Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Uh. By the looks of it, the gfs may be back. Out to hour 234 and we look to be in business again. Kona low, amplified ridge, cold air to the north. 12 z may have been a flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Uh. By the looks of it, the gfs may be back. Out to hour 234 and we look to be in business again. Kona low, amplified ridge, cold air to the north. 12 z may have been a flop.#drunkuncle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looking good. Stronger Kona Low, healthier block, stronger Aleutian Low, colder in BC. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Good LORD Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Figured the longer-range was "interesting" enough to dust off my homemade teleconnection index. Definite signs of an AK ridge/PNW trough in the longer range. Still a lot of disagreement on how amplified the pattern gets with ensembles generally weaker than operationals for the 12z runs. GFS ensemble the least suggestive of arctic air moving southward through BC and into the interior west while there's better agreement between the Euro ensemble and CMC ensemble. Generally we start to consider an arctic blast once there's good agreement for -2 or lower, with a significant blast possible at around -3. Still a good amount of time for things to change. Index is a comparison between modeled 500 mb height at Anchorage and Salem compared to climatology with the results normalized. If the 500 mb heights are the same as climatology the index is 0.0. 2 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 #ReddingtoEugeneSnowStorm http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_47.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I love the looks of the Kona low. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Prudent thing to do at this point would be to not run the GFS for the next 12 days. Can't trend warmer if they don't turn it on. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 GFS ALERT?!It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Also, the 18z just stabbed January in the heart and violated its lifeless corpse. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Incoming!!!! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_51.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Pretty cold run. Interesting the 12z control model also looked like that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.This type of sarcasm works for about two members on this board. Otherwise it's just annoying and too many people are using it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Well this run starts snow at my location around hour 228. So next Monday night... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Member that time 18z showed multiple blasts and snow, and it wasn't an outlier? I member..... Don't member rather. Nice to see the progression sped up well before day 10 nonetheless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying.I hope you don't think that is what I'm saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's pointless. Our climate is so far gone it has zero chance of verifying. Things must have changed a lot in the last 3 years lol. So 10-25-50 year type events suddenly won't happen anymore? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 20 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Prudent thing to do at this point would be to not run the GFS for the next 12 days. Can't trend warmer if they don't turn it on.I'm all for it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Well this run starts snow at my location around hour 228. So next Monday night...We'll be there. Should we bring anything? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 We'll be there. Should we bring anything?Chains. You won't be able to get there otherwise. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Member that time 18z showed multiple blasts and snow, and it wasn't an outlier? I member..... Don't member rather. Nice to see the progression sped up well before day 10 nonetheless. If it happens it will probably be on a sped up time frame. This run was bloody cold. Thickness dropped to about 507 for Seattle. The analogs should be crazy on this one. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Holy macaroni. 499 thickness in Abbotsford on the drunk uncle! I've never seen it get that cold for around here.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Models were showing a frost potential tonight just a few days ago. Looks pretty obvious things are going to be chillier this coming week. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Holy macaroni. 499 thickness in Abbotsford on the drunk uncle! I've never seen it get that cold for around here..Makes sense considering Abbotsford is no longer known for its Heat. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This type of sarcasm works for about two members on this board. Otherwise it's just annoying and too many people are using it.No, it's annoying when any member does it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Looks pretty obvious things are going to be chillier this coming week.This week was looking that way too. Dangling carrots get annoying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 If it happens it will probably be on a sped up time frame. This run was bloody cold. Thickness dropped to about 507 for Seattle. The analogs should be crazy on this one.Why would it speed up? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 18z Composite AnalogsThis is by far the best we've seen yet. Also, for the first time the 6-10 Day improved dramatically. Yes, the correlation score needs work. However, the 8-14 Day is incredibly incredible. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 18z ensembles look decent! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 No, it's annoying when any member does it.Been a lot of negative Nancy's around here lately. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Major ensemble improvement. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Composite analogs are meaningless. They change daily along with their meanings. I believe they're worse than the cfs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Major ensemble improvement. Indeed. The entire long range is cool to cold. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Makes sense considering Abbotsford is no longer known for its Heat.This kind of sarcasm to me is hilarious... always has been. My wife catches me cracking up and asks what i'm laughing at and she doesn't get it.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 How brutal.... Happens a lot.... It's only one run though, and dozen or so to go before day 10A wall probably has been built there to keep the arctic air from coming into our country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 18z GFS EnsemblesPortland, SeattleVancouver, British ColumbiaPrince George, British Columbia Shocking. Yes, the operational was an outlier, however18z 850mb Ensembles probably the best yet for the GFS that is. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Prince_George_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 This kind of sarcasm to me is hilarious... always has been. My wife catches me cracking up and asks what i'm laughing at and she doesn't get it..Makes me laugh too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. ThanksPortland: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattle: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver, Ca: http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Or hop over to the model section at http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ and check out the GEFS,GEPS, or EPS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Will someone put the link for the ensembles here please. I'm still using nomads, Jim littles, and they look far different. ThanksPortlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.pngSeattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngVancouver, BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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