Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Menstrual Monday, sending the Japanese model to internment camp...Dewey's on one politically incorrect roll today! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah, I'm cautiously optimistic at the moment. It's going to be an intense next 48 hours. This is what we live for. Yep, us PNW weather nerds wait years for these type of events. BTW this forum having limited number of likes per day is stupid. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Warm here in the swamp. Can't wait for the cold and snow to arrive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Turn down tuesday tomorrow? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yep, us PNW weather nerds wait years for these type of events. BTW this forum having limited number of likes per day is stupid. Yeah, we need it so bad. What I do is unlike my previous likes a day or two ago, then I can start giving likes again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Warm here in the swamp. Can't wait for the cold and snow to arrive. You were never included in the cold wave coming. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy.Yea, he was pretty general and not on any bandwagon yet. Probably pretty smart at this point. He knows better than anyone how this game is played. Way too early to be calling it as we know how quickly these bust. Models are fickle and pick up on stuff we can't even imagine. Wishcasting is for newcomers, kids, and well some of us dreamers. Hopefully we nail it but until we get a lot closer, I'm trying hard to temper my enthusiasm. On paper it looks good. Rocks and scissors wreck paper. Patience has to be the rule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goducks09 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 This is definitely the type of situation where the 18z GFS actually means something... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yeah, we need it so bad. What I do is unlike my previous likes a day or two ago, then I can start giving likes again. maybe you should be more selective with your likes so they actually mean something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm aware that some of our more snow-deprived members don't want to hear it, but conditions in north Whatcom County have deteriorated a bit as we've moved through the day. Steady NE winds are making drifting snow a driving hazard between Lynden and Sumas. I haven't ventured to the northwest corner of the county (Ferndale, Blaine, Birch Bay), but I was hearing this morning that ice was a major problem out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yep, we are certainly in a good position for now but we still have a bit more 48 hours to go and the models never cease to amaze in their ability to f*ck you over even in the last second so we never can get too comfortable. Mark Nelsen posted something new on this blog which basically amounted to: "You might just get flurries or you might get a foot of snow, we will wait and see". He's going to wait for the 00z runs Tuesday night before he gives his real final forecast. Smart guy. I just saw his actual new post. I'm not surprised the WRF-GFS currently shows what it does. I hope he doesn't make a mistake of relying on it. It seems like it can't see the northern moisture. Take for instance the first snowstorm of Feb 2014. This is what the WRF-GFS showed a day out and what actually happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Menstrual Monday, sending the Japanese model to internment camp...Dewey's on one politically incorrect roll today!You did not get the memo?... It s now "Momentum Monday" Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z NAM holding the low back further West through hour 54. Looks like it will come further North from the 12z. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_42.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I'm aware that some of our more snow-deprived members don't want to hear it, but conditions in north Whatcom County have deteriorated a bit as we've moved through the day. Steady NE winds are making drifting snow a driving hazard between Lynden and Sumas. I haven't ventured to the northwest corner of the county (Ferndale, Blaine, Birch Bay), but I was hearing this morning that ice was a major problem out there.I have a friend that lives up there and she posted pics of the snow drifts up against her house...amazing that is happening only 35 or so minutes north of where I am (35 degree drizzle) Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 maybe you should be more selective with your likes so they actually mean something? Yeah, I'm being more selective with my likes now. Before I was handing it out like candy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z NAM holding the low back further West through hour 54. Looks like it will come further North from the 12z. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_42.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I just saw his actual new post. I'm not surprised the WRF-GFS currently shows what it does. I hope he doesn't make a mistake of relying on it. It seems like it can't see the northern moisture. Take for instance the first snowstorm of Feb 2014. This is what the WRF-GFS showed a day out and what actually happened. I honestly don't think this has much to do with this event...At all really. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z NAM holding the low back further West through hour 54. Looks like it will come further North from the 12z. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_wus_42.pngKeep headed north little buddy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the namIt looks good to me. This place is so bipolar at times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yep. 18z NAM buries Puget Sound. I'm honestly still slightly more worried about this thing shifting too far North than staying too far South. And that's for Seattle. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 I honestly don't think this has much to do with this event...At all really. Maybe but the regular 12z GFS shows more precipitation amounts farther North than the 12z WRF-GFS. I've noticed this with the WRF-GFS for a while now underestimating precip rates up North. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the namIt's been doing great lately Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It looks good to me. This place is so bipolar at times.Even Screwallup gets buried.... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jesse did not take the NAM run all the well.. Rest in Peace Jesse... lTSrwa0.gifThis is pretty f*ucked up, even for my standards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Keep headed north little buddynam has been good recently 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Jesse did not take the NAM run all the well.. Rest in Peace Jesse... lTSrwa0.gif Please tell me this is fake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the nam Stupid question I know. But, here goes. What do the graduations on the snow legend denote? That can't be inches. Cm?Most of my posts are not answered, but will somebody please answer this one.Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Even Screwallup gets buried.... Naaa man Screwallup is in the pink. Mixed rain/snow and pud muddles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_46.pngscrew the namSeattle blizzard 2016! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Please tell me this is fake.Yes... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016121218/namconus_asnow_nwus_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Yes... Good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Stupid question I know. But, here goes. What do the graduations on the snow legend denote? That can't be inches.Most of my posts are not answered, but will somebody please answer this one.Thanksi honestly am not sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Naaa man Screwallup is in the pink. Mixed rain/snow and pud muddles.Nah swamp brothu that be snow ... ignore the pink details.. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Stupid question I know. But, here goes. What do the graduations on the snow legend denote? That can't be inches.Most of my posts are not answered, but will somebody please answer this one.ThanksIt's a prediction of intensity on radar. This is measured by dBZ which is essentially how much precipitation the radar beam is hitting over a given area. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 It's a prediction of intensity on radar. This is measured by dBZ which is essentially how much precipitation the radar beam is hitting over a given area.Thanks a bunch. You are usually a big help. Its appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nah swamp brothu that be snow ... ignore the pink details..Ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 18z NAM shows a track for Wed/Thu great for Puget Sound, borderline for Portland. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Like last night, even Seattle is flirting with disaster on the NAM. The drama continues... https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Oci1CuCht7E Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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