December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Jim is going to have a brain overload. Tim will say the sun will be out.

Tim will post pics of cherry blossoms in Covington.

[Sometimesdylan]

Still looks cold up here. No surprise to you guys I'm sure. Gonna be interesting to see if any of these lows that approach SE AK next week will be able to fight their way to land or just get beat down by the ridge.

 

Currently 40 degrees.

[The Swamp]

This ECMWF run is actually colder than 00z in WA/OR, thanks to a stronger upstream wavebreak. That said, it also has a somewhat longer, more progressive waveguide overall, which is closer to the GFS depiction to some extent. However, it handles the wavebreak itself very differently than the GFS, which is very important when it comes to the initial shot of polar air.

In the ECMWF we trust!

[Deweydog]

This ECMWF run is actually colder than 00z in WA/OR, thanks to a stronger upstream wavebreak. That said, it also has a somewhat longer, more progressive waveguide overall, which is closer to the GFS depiction to some extent. However, it handles the wavebreak itself very differently than the GFS, which is very important when it comes to the initial shot of polar air.

Really tentative setup, even early on. It'd be pretty f*cked up awesome if we pulled anything like it off without any full latitude blocking.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have heard Gorton may be coming ashore soon to give us a pep talk... DJ?

He s attending to some personal stuff right now

[The Swamp]

Tim will post pics of cherry blossoms in Covington.

I will post green grass photos from the swamp.

[Phil]

Still looks cold up here. No surprise to you guys I'm sure. Gonna be interesting to see if any of these lows that approach SE AK next week will be able to fight their way to land or just get beat down by the ridge.

 

Currently 40 degrees.

Well, your gain will be everyone else's loss, so be careful!

[Heavy Snow]

The trend is our friend again. Always fantastic to have KING EURO on our side!

[Timmy]

What is the euro saying for snow Sunday and Monday? Still cold enough with precip for 1000' snow levels? Anyone have the snowfall map for then?

[FroYoBro]

Wow. The wait was worth it for the Euro. It shows Portland getting tons of snow and staying cold for a much longer time. 

 

The great battle between the Euro and GFS begins again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is the euro saying for snow Sunday and Monday? Still cold enough with precip for 1000' snow levels? Anyone have the snowfall map for then?

Yes. I saw it on one of the fb groups. Easily 2 -5 in for us

[Phil]

Really tentative setup, even early on. It'd be pretty f*cked up awesome if we pulled anything like it off without any full latitude blocking.

Yeah, the westward-biased longitude of the wavebreak and tropical forcing/WAFs are why I've been on the conservative side so far. Though as I'm sure everyone knows, the smaller mesoscale stuff isn't my strong suit, so take my thoughts with a grain of salt.

[Bodhijr]

I have heard Gorton may be coming ashore soon to give us a pep talk... DJ?

I read in his facebook group that a close relative was ill. So he might be away for awhile. This is just my assumption, I don't know for sure. Just thought I would give a heads up.

[Codyjack]

Not going to buy into this until "PaulB" from Eugene gives us the NOGAPS analysis.

[Kayla]

Wow. The wait was worth it for the Euro. It shows Portland getting tons of snow and staying cold for a much longer time. 

 

The great battle between the Euro and GFS begins again!

 

Wide area of 6-8" of snowfall for the PDX metro area while never really getting above freezing throughout the end of the run.

 

Impressive run. 

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z EURO shows a modified Arctic Blast coming next Wednesday followed by a system coming ashore Wednesday night/Thursday morning while still having negative 850mb temps. Looks like another L forms right off the coastline Thursday morning. Hopefully this tracks south to pull colder air in behind it. Then another snow storm on Saturday.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120112/144/850tw.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120112/168/850tw.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120112/168/sfcmslp.conus.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120112/216/sfcmslp.conus.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro gives SLE a low of 21 Wednesday morning

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2008

[Phil]

Haha, the 12z ECMWF is a coast to coast icebox in the extended range. Literally no positive anomalies anywhere in the lower 48.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Haha, the 12z ECMWF is a coast to coast icebox in the extended range. Literally no positive anomalies anywhere in the lower 48.

Drudge posted a link lol

[luminen]

All I can say is, is that I'm glad I don't live in Roseburg. One the worst non-coastal locations for snow in the PNW. That, and my old hometown near Aurora. 

[Bryant]

Where are those Euro snowfall maps?

[The Swamp]

All I can say is, is that I'm glad I don't live in Roseburg. One the worst non-coastal locations for snow in the PNW. That, and my old hometown near Aurora.

The Puyallup of Oregon?

[bainbridgekid]

Euro spits out 6" for PDX and subfreezing highs Thursday-Saturday.

 

Really doubt things come together as perfectly as the Euro shows, but it sure would be sweet.

[van city]

Here's one.

[Bryant]

 

Where are those Euro snowfall maps?

 

Thank you

[Brennan]

I miss Dj dropping already....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro shows 12"+ at my place next week...We'll see...IDK why I am so pessimistic in these situations...I am like the opposite of Jim.

[van city]

I miss Dj dropping already....

Yeah, the best weather play by play.

[Brennan]

Euro shows 12"+ at my place next week...We'll see...IDK why I am so pessimistic in these situations...I am like the opposite of Jim.

You think you're pessimistic... Think about how people feel who live at Sea-level in way less favorable locations. Be thankful. 

[Brennan]

Yeah, the best weather play by play.

He's like Dave Niehaus with the mic. 

[Heavy Snow]

 

Where are those Euro snowfall maps?

 

 

Wow! The models are now trending colder and snowier each run. 

[Randyc321]

You think you're pessimistic... Think about how people feel who live at Sea-level in way less favorable locations. Be thankful. 

Bainbridge Island. Sea level.  Well basically sea level.  Great place to live.  Not so great for snow.

[stuffradio]

Today's 12Z EPSGram trended slightly colder in thickness at YVR. It bottomed out at 520 at the 00z run, and the 12z run dips slightly below to something like 518 for Monday/Tuesday.

[Bryant]

You think you're pessimistic... Think about how people feel who live at Sea-level in way less favorable locations. Be thankful. 

 

Exactly 

[BLI snowman]

18z looks a touch cooler and juicier with the low on Monday. Nice setup for Seattle north.

[MossMan]

Snohomish county gets smacked on the 18z run on Monday. 9 inches for Everett.

I love our drunk uncle!!

In other news it's still raining!! Thinking about jetsking in my lower field! Currently 42 degrees.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snohomish county gets smacked on the 18z run on Monday. 9 inches for Everett.

Giant Puyallup/Bonney Lake "screw you" zone on that map... NICE!   <_ fricken olympic mountains time>

[Deweydog]

GFS still doesn't like the idea of a more amplified backdoor transition for the trough.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like Drunk Uncle gonna warm us up nicely... AND quick @ hr144