November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

Pretty awesome tonight watching it snow a bit outside while watching the models run. Things are looking pretty good right now. Not a fan of the trend with the low going up far enough north to kinda scour out the cold air here and in BC (from an 850mb perspective still chilly at the surface) but I’ll always take short term improvements and hope the stuff down the road trends better. 

I don't think anything was worse tonight.

[RentonHill]

[Perturbed Member]

3 minutes ago, Requiem said:

What a sadistic run for PDX lol

100 miles further south and that low would probably get the job done. Still enough time for it to change.

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro Day 6:

4 Run Trend:

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Man that low track is going to have to be perfect for PDX snow on Friday

The low track isn’t all that critical. The air mass just isn’t particularly cold.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't think anything was worse tonight.

Pretty good set up for a reload. Stays pretty chilly throughout. That’s probably the only little thing I could nitpick overall this is very good stuff tonight. 

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no vested in NW King County for FWIW.  I really think that area does well tomorrow night.

I envision a very tight gradient somewhere around Shoreline give or take ~10 miles with 3-5" North of that line and T-2" South of it. Feeling quite good about my chances here in South Everett.

[MossMan]

[smerfylicious]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I have no vested in NW King County for FWIW.  I really think that area does well tomorrow night.

If you miss out and need a snow fix, I have some leftover turkey and a warm place. Happy to share sometime!

[Nov1985]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what is your preferred rapid 1 hour hi res model?

In my post earlier, I think the HRRR hour-old run was 5° too warm with dew point too low by 4.5 for my coordinates.

[snow_wizard]

That thing early next week really looks interesting on this run.

[Slushy Inch]

How early is this thing supposed to start? This looks odd.

 

[MossMan]

24.9

[TacomaWx]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How early is this thing supposed to start? This looks odd.

We’ve been getting flurries here on and off for the last hour. Gonna start late tomorrow morning for real. 

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

100 miles further south and that low would probably get the job done. Still enough time for it to change.

I definitely think there's a chance (how much ever slim) for some excitement down here but it definitely feels like a real bummer of a situation. Sorta like February 2019 without the east side snow on that one day. 

Still could change and crossing my fingers for it 

[RentonHill]

Just now, MossMan said:

24.9

Wow that’s pretty cold! Especially for someone who lives at sea level next to the freeway 

[smerfylicious]

Just now, MossMan said:

24.9

Got me beat by .4 degrees! This is the difference in how you always score

[Nov1985]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

100 miles further south and that low would probably get the job done. Still enough time for it to change.

Plenty of time the way things have been going run to run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ohhhh

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what is your preferred rapid 1 hour hi res model?

Nowcast and Streetlight Watching. 

[joelgombiner]

Just now, 12345WeatherNerd said:

How early is this thing supposed to start? This looks odd.

Video.mov

The main system is not here yet, but I think there is some minor convergence (?) going on on the SE side of the Olympics near Tacoma. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't think anything was worse tonight.

The 00Z Euro came in slightly colder and snowier (and earlier with the timing) IMBY.

[SouthHillFrosty]

So it begins 

[HuskyMaestro]

Running on 4 hours of sleep cause of school so I can’t stay for the night shift but this was worth it. I’m liking what I’m seeing with the trends, all I needed to know for a comfy sleep tonight.  

[TacomaWx]

Euros trying to drop the hammer.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Ohhhh

Snohhhh???

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro Day 7:

4 Run Trend:

[Gradient Keeper]

If we just had block support after Day 7 we would see a frigid blast... IF. ALMOST. COULD BE. PERHAPS. MAYBE.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

So it begins 

That’s gotta be a good sign 

[Meatyorologist]

We are talking some minor adjustments and bam, that is a great snap. Some favorable adjustments would include the very same ones that almost ruined this week.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

If we just had block support the next after Day 7 we would see a frigid blast... IF. ALMOST. COULD BE. PERHAPS. MAYBE.

Pretty darn close but just not quite. Still a very exciting good run. Plenty of time for things to change a week from now. 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If we just had block support the next after Day 7 we would see a frigid blast... IF. ALMOST. COULD BE. PERHAPS. MAYBE.

PLENTY of time for this to happen. Oh so very close. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looking a little more active tonight than anticipated 

@TacomaWx

[bainbridgekid]

Wet Bulb temps (halfway between temp and DP) will be important to watch because they give a good idea how much evaporative cooling may be possible. Plenty of wiggle room from Seattle North right now. Seems like a setup where temps will rise into the mid-upper 30's late morning before the moisture gets here but drop down to freezing fairly quick once things pick up later in the day.

BLI: 18.5

Everett: 24.5

SEA: 26.5

OLM: 29

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

So it begins 

Haven’t had any accumulation like that so far tonight but it’s been snowing for almost an hour very lightly. 

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

If we just had block support after Day 7 we would see a frigid blast... IF. ALMOST. COULD BE. PERHAPS. MAYBE.

Hopefully the EPS will show more block support.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Really need to see some improvements on the EPS tonight for day 6 and beyond

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We are talking some minor adjustments and bam, that is a great snap. Some favorable adjustments would include the very same ones that almost ruined this week.

Exactly, and let's not gloss over the obvious shift east at HR 24-48. If that continues things will be a bit colder yet Tuesday night-Saturday. Jet suppression would help too!

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I envision a very tight gradient somewhere around Shoreline give or take ~10 miles with 3-5" North of that line and T-2" South of it. Feeling quite good about my chances here in South Everett.

That sounds reasonable.

[Nov1985]

25.9° / 24.7° here -- Let's ride!