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November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

Iceresistance

By Iceresistance
in West of the Rockies

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Posted by smerfylicious,

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

Congrats!!!

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Posted by SouthHillJimmy,

Long time lurker here, decided to make an account and interact. This week will definitely be one hell of a ride!

Welcome Jimmy!

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted

Let's hope the EURO continues the faint hope down here

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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smerfylicious
smerfylicious

A nice day for a newborn. Here's bellevue from a delivery room. I'll keep yall posted

SilverFallsAndrew
SilverFallsAndrew

Ummm we had our first freeze… School delay, and 1.5” of snow. 

MossMan
MossMan

Phantom snow has begun! 

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Nov1985 Mentor

Nov1985

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Basically they read Cliff blog and decided to go conservative. That’s fine. 

I love the NWS staff and tell EVERYONE to only get there forecast from them. But IIRC, the conservative forecasts didn't do so well for the tightrope fine line forecasts for the past 3 years. I think there were some under-forecasted big snows for many areas in each of the past 3 winters since Feb 2019. 

Even if the conservative forecast wins tomorrow, 3 and 1 ain't a bad record for hopeful fine line snow over 4 seasons in the coastal PNW.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

ECMWF is behaving itself thus far.  If anything a tiny bit more favorable at hour 33 than previous runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Water is FROZEN outside.

People could still wear shorts though!

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
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Posted

The Euro looks better than its previous run overall, and better than the GFS from a 500mb height perspective.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I love the NWS staff and tell EVERYONE to only get there forecast from them. But IIRC, the conservative forecasts didn't do so well for the tightrope fine line forecasts for the past 3 years. I think there were some under-forecasted big snows for many areas in each of the past 3 winters since Feb 2019. 

Even if the conservative forecast wins tomorrow, 3 and 1 ain't a bad record for hopeful fine line snow over 4 seasons in the coastal PNW.

North half of King County will do fine tomorrow night.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I feel good about the ECMWF.  The center of the ULL barely goes offshore anymore.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

00z Euro Day 2:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

ECMWF is easily cold enough for snow by about 8z Wednesday night for snow in the Puget Sound area.  Colder than the 18z.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Wetter Wednesday night for my area as well.  OMG!  Could it really be?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted
Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 2.5 850s (4-run trend) Thursday trending colder!

trend-ecmwf_full-2022112900-f060.850th.us_nw.gif

Wow!

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  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
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Posted
12 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

We had a stone bird bath when I was a kid. There was water in it. It FROZE solid. Think this must have been 95 or 96. I had lots of fun breaking the ice in our pond with a hammer so we could feed the fish. I decided to break the ice in the bird bath so the birds could bathe. Made sense to me. I broke the ice. I also broke the bird bath. The end. 

My sister poured hot water on her Volvo’s windshield in January ‘93 and it broke. Winter is magical.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

00z GFS Day 3:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1
  • Shivering 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I'm in the 4 to 6 inch area on the ECMWF.  All when it's cold enough for sure!

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  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted

00z GFS Day 4:

image.png

4 Run Trend:

image.gif

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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gusky Veteran

gusky

Posted
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Posted

Essay done. Thanks for the help @Meatyorologist(:

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My Weather Station:  https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 

Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5.

My Twitter

 

 

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Meatyorologist Grand Master

Meatyorologist

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I'll take that 8.8 inches over me, highest EURO has shown yet! 1669831200-lVH4wlzrW30.png

Timing is sped up, and cold air dynamics are a bit better. Some 33/30 type spreads during heavy precip. Could get around 4-6" on the high end now IMO

  • Like 7

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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