November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[kokaneekidz]

39 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Kind of a weird AFD from Seattle NWS. Especially puzzling first part about less cold air than initially expected. Not sure why they would have expected anything more than we've already seen this evening.

Not as much cold air has moved into the area as initially
expected. The relatively warmer surface conditions will working
against lowland snow. It is not just temperatures that are working
against lowland snow, wind will also be a factor. Ahead of the
front the easterly winds will work to dry out low levels. As the
warm front moves through strong persistent southerlies will raise
snow and freezing levels up. Making the potential for lowland snow
decrease. That said, there is still the potential. With high
precipitation rates dragging cold air aloft down to the surface
there remains the potential for accumulating snow in the
lowlands.

Snow on the east side of the Olympic Peninsula and South
of the Olympic mountains could begin seeing snow during the period
of easterly winds ahead of the frontal system. This area will
likely transition over to rain as the warm front moves through.
However, additional snow is possible during heavier periods of
precipitation.

The big question mark in precipitation type is for the Seattle
metro area. Between the easterlies and southerlies the chance of
accumulating snow for the south end of the area is less likely.
For the north end precipitation rates could be strong enough that
areas do see some wet slushy accumulations. This is most likely on
the higher hills of the area. The north side of the Seattle metro
area will also have the potential for snow due to post frontal
convergence early Wednesday morning.

The lowland snow accumulation for north of the Seattle metro is
tricky. Snow levels are expected to only rise to 2000 feet briefly
during the early morning hours Wednesday. With the more
persistent cold air the chance of accumulation is more likely
particularly when it comes to the post frontal showers Wednesday
morning.

They took the high road and decided to talk it down vs big mouth jinxed it. I like this jedi mind trick route they have taken. TOP NOTCH INDEED!@@

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Light snow and 30 degrees here.

Have been checking outside occasionally to see if anything’s falling. It’s clouded up but haven’t seen any flakes here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

If only.

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I think they wrote that AFD just to see our reaction to it…They are probably all gathered around one of their computers laughing at our posts as we speak! 

[xfkirsten]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Ah... right in the aqua band. Thanks for letting me dream, Druncle.

[ShawniganLake]

26.6F here. Forecast is for 4-8” of snow tomorrow evening 

[kokaneekidz]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

If only.

The trouble with kuchera is its as if the snow never melts or sublimated upon landing on earth. I really want to move to kuchera land

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Gross

[Rubus Leucodermis]

27.5˚F.

[TacomaWx]

35/23 here now. 

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold just keeps on giving.  We are on a roll right now.  Coldest November in almost 30 years a lock now.

Looks like it will end up coldest since 1985 at OLM, and second coldest all-time!

[Cold Snap]

26/22 at my location.

[bainbridgekid]

Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue.

 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Looks like it will end up coldest since 1985 at OLM, and second coldest all-time!

We’re -3.9 MTD here. December will be off to a good start by the looks of it. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue.

 

Ocean Shores goes crazy 

[Gummy]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue.

 

 

By 4 A.M. it has changed to rain south of shoreline, and Hood Canal / Bellingham also? Okay.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Despite all the watches and advisories the NWS seems pretty hesitant to pull the trigger in their discussion. 

The north half of King County is golden tomorrow night IMO.  The south half is wait and see.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Meanwhile, this doesn't suck

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The WRF is bizarre, the "snow shadowed" areas follow the outflow. There's no way the current outflow is going to eat away all the snow, if anything it should enhance the precipitation shield. Victoria may get screwed tomorrow for other reasons but there's no way it will extend all the way up to Hope.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Here's how the WRF handles the Wednesday night/Thursday morning snow. 925mb temps are well below freezing at this time so temps wouldn't be an issue.

 

I-5 special.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The WRF is bizarre, the "snow shadowed" areas follow the outflow. There's no way the current outflow is going to eat away all the snow, if anything it should enhance the precipitation shield. Victoria may get screwed tomorrow for other reasons but there's no way it will extend all the way up to Hope.

WRF always does funny stuff. 

[TacomaWx]

It’s snowing here in Tacoma! 

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

We’re -3.9 MTD here. December will be off to a good start by the looks of it. 

My month to date average is 39.7.  Even here a November below 40 is a pretty big deal.

[bainbridgekid]

7 minutes ago, Gummy said:

 

By 4 A.M. it has changed to rain south of shoreline, and Hood Canal / Bellingham also? Okay.

 

That's Tuesday's storm. My post was about Wednesday night/Thursday morning's system which is a totally different setup.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Meanwhile, this doesn't suck

Big run to run change as well.  Good sign.

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Meanwhile, this doesn't suck

Better than the 18z looked!

[Hawksfan2008]

Very anxious for this EURO run!

[snow_wizard]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

That's Tuesday's storm. My post was about Wednesday night/Thursday morning's system which is a totally different setup.

I'm really liking the looks of Wednesday night for this area.

[Deweydog]

Water is FROZEN outside.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1 - until further notice King EURO has been demoted and removed from the royal throne. He has to show the goods and then shall be restored as the King.

[Snownerd3000]

Got to say, the collective hive mind here is much appreciated. Always see new details or perspectives highlighted.

[Hawksfan2008]

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro Day 0 (Init):

4 Run Trend:

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That thing is flying!!

[Meatyorologist]

Sorry Rob! You want the Euro tonight?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

WRF always does funny stuff. 

It has some weird terrain issues, I've seen it do this with downsloping on the west side of the cascades too when the winds are more easterly and it leaves a gaping snow hole there. It's pretty bad for a model that's supposedly designed to account for our complicated terrain.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Sorry Rob! You want the Euro tonight?

Nope, please go ahead. Make it yet ANOTHER good run for the night!

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

00z Euro Day 0 (Init):

4 Run Trend:

This looks like it's moved a bit east 

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Water is FROZEN outside.

We had a stone bird bath when I was a kid. There was water in it. It FROZE solid. Think this must have been 95 or 96. I had lots of fun breaking the ice in our pond with a hammer so we could feed the fish. I decided to break the ice in the bird bath so the birds could bathe. Made sense to me. I broke the ice. I also broke the bird bath. The end.