November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[Gradient Keeper]

C'MON EPS!!!!

6z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes

[Kolk1604]

Now this is my kind of run 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

3rd trough brings 850s down to -8C and a bit of lowland snow. Nice to see but still just no clue as to what even happens in the first half of next week. 

If that run verifies I would call that a rip snorting start to winter!  Was not expecting this run!

[SouthHillFrosty]

My finance is a respiratory therapist at a hospital and they have to turn ppl away cause they have zero open beds

[Blizzard777]

39 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Is winter uncanceled?

This is the most reliable tool and the one I use since we never really know up till the very moment! 

[Nov1985]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

3rd trough brings 850s down to -8C and a bit of lowland snow. Nice to see but still just no clue as to what even happens in the first half of next week. 

Ya, for me this feels like the 4th winter in a row where it takes us to 48 to 72 hours out to really know what's coming. Events over the past three winters over-performed (for my location at least), so I'm optimistic about next week's mess. 

[gusky]

EPS in 40 min, don't know if I'm gonna make it that long...

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

This is the most reliable tool and the one I use since we never really know up till the very moment! 

Reminds me of the old saying… if a snowflake falls in the street light and the ensembles aren’t there to hear it, does it make a sound?

[snow_wizard]

EPS is better!

[Kolk1604]

At least we don't need this as a "pick me up" tonight!

EPS thru day 6 

[SnarkyGoblin]

22 minutes ago, administrator said:

Not really going anywhere because of this. Hippy in laws think that its just a strong cold that will build our baby's immunity, but so will MRSA. 

It's a NICU visit if the baby was a premie.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

This is the most reliable tool and the one I use since we never really know up till the very moment! 

Flashlights out the window for me since I do not have a streetlight. Works great, especially when the power is out like it was the morning of 12/30/21! 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least we don't need this as a "pick me up" tonight!

EPS thru day 6 

That trough slides through pretty slow at the end, I'm curious how much snow the EPS has.

[The Winter Warlock]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Didn’t start out too bad for my wife and I, but wow is it lingering. Though I’m sure it didn’t help that we also went COVID positive last week as well. It has stayed out of the lungs and kept to the neck up, but I have been coughing so much that I pulled a muscle, that was super fun! Been a roller coaster, one day I feel pretty good so I am outside doing things all day which causes the next day to be not so good. Hoping to be done with all of this by next week’s festivities! The kids had both as well but it was minor for them luckily. 

Day 10 here. Wife brought it home from school early last week, and I felt symptoms last Wednesday. Luckily our 11 month old seems unaffected.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

See that little green dot in a sea of blue, over TWL s house?

That's my south valley up in herre!!

[gusky]

WRF doesn't get enough love in this forum. For this run, anyone who wants snow should just go to Shilshole lol

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, gusky said:

WRF doesn't get enough love in this forum. For this run, anyone who wants snow should just go to Shilshole lol

I check it but it is usually not worth much.

[snow_wizard]

EPS goes to cold offshore flow after the potential snow period.

[SnowPlz]

1 minute ago, Archon said:

Day 10 here. Wife brought it home from school early last week, and I felt symptoms last Wednesday. Luckily our 11 month old seems unaffected.

My wife and I picked it up at SeaTac 2 weeks ago. She still can’t taste or smell anything. Both of us had low oxygen despite being booster recently. New variants are no joke. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

WRF doesn't get enough love in this forum. For this run, anyone who wants snow should just go to Shilshole lol

Ok Cliff

[yellowstone]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

WRF doesn't get enough love in this forum. For this run, anyone who wants snow should just go to Shilshole lol

This map is cursed! I’m in purple and still think this is the worst snow map I’ve ever seen. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Anybody have the uw wrf-gfs link? I lost it

[MossMan]

Just now, Archon said:

Day 10 here. Wife brought it home from school early last week, and I felt symptoms last Wednesday. Luckily our 11 month old seems unaffected.

So glad your 11mo old is okay. The uncontrollable coughing is the absolute worst part for me. I think I would have been fine by now if the added bonus of COVID didn’t strike as well. Felt like I was on the mend but then i suddenly felt super tired and I swear I had s nose of a dog that could smell anything from a mile away, that quickly went into no smell or taste so I tested myself and sure enough….I just hope to god that everyone stays healthy for a month or two at least. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just updated our November stats. Sitting at a 37.0 monthly mean. I think we may come in a little cooler than last January, if so this month would be cooler than any January since 2017. 

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

At least we don't need this as a "pick me up" tonight!

EPS thru day 6 

Not real cold, but not horrible. Just need a few notches ---> and that's not impossible.

[gusky]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Anybody have the uw wrf-gfs link? I lost it

GFS-Initialized Pacific Northwest WRF Weather Forecasts (washington.edu)

Go to top for extended

[gusky]

3 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

This map is cursed! I’m in purple and still think this is the worst snow map I’ve ever seen. 

It is definitely a bit of a head scratcher

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS is rock solid.

[Gradient Keeper]

What do 850s look like on EPS?

[Nov1985]

EPS mean snowfall through next Monday afternoon. Peak 24 hr snowfall probabilities for Seattle area are first half of Wednesday.

[SnarkyGoblin]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

It is definitely a bit of a head scratcher

Whatcom county gets hammered in the UW-GFS Maybe has a different model for the Fraser outflow?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

What do 850s look like on EPS?

 

[gusky]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

What do 850s look like on EPS?

Actually has it slightly colder at 850 for the Monday system weirdly

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So glad your 11mo old is okay. The uncontrollable coughing is the absolute worst part for me. I think I would have been fine by now if the added bonus of COVID didn’t strike as well. Felt like I was on the mend but then i suddenly felt super tired and I swear I had s nose of a dog that could smell anything from a mile away, that quickly went into no smell or taste so I tested myself and sure enough….I just hope to god that everyone stays healthy for a month or two at least. 

We are still recovering from whatever is going around.   I had avoided COVID but certain I had a week ago.   Still unusually tired too.

[Kolk1604]

Surface anomalies look solid too

[gusky]

6 min till EPS ensemble spreads drop!

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We are still recovering from whatever is going around.   I had avoided COVID but certain I had a week ago.   Still unusually tired too.

Something something something something something Seattle traffic cams something something something.

[SouthHillFrosty]

12 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

EPS mean snowfall through next Monday afternoon. Peak 24 hr snowfall probabilities for Seattle area are first half of Wednesday.

@Kolk1604 u see this shzt

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Surface anomalies look solid too

Major low level cold pool. Nice.

[Kolk1604]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

@Kolk1604 u see this shzt

Lol odds aren't on our side.