Karl Bonner Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 It's been very impressive. Of course, the difference between average highs and record highs now is smaller than most of the rest of the year. 1921 and 1949 are probably the closest to what we've seen to start this month in many places. November 1949 was followed 2 1/2 months later, by the coldest arctic blast ever recorded at DLS airport, down to -25F. I'm amazed you brought up the difference between average and record highs at this time of year. Huge bonus if you can explain why the gap is small in late fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Don't mention 1980-81 around Jim. That's the Achilles heel of our analogs this year, along with 1933-34. And 1966-67. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Don't mention 1980-81 around Jim. That's the Achilles heel of our analogs this year, along with 1933-34. 1980-81 is the only one that worries me at all. The context was much different with 1933-34. 1999-2000 was the second year of a strong La Nina so it's far from being an analog. No doubt history is on our side. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 And 1966-67. 1966-67 featured anomalous troughing over the GOA June - Oct....total opposite of this year. No real November torch either. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 00z GFS....Begins in 1 minute....I'd be just fine if this is anything like 12z. Cooler, NW flow, mountain snows. I don't want to see it warmer/ridging like the 12z ECMWF showed. Real slim chance we'll see any blocking this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 850s drop over 10 degrees over the next two days. Chill out dude! Sheesh.I'm chill. It is what it is. We look to start cooling down close to average by Tuesday. Unless the models continue to push things back of course. It was looking like tomorrow would be the last torchy day for awhile there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 It was a clear, mild evening with a slight breeze in Portland, but socked in in Tigard once I hit exit 294 and dropped into Fanno Creek valley. I doubt they burned off much today. Currently 50 with some pea soup out there. Very dense fog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 The middle of next week will be a definite shock to the system up here... High of 70 today. Looks like mid-40s at best by then. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 I like the 00z GFS through hour 288. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 I like the 00z GFS through hour 288. Pretty nice run tonight. Some serious negative PNA for a good part of the run. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Looks like a few good soakers showing up on the again. Easily going to be one of the wettest Oct / Nov combos on record. Another good sign. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 00z GFS is definitely a bit of an improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 SEA had 23.3" in 2008-09. Their total in 1996-97 would have been around the same. I think around 9" in November 1996, 13" in December 1996, and 1" in March 1997. I think they had more in December and less in November, but either way about the same total. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 I think they had more in December and less in November, but either way about the same total. They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation. They also recorded 7" officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred. Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX. Good times. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX. Good times.Perfect weather for a riot apparently 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation. They also recorded 7" officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred. Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= Well, I know that in Tacoma we got 3-4" with the initial December storm before it turned to ice (and compacted). Then about 9" with the second storm before it quickly turned to rain and compacted/melted. In general, places further north got more snow. Given that, and the general nature of the snow that fell - rapid compaction - I don't think the max snow depth is that close to what they got altogether. Probably more like 15-16" in December, and the 7-8" in November. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Perfect weather for a riot apparentlyDid you know global warming causes riots? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Well, I know that in Tacoma we got 3-4" with the initial December storm before it turned to ice (and compacted). Then about 9" with the second storm before it quickly turned to rain and compacted/melted. In general, places further north got more snow. Given that, and the general nature of the snow that fell - rapid compaction - I don't think the max snow depth is that close to what they got altogether. Probably more like 15-16" in December, and the 7-8" in November. Judging from the obs/depths, that seems pretty close to what SEA got as well. The 12/26/1996 storm seemed to have a really sharp freezing rain/snow cutoff right around Downtown Seattle. The station just north of downtown measured 22.5" that month and even Sandpoint had about 18". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Did you know global warming causes riots?Had I known that a long time ago I would have fought it. I always though the pnw was a tad cold anyways and thought we could use an extra degree or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Perfect weather for a riot apparentlyWe could really use a 1955 repeat right meow. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 60 degrees at 10pm on a partly cloudy November 10th at PDX. Good times. 62 degrees here at 11 p.m. with a bright moon shining. Many clear summer nights are not this warm. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Looks like a good mountain snow pattern next week. Time for winter to start here... season ski passes need to be put to use soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 High of 71 today in Klamath Falls. This breaks the previous record of 63 in 2013. Smashed by 8 degrees! And this is now the 3rd day in a row to break record highs. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Certainly some nice height and pressure rises over the GOA next week, but the details still keep things from getting really cold. On the other hand it's very possible we will begin seeing some highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s next week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 They have snow depth data from that winter which gives a pretty good approximation. They also recorded 7" officially on 11/19/1996. That was a nice, somewhat forgotten wet snowstorm for pretty much all of western WA. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/11/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= And then their depth in the December event peaked at 10" on 12/29, which I'd assume was slightly less than their snow total for the 12/26/-12/29 period since some melting occurred. Downtown Seattle actually did better than SEA with that event. https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KSEA/1996/12/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=&req_state=&req_statename=&reqdb.zip=&reqdb.magic=&reqdb.wmo= The Nov 1996 snow event was pretty nice. I still remember that one clearly. I had about 7 inches at my place and remember it being cold enough for icicles during the afternoon of the day it fell. A few days earlier I had driven up to Whatcom County and was amazed how rapidly the snow depth increased from Bellingham to Lynden. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Certainly some nice height and pressure rises over the GOA next week, but the details still keep things from getting really cold. On the other hand it's very possible we will begin seeing some highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s next week. At face value not even that close to snow at my elevation, but a step in the right direction. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 ECMWF and GFS both continue to show improvement on the PNA forecast and the analogs to the 6z GFS were excellent. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 White Christmas. You heard it here first folks. God bless America! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Given I will be out of state December 14-22 I would say that is probably a time to keep an eye on. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Pretty unbelievable that PDX couldn't fall below 50 on a clear and calmish night in early-mid November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Pretty unbelievable that PDX couldn't fall below 50 on a clear and calmish night in early-mid November.What is PDX running so far in November? Must be crazy high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 What is PDX running so far in November? Must be crazy high.I haven't even looked. It would probably take a solidly below normal second half of the month to avoid an all-time warm November, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Today, the CFSv2 monthly has cold focused on the PNW for December, everywhere else is warm! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Today, the CFSv2 monthly has cold focused on the PNW for December, everywhere else is warm! Have any maps we can see? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Have any maps we can see?Yeah, this is what I look at almost daily. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 The 12z GFS is a bit of a turd sandwich. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 Given I will be out of state December 14-22 I would say that is probably a time to keep an eye on.December 17th-January 2nd for me. Mark it down. Take a picture. The second half if December will be epic in the PNW. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 The 12z GFS is a bit of a turd sandwich. Not much different from previous runs really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 11, 2016 Report Share Posted November 11, 2016 December 17th-January 2nd for me. Mark it down. Take a picture. The second half if December will be epic in the PNW. I thought about it. If I had been gone December 14-22, 2008 I would have essentially missed everything. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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