December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[FroYoBro]

Probably best not to look beyond 240.

[yea...thatguy]

I was telling the folks at Oregon Garden last night that they would probably be seeing some snow close to my location this weekend.

could be all snow due to heavier precip and already being snow covered, there is also no warming at 925 if you look closely...

[Heavy Snow]

SCORE! Monster 3 day snowstorm next Friday to Sunday! Reminds me of December 2008!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some light accumulations across Central Oregon this morning. 

[BLI snowman]

Canadian not so pretty.

[Deweydog]

Yikes! Could be another rough day around here.

[snow maniac]

I'm really starting to worry my area is going to get shafted on every snow event, every single model has me in the dry slot.

[bainbridgekid]

Saturday night looks a little like the first Arctic front on 12/14/08. Pretty widespread 1-3" around the Sound with that.

 

Next Friday/Saturday on the 12z GFS reminds me of 12/17-18/08, but most runs aren't nearly that snowgasmic yet then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FREAKOUT FRIDAY!

[FroYoBro]

Yikes! Could be another rough day around here.

 

Why? Nothing much has changed yet. It looks cold and then a chance of an overrunning event next weekend. That is basically all we know at this point. Doesn't sound too terrible. 

[liquidsnow]

1 week cold snap? I guess it's my fault...I got a BBQ for 60% off on the 27th.

 

Forever done with Charcoal.

[Deweydog]

Why? Nothing much has changed yet. It looks cold and then a chance of an overrunning event next weekend. That is basically all we know at this point. Doesn't sound too terrible.

Not at all, but have you spent much time here?

[FroYoBro]

Not at all, but have you spent much time here?

True. Has it always been this bad? I feel like it has almost been unreadable for the last couple of days. Maybe I'm just getting older. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian not so pretty.

GEM was nuts. Arctic blast, then damaging south wind storm.

[yea...thatguy]

Euro hinted at it last night (about the slider), GFS caught on this morning.

[Jesse]

True. Has it always been this bad? I feel like it has almost been unreadable for the last couple of days. Maybe I'm just getting older.

I think it has been worse than usual.

[Kayla]

Yikes! Could be another rough day around here.

 

Sub 516 thickness for 3.5 days has everyone down and plenty of snow action in the believable range. Why people??

[Deweydog]

True. Has it always been this bad? I feel like it has almost been unreadable for the last couple of days. Maybe I'm just getting older.

I think a lot of it was the overriding belief this has to be longer than a 5-7 day cold snap. There's still a decent chance it will be but with every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. Newton and Heavy Snow taught us that.

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS was snowy though!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a lot of it was the overriding belief this has to be longer than a 5-7 day cold snap. There's still a decent chance it will be but with every action there's an equal and opposite reaction. Newton and Heavy Snow taught us that.

 

People want to put our January demons to bed and they want to do it now.

[BLI snowman]

Why? Nothing much has changed yet. It looks cold and then a chance of an overrunning event next weekend. That is basically all we know at this point. Doesn't sound too terrible. 

 

I think as long as things look good for next weekend most folks will be happy.

 

That and the fact that it's looking maybe marginally better now for a widespread dusting on the ground going into this.

[Farmboy]

Looked like some pretty serious weather past hour 240 on the 12z GFS, clown range looked seriously interesting...  Big battleground being set up....

[Deweydog]

People want to put our January demons to bed and they want to do it now.

The first week of January is going to be extremely cold.

[Kayla]

I think as long as things look good for next weekend most folks will be happy.

 

That and the fact that it's looking maybe marginally better now for a widespread dusting on the ground going into this.

 

Agreed. Plenty to look forward to and a juicier front tomorrow night should calm the souls headed into this.

 

But if you don't get snow on by Sunday, don't freak out!! There is plenty more to come.

[Goducks09]

Is it just me, or are we seeing a wide array of solutions beyond day 8?  There isn't much agreement in the models for this time frame...  Until we see the Euro/GEM or Euro/GFS latch onto a solution, I'd hesitate to even guess what is going to happen.

[Deweydog]

Is it just me, or are we seeing a wide array of solutions beyond day 8? There isn't much agreement in the models for this time frame... Until we see the Euro/GEM or Euro/GFS latch onto a solution, I'd hesitate to even guess what is going to happen.

The message right now is a transition of some kind is likely in the Friday-Sunday period. Maybe even Thursday if you manage to convince yourself the Canadian hasn't been hot garbage in the long range lately.

[Gradient Keeper]

Is it just me, or are we seeing a wide array of solutions beyond day 8?  There isn't much agreement in the models for this time frame...  Until we see the Euro/GEM or Euro/GFS latch onto a solution, I'd hesitate to even guess what is going to happen.

There was a HUGE difference after day 5-6 on 12z GFS Op vs 6z.... Almost looked like feedback issues. Yes, overall there is no model consistency beyond day 5 I'd say.

[Heavy Snow]

Last runs 00z EURO and 00z/06z GFS-Para both show more of a "Storm King" setup. It will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS-Para and EURO show. If they end up verifying than the upgrade to the GFS will be a huge success.

[ShawniganLake]

12z 500mb ensemble is less bullish on crashing the block than the operation GFS

[Kayla]

Last runs 00z EURO and 00z/06z GFS-Para both show more of a "Storm King" setup. It will be interesting to see what the 12z GFS-Para and EURO show. If they end up verifying than the upgrade to the GFS will be a huge success.

 

Has anyone heard when they are going to implement the new GFS? Last I heard was this month...

[HighlandExperience]

WRF slightly improved snow over western wa since last nights run.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z 500mb ensemble is less bullish on crashing the block than the operation GFS

Op is clueless beyond day 5-6

[TT-SEA]

Meanwhile... its a gorgeous day.   Had some wet snowflakes and fog earlier this morning and thought it would be a soupy day but now there is barely a cloud in the sky and the sun is shining.  

[Deweydog]

Op is clueless beyond day 5-6

The 203 maps posted over the last six days depicting 180+ hour images suggests not everyone is on board with that thinking.

[bainbridgekid]

Meanwhile... its a gorgeous day. Had some wet snowflakes and fog earlier this morning and thought it would be a soupy day but now there is barely a cloud in the sky and the sun is shining.

Get any accumulations last night?

[Front Ranger]

Probably best not to look beyond 240.

That's right. A very good rule of thumb.

[Deweydog]

That's right. A very good rule of thumb.

Everyone still looked. Except you.

[Kayla]

Maybe I wasn't wishcasting yesterday?! The models have indeed trended wetter with the slider along the front for Sunday. Blend of the 06z and 12z GFS/GEM this morning would give the PDX metro area 1-3" of snowfall while the NAVGEM has shown incredible persistence in showing 0.3 - 0.5" of precip for Sunday over the PDX area. Tough to discount a model completely when it has shown such persistence.

 

We may indeed go into this blast with a little bit of snow cover if the trend continues. Interested to see what the euro says today.

[Heavy Snow]

Has anyone heard when they are going to implement the new GFS? Last I heard was this month...

Thats a good question. I dont know. All I know its in beta mode for this month. It has done better than the regular GFS. While the regular GFS kept shoving this initial Arctic Blast more east the Para has held steady like the EURO. I dont know why I put to much weight on the 00z GFS last night.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EUro, Block a notch further west, Alaskan shortwave carving out SLIGHTLY better, PV bit further northwest.

Day 1

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016123012/024/500h_anom.na.png