Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.Glad to hear, I can only compare (as stated above) to yesterday's 12z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer.This. Changes this run won't have a huge effect locally until sometime in week two, verbatim. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge is less amplified and further east at hr 168 compared tot the 12x euro yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 High temps PDXMonday 29Tuesday 26Wednesday 25 Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Our best hope is before the front passes. Downslope NNE winds always kill our chances here. Where you at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EA_TTD Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 East, west, north, south...heck, put the D**n thing over Lake Minnetonka if it gives me appreciable cold and snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 High temps PDXMonday 29Tuesday 26Wednesday 25 Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situationsEuro or your forecast? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Where you at?Hayden, Id Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm all for fair and balance commentary but can we all please have the facts before hitting those square boxes?? At hour 138, the euro has PDX at -13c 850mb temps. Compare that to last night when it was -11c for the same time. Things are NOT trending warmer. Yesterday: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122712&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=176 Today: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122812&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=76 Not a huge difference, and probably not all that meaningful but every degree C matters!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro or your forecast?Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euro or your forecast? Euro Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 High temps PDXMonday 29Tuesday 26Wednesday 25 Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations That sounds about right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Euronice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yesterday: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122712&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=176 Today: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2016122812&fh=144&xpos=0&ypos=76 Not a huge difference, and probably not all that meaningful but every degree C matters!!! Exactly, it's the same. There will always be some variance in the 850 temps. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge is significantly further east at hour 192. Could be a huge cold inversion coming. Hopefully it retrogrades Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ridge is less amplified and further east at hr 168 compared tot the 12x euro yesterday.You're trying really hard to prove a point that means nothing. GFS caved to the Euro, it's that simple. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Exactly, it's the same. There will always be some variance in the 850 temps. You just said it was colder? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 A bit, but it'd probably take a fairly sizable 500mb shift west at this point to ignite much juice ahead of the switch to offshore flow. With the models now locking in things appear pretty set for what would likely be a fairly uneventful transition. Do you think locations east PDX Metro at elevation have better chances for accumulations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 High temps PDXMonday 29Tuesday 26Wednesday 25 Drop 2-4 off that east of I-205 as it is always colder in these situations And lows for that same timeframe at PDX - 251816 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looks like a solid 25% increase in the 1-200mb U-wind integral. Quite a jump in the PV intensity. Also a more symmetrical response which allows it to resist structural damage from wave bombardment. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.BUT UNTIL THEN 18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You're trying really hard to prove a point that means nothing. GFS caved to the Euro, it's that simple.You must not be looking at the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You just said it was colder? Yes, by 2º at 850mb. The point I was trying to get across was not that it was colder but that it was not trending warmer. AKA it's the same. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Hr 216 looks good! Shortwave digging offshore, could be a snow maker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.BUT UNTIL THEN 18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes!I can't bare to look... Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Do you think locations east PDX Metro at elevation have better chances for accumulations? Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying. Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You must not be looking at the euro.You're looking at 6+ days to try and justify your arguments from last night In the near term, the gfs caved to the Euro. It's okay to be wrong 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I need a nap.......... How's that JMA looking. UKMET looks good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying. Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly. Seems like these setups over perform sometimes as colder air can enhance precip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
χιόνι (chióni) Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Everything rides on 00z runs tonight.BUT UNTIL THEN 18z GFS in 2 hours 39 minutes!Thanks for your analysis. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 You're looking at 6+ days to try and justify your arguments from last night In the near term, the gfs caved to the Euro. It's okay to be wrong slight trends early on will affect more pronounced downstream. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Your longitude won't make a difference since the switch to offshore gradients should be pretty uniform and swiftly drying. Saturday-Sunday morning definitely looks favorable above 1000' for good accumulations. But I don't expect just having a couple extra hundred feet of elevation will help much there when the flow is still southerly. Ok thanks. The 12z GFS looked a little better with accumulation amounts. There looks to be decent QPF, GFS says about 0.7" for the Arctic Front and higher amounts further east. Maybe we will get a New Year's Day surprise. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122800/144/qpf_048h.us_nw.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122812/108/sn10_acc.us_nw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just dig south another 200-250 miles! http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016122812/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 All models already appear to agree that the Thursday/Friday timeframe will be far more favorable for widespread snow chances than Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The end of the Euro looks like a lot of fun. Snowy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 slight trends early on will affect more pronounced downstream. Good lord. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 WOW big snows Day 9-10! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 WOW big snows Day 9-10! Yeah, I just saw the snow maps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah Jesse's issue is with me because I correctly predicted his snow was going to transition to sleet about a year ago.You've been a bit of a pill this year and I like to prod you for it every now and then. It's really no biggie though. You know I luv you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.