November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Weather101]

Snow or na?

[Bryant]

Snow or na?

 

Snow or North America? 

[MossMan]

33 degrees currently!

[Weather101]

[Gradient Keeper]

6z !!! Real chilly maritime air mass. Very low snow levels. If the pattern would just slow down we would tap into modified arctic air. Promising. Ski Resorts will be buried.

[Tyler Mode]

Hit 32 last night.  Finally.  First freezing temperature in 233 days.

Latest first freeze for me in Battle Ground and also the longest growing season.

[westcoastexpat]

The wood stove feels so good tonight. I've been waiting for that.

 

That explains all the warm anomalies over the last few years.

 

#carbonfootprint

[luvssnow_spokane]

OMG!  I got down to 32.7 last night. Looks frosty outside.... It feels like it has been forever!!!

[Front Ranger]

I said this previously to someone else.... pics for the less fortunate!

 

Posted a couple in the mountain west thread.

[Front Ranger]

Arlington hit 27 this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I only got down to 34 before the clouds and offshore flow kicked in. Woke up to 42. 

[chopper 918]

Got down to a bone chilling 41!

[stuffradio]

I got down to 30.

[Jesse]

First chilly east winds of the season this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the Sierras are going to get some good snow in week two...

[Abbotsford_wx]

Only 39 here. Still waiting for my first frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

500-1000' snow levels at Hour 300!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

[Guest Winterdog]

29.8F at 2:45am then clouds moved in.  3rd subfreezing reading this fall.  Whoopee!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hour 384 looks like a giant GOA trough is about to throw up a death ridge over the west coast in about 2-3 days...

[stuffradio]

Hour 384 looks like a giant GOA trough is about to throw up a death ridge over the west coast in about 2-3 days...

Is it hour 384 or 2-3 days? I can't tell!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is it hour 384 or 2-3 days? I can't tell!

 

2-3 days past hour 384...Obviously it does not matter at this point. 

[Sometimesdylan]

Big if true

[stuffradio]

Weird, today's CFSv2 monthly for December has cold anomalies down to the Canada/US border, and stops there. It was more up and down the US west coast yesterday or the day before for December.

[Jesse]

Pretty Nina-ish pattern appears to be on the way. It's been too long!

[Bryant]

When you have an index which isn't filtered, these are the kind of results you get. Any type of noise will interfere. This is why RMM MJO models are garbage. MJO cannot simply put on the breaks and throw itself into reverse.

 

http://i.imgur.com/mptSEsQ.jpg

[Bryant]

Week 3 in the following image is what I've had my eye on for weeks now. The wave is propagating a bit slower than I expected, but not by much. Forcing over the Maritime this time of year promotes blocking over the Pacific with downstream troughs over the West

 

http://i.imgur.com/7WFrSAR.jpg

[Brennan]

I’m personally looking forward to NW flow and 2000 foot snow levels. Seems like it’s been forever since we’ve seen this type of pattern. If my memory serves me right this is the type of pattern we often times have leading into colder and potentially snowier weather. #MymemoryplusBryant’sscience=definitesnowearlyDecember.

[Gradient Keeper]

I’m personally looking forward to NW flow and 2000 foot snow levels. Seems like it’s been forever since we’ve seen this type of pattern. If my memory serves me right this is the type of pattern we often times have leading into colder and potentially snowier weather. #MymemoryplusBryant’sscience=definitesnowearlyDecember.

Yep, and I like where the 12z EURO is going after day 10.

 

Colder runs ahead - MBG

[Kayla]

Amazing snow totals for the mountains showing up on the 12z ECMWF this morning. 4-7ft over the next 7-8 days up and down the Cascade range.

 

Interesting thing to note - At face value this run shows snow levels dipping down to ~1000ft and even lower closer to the Gorge on Thanksgiving morning. A very strong cold front with heavy precip rates draws 850mb temps of around -2c all the way down to nearly the surface. Areas at or above 1000ft pick up 6-8" of snowfall in a 6 hour period Thanksgiving morning. Could be some tough traveling to Grandmothers house over the coast range, west hills or through the gorge!

 

A little tweak here or there and we could have a region wide snowstorm on our hands. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

[Timmy]

Yep, and I like where the 12z EURO is going after day 10.

 

Colder runs ahead - MBG

Doesn't it only go out 10 days?

[Timmy]

Amazing snow totals for the mountains showing up on the 12z ECMWF this morning. 4-7ft over the next 7-8 days up and down the Cascade range.

 

Interesting thing to note - At face value this run shows snow levels dipping down to ~1000ft and even lower closer to the Gorge on Thanksgiving morning. A very strong cold front with heavy precip rates draws 850mb temps of around -2c all the way down to nearly the surface. Areas at or above 1000ft pick up 6-8" of snowfall in a 6 hour period Thanksgiving morning. Could be some tough traveling to Grandmothers house over the coast range, west hills or through the gorge!

 

A little tweak here or there and we could have a region wide snowstorm on our hands. Definitely something to keep an eye on!

sounds good to me!

[Gradient Keeper]

Doesn't it only go out 10 days?

Extrapolating. I like that bomb moving northeast along the Kamchatka Peninsula. Ridge pumping up ahead of it. Much colder air may finally be moving to our side of the Hemisphere too.

[Bryant]

I’m personally looking forward to NW flow and 2000 foot snow levels. Seems like it’s been forever since we’ve seen this type of pattern. If my memory serves me right this is the type of pattern we often times have leading into colder and potentially snowier weather. #MymemoryplusBryant’sscience=definitesnowearlyDecember.

Lol @ that hashtag

[luvssnow_spokane]

Extrapolating. I like that bomb moving northeast along the Kamchatka Peninsula. Ridge pumping up ahead of it. Much colder air may finally be moving to our side of the Hemisphere too.

Interesting you say that as I was noticing the very same thing. I will be watching for that. I am still sticking my guns that we will be more likely receive our (more serious/substantial) region-wide snow event toward mid-December, but the progression does show promise... Such a nice change over the last few years! HUGE difference!

[Kayla]

sounds good to me!

 

Yours, Andrew and my location would definitely see snow flying if this run were to verify. With that said, I'll believe it when I see it. Pretty rare to see snow that low with 850 temps of only -2c but it is forecasting some crazy precip rates to draw the cold air down. A lot of things will need to align for this to actually verify.

[Gradient Keeper]

Root for blocking!  ..... It feels a bit like Winter out here with the east wind really gusty and has ramped up further the past 10-15 minutes out here near west Gresham.

[stuffradio]

Doesn't it only go out 10 days?

The meteogram only goes out to 10 days.

[GobBluth]

Pretty Nina-ish pattern appears to be on the way. It's been too long!

I like that long range Euro.

[catnip]

Does anyone know of Euro maps that show precip/snow besides Weatherbell?

 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

 

You can select the Euro under model data.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Oh, I thought Wunderground got rid of model data - Good news that it's back! Thanks!

They brought it back about a month ago. Buggy and slow but it gets the job done.