Requiem Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Officially off board 1 1 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 00z GEFS shows the Op is a warm outlier big time after Day 4.5 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, Deweydog said: New GFS might make this place kinda boring. We’ll need more memes. Fred funnels a slush fund into the NWS specifically for the current GFS to keep it running 4x a day vs the euro to keep page hits up. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Incorrect. I found a way to see it by states. Where you see GFS 16.3, click on USA instead of North America and it let's you zoom into any state. Tonight's 0Z 18z Right here? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEFS shows the Op is a warm outlier big time after Day 4.5 So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational. Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution. Is it in the medium range? And how do you define medium range. Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much. Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational. Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution. Is it in the medium range? And how do you define medium range. Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much. Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range. Good point. I'd say medium range is Day 4.5+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 GEFS at Day 7 compared to last night 00z run. 850s. I'm just going to choose to look at this and be happy. Consider it one of those "sun lamp" kind of things. Now i just need some Prozac. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational. Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution. Is it in the medium range? And how do you define medium range. Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much. Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range. The icon and GEM are probably a lot more in line with what the GFS ensembles are showing. 1 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Right here? Yes. And that opens it up to either regions or states. And what us odd and I can't explain, click it once and it opens up to regions (PNW, Great Lakes, etc). Go back, click on USA again, and THEN it shows states. Go back and click again, only regions, then back and click, states. Seems to go back and forth. No wonder why it was so hard to find. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 This GEFS is way snowier than the 18z at least for Portland and North 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 At least I still have these guys in the freezer to cheer me up. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: So I'm wondering at what point the ensembles become more important than the operational. Definitely not in the short term since the operational is at a much higher resolution. Is it in the medium range? And how do you define medium range. Either way it would be hard to have a lot of confidence in the operational when it diverges so much. Not that it can't be right, but much less likely to be right than normal at that range. I’ve found that using ensembles inside about 150 hours can get pretty sketchy. Of course it also depends on what you’re using them for. 2 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said: This GEFS is way snowier than the 18z at least for Portland and North Post it pls? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Post it pls? This is out to hour 186. Surface Temps look good also. 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 There is still plenty of time to see things shift back to the east the next 72 hours. Do I expect it? No, but you can't rule anything out at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowlandsnow Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Ah, I see it's doom and gloom season. 2 1 1 1 Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him 3 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him Epic runs ahead 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I'm just going to step away until this sorts itself out. None of us has any idea how this will play out right now obviously. 1 3 1 4 2 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 1 1 https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 00z GEFS surface temps PDX still frozen. When looking at temps at The Dalles and Moses Lake it indicates a major low level cold pool signature. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run! 1 1 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 SK going in the meat locker 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run! Great question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Columbia Basin ridiculously cold in the deep freezer. Moses Lake. Surface temps. Also note how much the op was an outlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: I wonder if any of us will survive tonight’s Euro run! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I smell bust incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2022 said: I smell bust incoming. It would only be a bust if things drastically changed at the onset of a pattern, what is happening now is just disappointment and loss of hope of any good potential outcome. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: It would only be a bust if things drastically changed at the onset of a pattern, what is happening now is just disappointment and loss of hope of any good potential outcome. That D**n BC terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 This run is straight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said: This run is straight I think that would be more like an atmospheric river instead of a block. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 32 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: We still in this fam. GEFS still got that dawg in him This is fantastic 1 Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 I’m not going to worry yet. This is still 5 days out like Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 were at the time of the pullback. I feel like someone is still going to score something. 3 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Just now, Snownerd3000 said: This run is straight I thought it was more like this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 Currently 36. Got 0.78” of rain for the day. Though I might get a little more as it looks like there are some convergence zone showers forming. 1 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: I thought it was more like this. You and my 4 year old would get along great. all poop all the time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gummy Posted November 26, 2022 Report Share Posted November 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: I’m not going to worry yet. This is still 5 days out like Feb 2019 and Feb 2021 were at the time of the pullback. I feel like someone is still going to score something. True. I can see North Bend doing well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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