November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Total looks good for the Puget Sound….. one or two more runs and this is cold rain

 

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

52 consecutive hours of snowfall around Seattle? I think this fcst will see some more tweaks over the next 4 days. 

The all time greats thread a fine line. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet its actually snowier for many places.   

How do you think people should interpret this post?

[Requiem]

A December 2016 repeat would be nice...

[Kolk1604]

Day 6

[Slushy Inch]

On the bright side, healthier ridge by Saturday. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

How do you think people should interpret this post?

I have literally no idea how to interpret any of it... and no idea what will happen.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century.

[TT-SEA]

I will say it appears lack of moisture won't be a problem.    That is about all I know.

[Kolk1604]

Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Dude that was just as brutal as 2005. I was 10 years old at the time and literally in tears when that went south as a kid. Now that I’m older I don’t let the model busts affect me nearly as much However of course it’s always disappointing when things go bad. 

I believe January 2011 was when Tim went all in and told everyone at his wife’s business party that we were facing a January 1950 redux…Then it all fell apart and his wife made him sleep in the second crappier shed. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6

Wow.    Can you access that on WB?

[Kolk1604]

That low early next week looks to go way north 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6

Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by MossMan

[SnarkyGoblin]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have literally no idea how to interpret any of it... and no idea what will happen.  

You misunderstood my question. Oh well.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century.

 

[Kolk1604]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Wow.    Can you access that on WB?

I don't think so. I've only seen it on weathermodels. Brian might know more he's the one that pointed it out 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December last year.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I believe January 2011 was when Tim went all in and told everyone at his wife’s business party that we were facing a January 1950 redux…Then it all fell apart and his wife made him sleep in the second crappier shed. 

LOL.   I don't remember that but I trust your memory way more than mine!  

[Gradient Keeper]

The block simply migrated too far west and took on an unfavorable tilt positioned just west of ~160 W. That would work if it were at ~145-150 W probably, but not when its over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska.

[Deweydog]

New GFS might make this place kinda boring.

We’ll need more memes.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's not all bad news. There is a a lot of mountain snow and California sees nice relief with rain and good Sierra snows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December last year.

Oh like when we hit 66 up here on December 1st and like pretty much every station east of the cascades set all time record highs? 

[Deweydog]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The pattern being shown really isn’t that bad. Chilly. We could do a whole lot worse. For reference check out the last week of November/first few days of December 2005.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Deweydog

[Nov1985]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Also the New GFS doesn't really have any snow. Here's day 6

That would make more sense. -2 to -4 850Ts can't usually sustain prolonged and moderate snowfalls around Seattle. -4 to -2 in the picture Wed night in this run. 

Still that low could be gone next run, and/or big high pressure over southern BC keeps coming and going. We should all log off and check back late Sunday night. 

[Kolk1604]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. 

Unfortunately no. West coast is the best they have for now 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

I don't think so. I've only seen it on weathermodels. Brian might know more he's the one that pointed it out 

Correct.  The only views they have that would show the PNW are North America, the U.S. and the West Coast.  You can enlarge the image a bit on the phone but not helpful for any details. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[High Desert Mat?]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Wonder where Jim went. Must be tabulating his stats showing the dramatic cooling trends this century.

He’s gonna lose his sh$t when he comes back on and sees that everyone isn’t positive. Come on guys, let’s put together a little holiday cheer just for him. 

[Nov1985]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Do you have a close up? Looks good for my area but I am also looking at Cabo and Hawaii so it’s hard to tell. 

Zoom zoom zoom. Looks like Everett north get some.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Correct.  The only views they have that would show the PNW are North America, the U.S. and the West Coast.  You can enlarge the image a bit on the phone but not helpful for any details. 

Incorrect.   I found a way to see it by states.  Where you see GFS 16.3, click on USA instead of North America and it let's you zoom into any state.

Tonight's 0Z

 

18z

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 5

[RentonHill]

I’m leaving for @AlTahoe on Sunday. I can fit 7 uncomfortably and you can only bring what’s on your back. I’ll pay half gas. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Of course models change and it they could change again (though the current GFS is great for my area, but I like to see everyone else get snow).

But this is why you don't see the NWS or the TV Mets making big time snow and cold forecasts 5-7 days in advance.  Some people here are way too critical of them for not making cold and snowy forecasts that far in advance.  And I can't blame the Mets for being conservative.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[MWG]

What number of cancels we are at today? We have to get minimum 3 per day 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, MWG said:

What number of cancels we are at today? We have to get minimum 3 per day 

I think 16

[snow_wizard]

Wow this has gotten complicated all of a sudden.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Wow this has gotten complicated all of a sudden.

That's one way of putting it.

6z NAM in 2 hours 44 minutes

[FroYoBro]

I’m going to officially call it. 
 

Fall cancel. 

[MWG]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

I think 16

That's a record! 

[snow_wizard]

Turns out the operational is an absolute warm outlier in the ensemble on this run after the first cold shot which is pretty much a lock now.  Why couldn't this stay cut and dried for once.