November 2022 PNW weather Discussion. #NoRidgeNovember

[snow_wizard]

Nice looking run!

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, gusky said:

Essay done. Thanks for the help @Meatyorologist

I never actually banned you. The discipline came from within 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z ECMWF has the Friday low coming in well north of the 18z. Bummer. 

It sinks south of PDX

[gusky]

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

[Cloud]

All hail Prince GFS! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Is the Euro caving……

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

00z ECMWF has the Friday low coming in well north of the 18z. Bummer. 

I think it will come out fine.

[Weiner Warrior]

[gusky]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I never actually banned you. The discipline came from within 

Haha, well played. 

[Nov1985]

2M temps

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Timing is sped up, and cold air dynamics are a bit better. Some 33/30 type spreads during heavy precip. Could get around 4-6" on the high end now IMO

I realize it won't reach 8.8 depth.

[Meatyorologist]

The Euro may try here

[Cloud]

Snowier over the weekend as well

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, gusky said:

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

I've seen enough of these.  I probably get screwed tomorrow night while NW King County gets the goods.  I'm thrilled about the prospects for here Wednesday night and Thursday though.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

I'll take that 8.8 inches over me, highest EURO has shown yet! 

Yuck, that Olympic shadow is brutal. The GFS would have this area at 2~4" of accumulation in Victoria, while the ECMWF and WRF have effectively zero snowfall. At least the ECMWF actually looks reasonable over the Fraser Valley.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

Ignore it. HRRR is out of wack with marginal stratoform events. It was spitting out 40/34 type spreads in the midst of the 12/24/2017 snow event...while it was snowing...

[RentonHill]

Last 3 runs snowier for 24 hour period saturday

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

It sinks south of PDX

It does but almost all the precip is done just as it gets cold enough and the low is far enough south. This track will result in lots of wet snow and rain/snow mix but little to no accumulation. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

30 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Like a claw scooping up cold from Alaska and stretching out to scratch us with its cold talons.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Meatyorologist]

00z Euro Day 5:

4 Run Trend:

[Snownerd3000]

1 minute ago, gusky said:

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

This ran warmer and higher dew points today. Think it's off. 

[Weiner Warrior]

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Perturbed Member said:

It does but almost all the precip is done just as it gets cold enough and the low is far enough south. This track will result in lots of wet snow and rain/snow mix but little to no accumulation. 

Yeah temps 34-36, but with that east wind I have to wonder. If the runs continue to trend colder the next 48 hours that too could make all the difference.

[snow_wizard]

Actually an insanely good run.  Shaping up to be an extraordinary event for early December.

[Requiem]

What a sadistic run for PDX lol

[Meatyorologist]

hmmmmmm

[SnowWillarrive]

5 minutes ago, gusky said:

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

HRRR is Garbage 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Yeah temps 34-36, but with that east wind I have to wonder. If the runs continue to trend colder the next 48 hours that too could make all the difference.

I think you guys are still in the running.  Anything south of Portland would be a real stretch though.

[smerfylicious]

Down to 25/23 here. Cozy.

[Cloud]

5 minutes ago, gusky said:

Last few HRRR runs have not been promising for snow, each has a switch to rain occuring sooner.

One thing is will say about the HRRR is that it was a fun model when it first came out. But then when it start to show little to no consistency, people tend to ignore it. 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ignore it. HRRR is out of wack with marginal stratoform events. It was spitting out 40/34 type spreads in the midst of the 12/24/2017 snow event...while it was snowing...

what is your preferred rapid 1 hour hi res model?

[Meatyorologist]

This run looks super good for the weekend. Might actually become a thing now

[snow_wizard]

I have no vested in NW King County for FWIW.  I really think that area does well tomorrow night.

[TacomaWx]

Pretty awesome tonight watching it snow a bit outside while watching the models run. Things are looking pretty good right now. Not a fan of the trend with the low going up far enough north to kinda scour out the cold air here and in BC (from an 850mb perspective still chilly at the surface) but I’ll always take short term improvements and hope the stuff down the road trends better. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

hmmmmmm

 

[Phishy Wx]

HRRR sniffed out the 3" I got today when all other short term models were showing little to nothing, maybe a 1/2"

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This run looks super good for the weekend. Might actually become a thing now

I've had a feeling about that for a couple of days.  The block moves into a nice position.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Man that low track is going to have to be perfect for PDX snow on Friday

[Nov1985]

4p Friday to 4am Sunday, 24-hr Kuchera snowfall