert Mat?]

I’ll bet anyone on here that the EPS and the Euro Op prove to come out on top in this one. Just not feeling it YET but I believe it does happen this winter for all of us, except maybe donut hole Jim, but everyone else probably gets the goods. 

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yep, shows how bad it looked on 1/31/19 and then what happened

Close to 30” imby. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

[RentonHill]

1 EPS member believes in the GEFS. 3 GEFS members believe in the EPS. Find out who wins  tonight on dragonball Z!!

[Doinko]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Alright…You forced me to go back in time…Enjoy this blast from the past! 

Just checked that thread... I'm feeling better now

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Yeah I was definitely beyond the grey! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

1 EPS member believes in the GEFS. 3 GEFS members believe in the EPS. Find out who wins  tonight on dragonball Z!!

Looks like a lot of members are showing it cooling down again after the brief warm up… this is an idea several runs were flirting with a few days ago. 

[TacomaWx]

This was just 4 days before February 2021. Some of this sounds pretty familiar . Not saying it will happen very much in the air but there can be quite a bit of uncertainty with snow events. It didn’t look clear until about 72 hours out with this one. 

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

What we are seeing right now on the forum is the most predictable phenomenon of all.

Human nature is a billion times more predictable than the atmosphere.

[RentonHill]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a lot of members are showing it cooling down again after the brief warm up… this is an idea several runs were flirting with a few days ago. 

Ya that’s a good point. There was a lot of consistency about a brief 850 spike before second wave hit. This transition from the long range to intermediate range models always seems be extremely messy.

[Kolk1604]

Did anyone know weathermodels has the 9km EMCWF? Here's the end of the 18z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Icon shows the energy digging offshore an AR into W Oregon becoming an anafront, then cold air sweeping in behind. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 (Past 4 runs)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

This was just 4 days before February 2021. Some of this sounds pretty familiar . Not saying it will happen very much in the air but there can be quite a bit of uncertainty with snow events. It didn’t look clear until about 72 hours out with this one. 

In all fairness February 2021 blew chunks down here. Biggest ice storm in 80 years. 

[Doinko]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In all fairness February 2021 blew chunks down here. Biggest ice storm in 80 years. 

I saw some comparisons to Jan 2011 in that January 2019 thread

[TacomaWx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In all fairness February 2021 blew chunks down here. Biggest ice storm in 80 years. 

Yeah I understand on your end. Things were very very uncertain up here though as well. Just goes to show how wrong the models can be even 4 days out. 

[The Blob]

2 hours ago, Terreboner said:

Unfortunately, 90% of people in general probably need therapy.  This forum is a good representation of the population.

I prefer to have my breakdowns at work, then I don't have to do anything.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

I saw some comparisons to Jan 2011 in that January 2019 thread

Dude that was just as brutal as 2005. I was 10 years old at the time and literally in tears when that went south as a kid. Now that I’m older I don’t let the model busts affect me nearly as much However of course it’s always disappointing when things go bad. 

[Blizzard777]

Another photo of the edge as it slipped on by.  Rosario Straits with Orcas Island. 
Beautiful up here!

.86 precipitation Federal Way 48/38 and currently 38*

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Nope. Block is reorganizing too far west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I bet Tim does well Sunday night. 
 

Monday morning looks good here on the 00z GFS, probably the best combo of cold and moisture with that first trough. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Nope. Block is reorganizing too far west.

TKO in the third round. Tough

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 850s Better soak in all the cold from the first trough. There likely won't be a second one.

 

[Dave]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In all fairness February 2021 blew chunks down here. Biggest ice storm in 80 years. 

The Enchanted Forest was damaged so badly they almost threw in the towel.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that was fun.

[Deweydog]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 3.5 850s Better soak in all the cold from the first trough. There likely won't be a second one.

 

Ever?

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Ever?

Yeah just dirty ridges and dirty sanchez, and .... dirt storms

[bainbridgekid]

GFS hopped on the cyclogenesis train. Storm is way stronger and further North at hour 96. Sh*t.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 .... That is painful.

[RentonHill]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 4 .... That is painful.

Quack

[GHweatherChris]

And.... Next.  Mother Nature is a cruel kuunt.  Oh well.  

Edited November 26, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[The Cats Meow]

Throw it out. Let's look at something that shows what we want.