December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Is there a site to check model accuracy?

The sky.

[HighlandExperience]

12z GEM not on board with 06z/12z GFS for Thursday. Only shows 1-4 inches for Western WA. 12z Euro will be telling.

 

GEM in general does not have nearly as much snow throughout the run as any previous GFS run - takes most of the lows too far North.

 

I'd be happy with the snow totals shown on last nights EURO run. 1-4 inches is just weak considering all the anticipation we have experienced. 

[χιόνι (chióni)]

I will check with Cliff Mass?

[stuffradio]

Yoda?

That would be,

"A beautiful home you have" in Yoda speak.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We are shown to get over a foot worth of snow between now and that time-frame. Come on man.....

Possibly... 

[MossMan]

D**n Canadians. Those European's better step up.

[MossMan]

12z GEM not on board with 06z/12z GFS for Thursday. Only shows 1-4 inches for Western WA. 12z Euro will be telling.

 

GEM in general does not have nearly as much snow throughout the run as any previous GFS run - takes most of the lows too far North.

Is there any difference between last nights GEM and this mornings? Has it gotten worse? Trend?

[luvssnow_spokane]

12z WRF looks much, much better for Thursday than 00z. Pretty close to the 00z Euro totals actually.

 

Although the WRF and I have some differences to settle after yesterday.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016120612/images_d2/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

What the hell!?... I am sitting right in the middle of the zero (no) snow spot!!? Again!! D**n swamp gas!

[Skagit Weather]

Just a bit higher resolution. I feel you about the swamp gas. There must be a leak up here as well.

 

[Skagit Weather]

Oh, also, first freeze of the year!!! Who even knew it could drop all the way to 27F?

[Randyc321]

The mm5 is going to bury western wa amd completely **** the hood canal up with 18 inches.

12z GFS looks to keep it all snow across Kitsap through 4 am Friday. Hr 72

Hr 78 looks to be warmer.

 

Your thoughts on scouring out cold?

I am new to Bainbridge this year.  I have no idea how it will go over here.  Seems like if the flow is coming from the SW the esat side of BI might be kind of sheltered.

 

Bainbridge Kid, what is you r experience with this?

[HighlandExperience]

Just a bit higher resolution. I feel you about the swamp gas. There must be a leak up here as well.

 

wasnow1206.jpg

The 4km snow totals are not that great for east Puget Sound lowlands. Hope that is wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

Just a bit higher resolution. I feel you about the swamp gas. There must be a leak up here as well.

 

wasnow1206.jpg

 

Wow, looks awesome here again.  16".  Probably a more likely result than yesterday's failure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

From what I hear the snow can really pile up on the Kitsap Pen

 

I dated a girl from there once. I asked her a lot of questions about it, but she didn't seem very interested. In me or answering my weather questions...

[ShawniganLake]

The 4km snow totals are not that great for east Puget Sound lowlands. Hope that is wrong.

Downsloping?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12z GFS looks to keep it all snow across Kitsap through 4 am Friday. Hr 72

Hr 78 looks to be warmer.Real hard to scour out the cold air over here. Further west the harder.Going off experience and what the 12z shows i dont think we would see a switch to rain. Usually what happens is it snows until the front passes amd then switches to a wet snow shower situation. It never really shows to warm up a ton. Might be fun.

 

 

Your thoughts on scouring out cold?

I am new to Bainbridge this year.  I have no idea how it will go over here.  Seems like if the flow is coming from the SW the esat side of BI might be kind of sheltered.

 

Bainbridge Kid, what is you r experience with this?

[HighlandExperience]

It's that D**n swamp gas leaking through the valleys.

 

In all seriousness, don't take it verbatim yet - look more for trends over the next 48 hours. Definitely a step in the right direction over 00z, that's most important.

True. At this point I'm taking WRF with a grain of salt. EURO precip map will be interesting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Downsloping?

That is a real problem for my area and where it is being shown. I think this could be a real factor and again just totally screw with our chances. I have seen it numerous times and feel that downsloping could be a real (realistic) issue and will not be surprised, specially based on normal tendencies with similar scenarios... I am expecting it.

[Sometimesdylan]

Good morning everyone.

 

13 outside right now. Think I'm getting some snow later this afternoon, models showing anywhere from 3-6 to 8-14 inches of snow tonight into tomorrow. The GFS has the most, but has been consistently showing/growing in its forecast. The euro didn't show much until just yesterday. Overcast right now... something is coming in the sky.

 

Can't wait for finals to get done with. I wanna be done with OB and Pediatric nursing!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From what I hear the snow can really pile up on the Kitsap Pen

 

I dated a girl from there once. I asked her a lot of questions about it, but she didn't seem very interested. In me or answering my weather questions...

Big time. I've lived out here a long time and i have seen it drop 2ft of snow with these upslope situations.Back in feb of 94 or 95 there was 30 inches on the canal at sea level and just a couple in seattle if any.

[Randyc321]

From what I hear the snow can really pile up on the Kitsap Pen

 

I dated a girl from there once. I asked her a lot of questions about it, but she didn't seem very interested. In me or answering my weather questions...

 

 

 

It definitely can.  Especially with the flow shown for Thursday. Also we don't always scour out cold.

 

Celebrate cold air damming in this land of warm anomalies!   

[stuffradio]

12Z GFS long range has its ups and downs. I think the main take away should be even though it dramatically warms up, 850s stay below 0 at the Canadian border, and crashes again by the Winter Solstice. That's extreme long range though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

True. At this point I'm taking WRF with a grain of salt. EURO precip map will be interesting.

Honestly I doubt the Euro maps... seems way overdone...

[seattleweatherguy]

Just a bit higher resolution. I feel you about the swamp gas. There must be a leak up here as well.

 

wasnow1206.jpg

4inches for bothell I will take it

[HighlandExperience]

[Randyc321]

 

12z GFS looks to keep it all snow across Kitsap through 4 am Friday. Hr 72

Hr 78 looks to be warmer.Real hard to scour out the cold air over here. Further west the harder.Going off experience and what the 12z shows i dont think we would see a switch to rain. Usually what happens is it snows until the front passes amd then switches to a wet snow shower situation. It never really shows to warm up a ton. Might be fun.

 

 

Your thoughts on scouring out cold?

I am new to Bainbridge this year.  I have no idea how it will go over here.  Seems like if the flow is coming from the SW the esat side of BI might be kind of sheltered.

 

Bainbridge Kid, what is you r experience with this?

Clarification.  I have lived in Kitsap for 10 years.  Just moved to BI from Chico this Fall.

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Living in Poulsbo, I'm about 6 miles away from Hood Canal Bridge.  Often times, they have snow at the bridge--a lot of snow at times, whereas I have perhaps a skiff.  So, when predictions are made about Hood Canal and Kitsap, they are not speaking of Poulsbo and Bainbridge Island.  Cold pooling does not seem to exist over here since we are so far removed from the Olympics.  That's not to say I don't expect to do well during Thursday, just not as good as areas closer to Hood Canal.  Snowmizer will do very well where he is--he will probably get about 15 inches.  Poulsbo and Bainbridge, probably closer to 5 inches or so--before we get scoured out, although I'm starting to believe that the depth of the cold may prevent a complete scouring--and we may get a mix of rain/snow near the end of the event.

 

I'll take it though.  Haven't seen snow in 3 years over here--and still never got a flake yesterday, although we got rain that froze this morning.  We are the swamp of Kitsap County.

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS looks to keep it all snow across Kitsap through 4 am Friday. Hr 72

Hr 78 looks to be warmer.

 

Your thoughts on scouring out cold?

I am new to Bainbridge this year.  I have no idea how it will go over here.  Seems like if the flow is coming from the SW the esat side of BI might be kind of sheltered.

 

Bainbridge Kid, what is you r experience with this?

What's your elevation? 

 

Snow on Bainbridge is almost always very elevation dependent. In the 07/08 Winter for example I got 19" at 270 feet and my friend who lives on the water never even saw sticking snow.

 

Generally, I would say in cold air damming setups, once we start as snow, we usually don't switch to rain as long as we hold onto the SE wind. But the East side of the Island is less snowy than the West because that offshore flow is still coming off the 50 degree Sound.

[FroYoBro]

At this point I am just worried about going to work on Thursday because the schools will see no snow at 6 am. Then it will snow mid morning and I'll be stuck there for a horrible commute home. I hope the school districts are wise enough to cancel school if it still looks like a sure thing Wednesday night. 

[Randyc321]

What's your elevation? 

 

Snow on Bainbridge is almost always very elevation dependent. In the 07/08 Winter for example I got 19" at 270 feet and my friend who lives on the water never even saw sticking snow.

 

Generally, I would say in cold air damming setups, once we start as snow, we usually don't switch to rain as long as we hold onto the SE wind. But the East side of the Island is less snowy than the West because that offshore flow is still coming off the 50 degree Sound.

Thanks for that.  And a correction.  I meant SE flow, not SW. 

 

Elevation is about the same as Safeway.  About a half mile up Ferncliff from the ferry dock.

Around 150'.

 

Thanks

[Heavy Snow]

Let's go KING EURO!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As of right now this is what I am thinking for Thursday snow in W. Oregon

 

South Valley (Eugene): 0-T maybe a dusting, but probably nothing.

 

Central Valley (Salem, Albany): 0-2" I see 50/50 odds of precip starting as snow in the mid-valley probably 25% chance up to an inch falls. Maybe 2" over along the east slopes of the coast range. Places on the east side of the valley Stayton, Silverton, Molalla probably get no accumulating snow.

 

North Valley/Metro: T-3" Precip likely starts as snow everywhere, but quickly transitions when heavier precip arrives. Possible accumulations west side with cold air damning and NE close to the gorge. The heart of the city/south Metro areas like Wilsonville get T-1"

[TT-SEA]

27 and sunny here at 10 a.m.

[Perturbed Member]

As of right now this is what I am thinking for Thursday snow in W. Oregon

 

South Valley (Eugene): 0-T maybe a dusting, but probably nothing.

 

Central Valley (Salem, Albany): 0-2" I see 50/50 odds of precip starting as snow in the mid-valley probably 25% chance up to an inch falls. Maybe 2" over along the east slopes of the coast range. Places on the east side of the valley Stayton, Silverton, Molalla probably get no accumulating snow.

 

North Valley/Metro: T-3" Precip likely starts as snow everywhere, but quickly transitions when heavier precip arrives. Possible accumulations west side with cold air damning and NE close to the gorge. The heart of the city/south Metro areas like Wilsonville get T-1"

 

I think PDX sees at least 2 inches before switching even on the least favorable modeled outcomes.

[Front Ranger]

At this point I am just worried about going to work on Thursday because the schools will see no snow at 6 am. Then it will snow mid morning and I'll be stuck there for a horrible commute home. I hope the school districts are wise enough to cancel school if it still looks like a sure thing Wednesday night. 

 

C'mon, dude. Take one for the team.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks even further south and weaker with low.

 

[Timmy]

New euro is a weak disorganized double low. This could bode well

[FroYoBro]

C'mon, dude. Take one for the team.

 

Trust me, I am still rooting for a bunch of snow. Just hope the school district is smart and doesn't get a bunch of people stuck at schools. 

[Kayla]

At this rate everyone stays dry come Thursday!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think PDX sees at least 2 inches before switching even on the least favorable modeled outcomes.

 

New euro is a weak disorganized double low. This could bode well

 

Of course I made this prediction before the 12z Euro...I'll have final thoughts tomorrow (Think Jerry's final thought type of wisdom). But most models showed a lot of the metro getting sticking snow yesterday and look how that turned out. Don't live or die by the snow maps.