December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.

[HighlandExperience]

North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =)

[Kayla]

I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.

 

Don't worry that's still coming too.

[Goducks09]

For the love of God...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_45.png

 

*Epic blizzard in PDX*.  Cautiously optimistic...although it is clown range.  

[Front Ranger]

I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.

 

I feel that way sometimes, too.

 

Then again, until we see something like that run actually happen, it's an apples to oranges comparison. 

[dairyd]

It's not cold enough unless the 498 line touches BLI along with 80 kt Fraser outflow.

 

Only if you come out here in that stuff and help me keep the water troughs and tractors thawed out for the livestock

[Deweydog]

I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.

Nothing's going on at the moment. Even tomorrow's snow is still just modeled.

[EA_TTD]

I feel like people get more excited about modeled weather than real weather here.

Being in Troutdale, I'm meh on tomorrow but really looking forward to Wednesday when the wind ramps up and to the overrunning event on Thursday-Friday.  But to see the eye candy that the 00z spat out....even though the likelihood is low, is something else in the land of 43 degree rain.

[Kayla]

00z WRF keeps the precip going around PDX through tomorrow night now (all snow).

[seattleweatherguy]

North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =)

Perfect spot bingo!

[Jesse]

Nothing's going on at the moment. Even tomorrow's snow is still just modeled.

It just snowed at your house for he first time this season!!!!!!!

[HighlandExperience]

4KM WRF shows a solid 6-12 inches over North King County Monday night. 

[FroYoBro]

The HRRR doesn't look very impressive for the Portland area tomorrow morning. 

[Perturbed Member]

The Canadian is to be ignored.

 

Are they that bad?

[Gradient Keeper]

Here is a Forecast Trend I just put together of the past 8 GFS runs. Watch what it does with the low. I think the cold push is going to win out with the low on Wednesday-Thursday. Look at the jet off Cali. Weak, disorganized. Look for future runs to take the system further south perhaps North Bend to Crescent City. MBG

 

http://imgur.com/NXPVrmE

 

00z was kind of cold. Wow! I like how the timing of the second potential blast has moved ahead. Also, if the trend continues with that offshore low Wednesday-Thursday dropping south we aren't going to moderate much. Fun ahead. It's coming. It's not a matter of IF, rather when.

[Jesse]

I feel that way sometimes, too.

 

Then again, until we see something like that run actually happen, it's an apples to oranges comparison.

This is true. This place would probably be going pretty nuts.

[Deweydog]

It just snowed at your house for he first time this season!!!!!!!

It stopped.

[EA_TTD]

PDX AFD

 

Temperatures are cooling
rapidly across the area tonight in the wake of a strong cold FRONT,
and snow levels are plummeting fast. We have received reports of
light accumulating snow this evening at elevations as low as 600
feet, and a few reports of snow mixed with rain at around 300 feet.
The showers tonight will be occasional and infrequent. Clearing
between the showers will allow temperatures to cool even more
quickly, and prime the atmosphere for snow with the next FRONT.

The forecast confidence of low elevation snow early Monday morning
has increased. There is still uncertainty of whether road surfaces
will cool enough for accumulating snow at elevations below 300 feet,
but there is a good chance that some areas near the river and valley
floor will have accumulating snow when the main precipitation band
moves through. Unfortunately, the timing of this for the Willamette
Valley and the I-5 Corridor is right during the morning commute. Any
falling snow, whether it sticks or not during the morning commute
will likely have noticeable traffic impacts and have removed the
elevation limitation from the Portland and Vancouver Metro area
winter weather advisory.

Nam bufr soundings show potential for snow in the Salem area during
the morning commute as well, and have issued a winter weather
advisory for the central Willamette Valley.

[MikeInEverett]

Light snow!

[mountainman]

looks like a powerful CZ will set up for parts of Washington.  The usual areas.  Lucky for those of u!

[Deweydog]

What if it's still a matter of if? When will we know it's a matter of when? When did they know it was a matter of when not if in 1950? 1862?

[Heavy Snow]

55% of the 12z GFS ensemble members showed an Arctic Blast at one point in their run. I bet the number will be closer to 75% now for the 00z GFS ensembles.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like another slow night in here..... NOT!!! Omg freaking freeztastic!!!

[Deweydog]

That is a helluva CZ.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

North Seattle really gets slammed on the 4KM WRF. Some spots in the czone could easily see 6+ inches. Hope we can get that C-Zone to move south a bit more =)

 

Ugh, the models have not been friendly to Victoria for tomorrow's event. That said the way things have trended for Thursday would be nothing short of amazing.

[Front Ranger]

That is a helluva CZ.

 

Weren't people making comparisons to Nov 2006 the other day?

[Deweydog]

Weren't people making comparisons to Nov 2006 the other day?

It's my baby!

[Cold front]

Forks dropped to 33, another good sign

[Jesse]

00z WRF keeps the precip going around PDX through tomorrow night now (all snow).

Good to hear.

[IbrChris]

Only if you come out here in that stuff and help me keep the water troughs and tractors thawed out for the livestock

Yeah it wasn't fun last January in Idaho trying to thaw my windshield wiper fluid when it got down to -17 F.

[Front Ranger]

As far as the short term Mon/Tue snow goes...the hi-res models are varying wildly on who will get what amount of snow. It's so hard to predict lowland snowfall in the PNW. Wouldn't read much into any one model run.

 

But, it does look like most folks on here will get some snow and there's a good chance some will see significant amounts (3"+). That's pretty cool.

[Heavy Snow]

Going to take a break, be back in an hour or so to talk about KING EURO.

[Deweydog]

Good to hear.

Almost seems to hint at a little burst of precip associated with the Arctic "front." Or it could just be a coincidence...

[Kayla]

PDX AFD

 

Temperatures are cooling

rapidly across the area tonight in the wake of a strong cold FRONT,

and snow levels are plummeting fast. We have received reports of

light accumulating snow this evening at elevations as low as 600

feet, and a few reports of snow mixed with rain at around 300 feet.

The showers tonight will be occasional and infrequent. Clearing

between the showers will allow temperatures to cool even more

quickly, and prime the atmosphere for snow with the next FRONT.

 

The forecast confidence of low elevation snow early Monday morning

has increased. There is still uncertainty of whether road surfaces

will cool enough for accumulating snow at elevations below 300 feet,

but there is a good chance that some areas near the river and valley

floor will have accumulating snow when the main precipitation band

moves through. Unfortunately, the timing of this for the Willamette

Valley and the I-5 Corridor is right during the morning commute. Any

falling snow, whether it sticks or not during the morning commute

will likely have noticeable traffic impacts and have removed the

elevation limitation from the Portland and Vancouver Metro area

winter weather advisory.

 

Nam bufr soundings show potential for snow in the Salem area during

the morning commute as well, and have issued a winter weather

advisory for the central Willamette Valley.

 

Interesting. They actually sound pretty confident of accumulating snow down around PDX now.

[Bryant]

Ugh, the models have not been friendly to Victoria for tomorrow's event. That said the way things have trended for Thursday would be nothing short of amazing.

Really sad WRF run for whatcom county, especially when compared to this mornings run

[Jesse]

Interesting. They actually sound pretty confident of accumulating snow down around PDX now.

 

Kiss of death.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

32 at EUG

[Bodhijr]

King Euro says...

[FroYoBro]

32 at EUG

 

So the south wind will actually cool us down!

[Jesse]

Almost seems to hint at a little burst of precip associated with the Arctic "front." Or it could just be a coincidence...

 

I was thinking the same thing.